140 Eby Ln · Middletown, PA 17057

$69,800

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 780 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2022 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($824/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 3.7% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#214 in PA, #1,886 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Middletown Area SD (suburban): math 31% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #368 of 539 in PA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Middletown Area Hs (math 72% / reading 10%, grade F, #251 of 437 statewide, top 58%, 747 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 146 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,706 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.41%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-8,410
• Equity at exit: $10,407

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-7,548
• Equity at exit: $6,035

Cash invested: $19,544 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17057

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,251 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$366
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,174/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,164

Max offer price $69,800

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $108	-5% $88	+0% $69	+5% $49	+10% $29
Rent	-10% $-30	-5% $19	+0% $69	+5% $118	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $104	-0.5pp $86	base $69	+0.5pp $51	+1.0pp $32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,450
• Closing costs: $2,094
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 Aspen St Unit 1 Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	864	$1,495	$1.73	15d	1	0.20mi
105 Woodland Ave Middletown, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	996	$1,550	$1.56	15d	9	0.60mi
43 E Main St Apt 4 Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	45d	1	0.89mi
1900 Pineford Dr Middletown, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1020	$1,125	$1.10	14d	1	0.91mi
213 W Main St Unit A Middletown, PA	1.0	1.0	820	$985	$1.20	24d	1	1.10mi
213 S Union St Apt 1 Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	780	$1,400	$1.79	15d	1	1.38mi
219 S Union St Unit 2nd Floor Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	44d	1	1.39mi
219 S Union St Fl REAR Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	15d	1	1.39mi
1 Ann St Middletown, PA	1.0	1.0	700	$975	$1.39	15d	1	1.40mi
167 Ann St Unit 4 Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	15d	1	1.41mi
233 Ann St Unit 233 Upper Middletown, PA	1.0	1.0	800	$1,175	$1.47	24d	1	1.42mi
418 Wilson St Unit W10 Middletown, PA	1.0	1.0	675	$825	$1.22	15d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2023-09-11
   status Pending
2. 2023-08-19
   price $69,800
3. 2023-07-18
   listed $68,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,174 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,174 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 88% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,910
• − Property taxes: −$1,174
• − Insurance: −$5,468
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,201
• − Management: −$1,201
• − Depreciation: −$2,031
• Taxable income: $27
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6
• After-tax cash flow: $818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215240
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $53,128
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5567
• State rank: #368 of 539 in PA

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #214
• US rank: #1886

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• City population: 23,560
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 23,560
• Household income: $73,407
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 748.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.17%
• Current HPI: 265.6077
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.58%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2023-09-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-08-19 Price Changed $69,800 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-07-18 Listed $68,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,174 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.