6919 River Mill Dr · Houston, TX 77379

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,876 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1977 7,370 sqft lot $101/sqft · 23% below area Est $245k · 23% under $49/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR SPECIAL!! GREAT OPPORTUNITY in an established Spring neighborhood! Situated on a quiet, tree-lined street, this home offers strong potential for an investor or buyer ready to bring their vision to life. The property features a spacious layout, generous room sizes, and a large backyard with plenty of possibilities for renovation and customization. While the home does need repairs and updating, the location and floorplan provide an excellent foundation to create something special. Conveniently located near Meyer Park, The Woodlands, shopping, dining, and major roadways including Grand Parkway 99 and I-45. Opportunity, location, and potential all come together here…DON’T

Key facts

• 7,370 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Oakwood Glen community association; Annual association fee; Community playground; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (entry level: First); Built in 1977; Facing direction: Not specified
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Private yard; Backs to greenbelt/park; Cleared lot; Side yard; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Breakfast nook
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First level); Additional bedrooms (First level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (First level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning; Thermostat (energy-efficient)
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Tile counters; Window treatments / coverings; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Gas fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Klein ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 634 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.49%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,265
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -22.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6919 River Mill Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,883 (+0%)	1mo	$189,000	$100	99
7015 Oakwood Glen Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,810 (-4%)	4mo	$206,000	$114	84
17655 Seven Pines Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,902 (+1%)	4mo	$274,900	$145	79
6907 Five Forks Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,799 (-4%)	2mo	$249,000	$138	79
6910 Norvara Trl	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,862 (-1%)	0mo	$249,000	$134	76
17610 Mill Springs Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,954 (+4%)	7mo	$250,000	$128	76
7202 N Fawn River Cir	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,770 (-6%)	1mo	$248,000	$140	74
6903 Norvara Trl	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,780 (-5%)	1mo	$240,000	$135	69
17505 C Deer Creek Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-14%)	1mo	$340,000	$211	61
7019 Sandy Knolls Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,624 (-13%)	1mo	$238,000	$147	59
17406 Telegraph Creek Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,151 (+15%)	5mo	$310,000	$144	56
7122 Maxwood Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,147 (+14%)	6mo	$278,500	$130	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-24,217
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-28,756
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77379

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 634
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$395 /mo · $4,743/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$49
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,917

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $305	-5% $251	+0% $198	+5% $144	+10% $91
Rent	-10% $27	-5% $112	+0% $198	+5% $283	+10% $369
Rate	-1.0pp $293	-0.5pp $246	base $198	+0.5pp $149	+1.0pp $99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17743 Seven Pines Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,795	$1.23	9d	1	0.41mi
17111 Oakwood Chase Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	1704	$1,800	$1.06	25d	1	0.42mi
6415 Willow Pine Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2499	$2,800	$1.12	45d	1	0.62mi
7410 Songwind Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1885	$1,995	$1.06	23d	1	0.92mi
7315 Spg Cypress Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	930	$2,065	$2.22	0d	20	1.07mi
7042 Bristol Memorial Dr Spring, TX	4.0	3.0	2443	$2,650	$1.08	14d	1	1.11mi
7015 Windy Run Ct Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2186	$5,500	$2.52	45d	1	1.15mi
19310 T C Jester Blvd Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$2,335	$2.24	4d	10	1.30mi
5710 Louetta Rd Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1310	$1,513	$1.15	25d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $49 · $588/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 707-char remark
2. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 707-char remark
3. 2026-04-29
   listed $189,000 Active 707-char remark
4. 2026-04-14
   historical
5. 2026-04-13
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2026-03-05
   status Active
7. 2026-02-19
   status Pending
8. 2026-02-06
   status Active
9. 2026-01-25
   status Pending
10. 2026-01-13
    listed $200,000 Active
11. 2026-01-13
    historical
12. 2025-12-17
    price $215,000
13. 2025-12-17
    status Active
14. 2025-12-11
    historical Active Under Contract
15. 2025-11-17
    listed $220,000 Active
16. 2025-11-17
    historical
17. 2025-10-15
    listed $230,000 Active
18. 2012-03-15
    soldstatus
19. 2012-03-14
    soldstatus
20. 2012-02-13
    historical
21. 2012-01-09
    listed $80,000
22. 2011-08-11
    historical
23. 2011-05-04
    listed $78,000
24. 2008-07-29
    soldstatus
25. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,743 · $395/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,743 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$4,743
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,080
• − Management: −$2,080
• − HOA: −$588
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$517
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$124
• After-tax cash flow: $2,498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 85,190
• Household income: $107,486
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2220.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 11% Asian 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.58%
• Current HPI: 218.9608
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+142.3% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-06-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2012-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-03-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-02-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-01-09 Listed $80,000 HARMLS
• 2011-08-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-05-04 Listed $78,000 HARMLS
• 2008-07-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,743 · -9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.