5823 Silver Moonlight Dr · Ellenton, FL 34221

$414,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,605 sqft · Land · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 6,000 sqft lot $120/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Under Construction. ALL CLOSING COSTS PAID, $5,000 towards upgrades + Special Interest Rates with the use of our preferred lender - Now through 3/31.This two-story, all concrete block constructed home has a large open-concept downstairs with a kitchen overlooking the living and dining room. The kitchen comes equipped with a refrigerator, electric range, microwave and built-in dishwasher. The first floor also features a flex room that provides an area for work or for play, a bedroom, full bathroom, and an outdoor patio. The second floor includes an expansive Bedroom 1, three additional bedrooms that surround a second living area, a third full bathroom,

Key facts

• Second living area
• Flex room
• Expansive bedroom 1

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DOWNSTAIRS
• FLEX ROOM
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• EXPANSIVE BEDROOM 1
• SECOND LIVING AREA

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $414k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-341 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $354k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $297k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,973/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 1193% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($408k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $297,311 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.53%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-97,600
• Equity at exit: $61,729

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-146,900
• Equity at exit: $35,795

Cash invested: $115,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,973 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,171
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,719/yr
• Insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $-341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,405

Max offer price $353,698

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,500
• Closing costs: $12,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6117 Tremeza Pl Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,321	$1.20	3d	1	0.28mi
5520 Flagstone Trl Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2248	$3,200	$1.42	23d	1	0.32mi
5514 Night Owl Ter Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1752	$2,650	$1.51	15d	1	0.40mi
5141 Rocky Coast Pl Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,650	$1.17	3d	1	0.50mi
6211 Kenava Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2518	$2,800	$1.11	23d	1	0.54mi
4916 Willow Breeze Way Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	1997	$2,245	$1.12	1d	1	0.87mi
7127 48th Ave E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2113	$1,800	$0.85	23d	1	0.91mi
3616 Mossy Limb Ct Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	2068	$2,500	$1.21	11d	1	1.04mi
4042 Wayfarer Way Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,600	$1.42	15d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   price $414,000
3. 2026-03-09
   listed $416,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,719 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,436 · $286/mo
• Expected delta: +$718/yr (+$60/mo · 26.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,190
• − Property taxes: −$2,719
• − Insurance: −$2,070
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,854
• − Management: −$2,854
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$12,044
• Taxable loss: −$11,494
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,758
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $414,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Listed $416,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+20.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,719 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.