190 Rio Hondo Dr · Shadybrook, TX 75757

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,023 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2016 0.57 ac lot $4/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lake living awaits in the desirable Shadybrook community on beautiful Lake Palestine! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,023 square feet of comfortable living space and the perfect opportunity to enjoy a relaxed East Texas lake lifestyle. Whether you're searching for a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment property, you'll love the convenience of community amenities including a swimming pool, park, and private boat ramp with easy access to Lake Palestine. Spend your days boating, fishing, kayaking, or simply enjoying stunning lake sunsets before returning home to unwind. Nestled among mature trees in a peaceful neighborhood, this property offers the ideal blend

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Swimming pool
• Private boat ramp

Tags

• LAKE PALESTINE
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• SWIMMING POOL
• PRIVATE BOAT RAMP
• MATURE TREES
• PEACEFUL NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $50 annual fee (about $4.17/month)

Exterior

• Home design: Single-story mobile home (manufactured); Located in Lake Palestine Shadybrook subdivision
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Lakefront on Lake Palestine

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Range
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.0% in Shadybrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,042 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bullard El (math 61% / reading 61%, grade B, #368 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 434 students, 36% FRL); Bullard Int (math 66% / reading 50%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 435 students, 26% FRL); Bullard H S (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 848 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 581 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.67%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-7,976
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $17,056
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75757

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $840/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,276

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $389	-5% $342	+0% $295	+5% $249	+10% $202
Rent	-10% $165	-5% $230	+0% $295	+5% $361	+10% $426
Rate	-1.0pp $379	-0.5pp $337	base $295	+0.5pp $253	+1.0pp $209

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 Pecan Dr Bullard, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,650	$1.21	44d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $165,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $840 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,179/yr (+$182/mo · 259.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$840
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $876
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$210
• After-tax cash flow: $3,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shadybrook

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1042
• US rank: #18541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shadybrook, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,977

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.57%
• Current HPI: 189.5215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $165,000 GTAR

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $840 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.