15153 Ram Rock Dr · Fort Worth, TX 76008

$367,085

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,834 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,011 sqft lot Est $363k · at est. $88/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful new D. R. Horton home in the Morningstar community located in highly sought-after Aledo ISD! The Portales floorplan, Elevation I, with an estimated Summer completion, offers a spacious single-story layout with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, designed for comfortable everyday living. The open-concept design features a generous family room that flows into the dining area and modern kitchen, creating an inviting space ideal for daily living and entertaining. The kitchen includes 42” upper cabinets with crown molding, cabinet hardware, soft-close drawers and cabinets, quartz countertops, a ceramic tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, and a pantr

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Quartz countertops
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• 42 UPPER CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• CERAMIC TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $367k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $311k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Aledo ISD (rural): math 66% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #11 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mccall El (math 60% / reading 64%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 570 students, 15% FRL); Aledo Middle (math 69% / reading 72%, grade A, #57 of 1,662 statewide, top 3%, 944 students, 11% FRL); Aledo H S (math 87% / reading 50%, grade B, #147 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 1,622 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 825 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $311,208 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.94%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $363,132
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15153 Ram Rock Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,834 (0%)	0mo	$367,085	$200	100
717 Bushman Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,834 (0%)	1mo	$364,585	$199	96
15041 Green Bluff Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,939 (+6%)	2mo	$439,900	$227	81
15149 Ram Rock Dr	0.01mi	4/2.5	2,035 (+11%)	0mo	$380,385	$187	79
712 Bushman Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,035 (+11%)	1mo	$382,185	$188	76
14841 Gladstone Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,876 (+2%)	0mo	$364,900	$195	72
15213 Supreme St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,002 (+9%)	2mo	$389,990	$195	71
14824 Complacent Way	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,853 (+1%)	0mo	$349,900	$189	68
14829 Complacent Way	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,816 (-1%)	0mo	$359,000	$198	67
404 Pickett Creek Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,860 (+1%)	2mo	$404,900	$218	58
15020 Green Bluff Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,860 (+1%)	2mo	$429,900	$231	58
213 Palmerston Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,100 (+14%)	0mo	$375,000	$179	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-67,386
• Equity at exit: $54,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-61,106
• Equity at exit: $31,739

Cash invested: $102,784 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76008

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 825
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,112 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,925
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$459 /mo · $5,506/yr
• Insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$654
• Net cashflow: $-166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,323

Max offer price $343,021

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $87	-5% $-39	+0% $-166	+5% $-293	+10% $-420
Rent	-10% $-412	-5% $-289	+0% $-166	+5% $-43	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $19	-0.5pp $-73	base $-166	+0.5pp $-261	+1.0pp $-358

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,771
• Closing costs: $11,013
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15049 Chipwood Dr Aledo, TX	3.0	3.0	2337	$3,500	$1.50	45d	1	0.75mi
616 Ardath Dr Aledo, TX	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,850	$1.39	14d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $88 · $1,056/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-12
   price $367,085
3. 2026-02-06
   listed $362,085 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,345
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,562
• − Property taxes: −$5,506
• − Insurance: −$1,835
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,988
• − Management: −$2,988
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$10,679
• Taxable loss: −$8,269
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,985
• After-tax cash flow: $-11/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Aledo ISD is in good condition with modern finishes and a spacious layout. It's move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both painting — refreshes interior and exterior
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both painting — refreshes interior and exterior ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aledo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807780
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $102,936
• Composite: 61.94/100
• National rank: #725
• State rank: #11 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,165
• Household income: $168,314
• Rent vs Own: 8.2% rent · 91.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 27.0

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.05%
• Current HPI: 242.9582
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $367,085 NTREIS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $362,085 NTREIS