102 Hartley Dr · Smithfield, NC 27577

$215,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,340 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 145 Days on market

Built 1962 0.42 ac lot Est $265k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brick Ranch in West Smithfield on . 42 acre lot. 3 Bedrooms, 1 Full Bath, 1 Half Bath and 1,362 Sq Ft. Located within the City Limits of Smithfield. HVAC is 2024. Home is SOLD AS IS.

Key facts

• Hvac is 2024
• 42 acre lot
• 0.42 acre lot

Tags

• 42 ACRE LOT
• CITY LIMITS OF SMITHFIELD
• HVAC IS 2024

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Single-story house
• Construction: Brick veneer and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Lot approximately 0.43 acre; Residential zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas pack heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen and dining room combined; Laminate countertops
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.8% in Smithfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#259 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wilson'S Mills Elementary (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,175 of 1,410 statewide, top 84%, 503 students, 82% FRL); Smithfield Middle (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #385 of 475 statewide, top 81%, 501 students, 99% FRL); Smithfield-Selma High (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #454 of 535 statewide, top 85%, 1,503 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 41% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Johnston County Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 407 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $215k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.81%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Hartley Dr	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,500 (+12%)	5mo	$195,500	$130	71
415 Barbour Rd	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,257 (-6%)	1mo	$222,000	$177	69
100-A Pace St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,399 (+4%)	14mo	$294,000	$210	67
215 Britt St	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,362 (+2%)	5mo	$259,999	$191	65
204 Britt St	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,399 (+4%)	9mo	$180,000	$129	64
503 Laurel Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,262 (-6%)	2mo	$250,000	$198	59
104 Old Farm Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,159 (-14%)	3mo	$270,000	$233	56
125 Brook Pl	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+12%)	8mo	$264,000	$175	55
101 Poplar Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-10%)	8mo	$259,900	$216	53
124 Strickland Dr	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,169 (-13%)	13mo	$245,000	$210	52
204 Barbour Rd	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (+8%)	12mo	$268,000	$185	49
301 Laurel Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,491 (+11%)	15mo	$296,000	$199	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-34,615
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-44,220
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27577

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 407
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,895 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,265/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,780

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $213	-5% $152	+0% $91	+5% $30	+10% $-31
Rent	-10% $-59	-5% $16	+0% $91	+5% $166	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $199	-0.5pp $146	base $91	+0.5pp $35	+1.0pp $-21

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
303 Sunrise Ave Smithfield, NC	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,675	$1.46	25d	1	0.36mi
206 Britt St Smithfield, NC	3.0	1.0	1118	$1,650	$1.48	25d	1	0.44mi
170 W Saltgrass Ln Smithfield, NC	4.0	2.5	1495	$2,500	$1.67	25d	1	1.16mi
296 Thompson Overlook Way Unit 94 Smithfield, NC	3.0	2.5	1792	$1,700	$0.95	25d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $215,000 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $215,000
17. 2026-01-27
    listed $225,750 Active
18. 2006-02-28
    soldstatus $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,265 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,265 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,737
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,265
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,819
• − Management: −$1,819
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$2,539
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$609
• After-tax cash flow: $1,702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Smithfield

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #259
• US rank: #11380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithfield, NC
• County: Johnston County · 175,441 people
• City population: 28,354
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 28,354
• Household income: $62,758
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 919.0

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 19% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.11%
• Current HPI: 232.1552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+65.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $215,000 TMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $225,750 TMLS
• 2006-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,265 · +59.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.