7650 Rogers St · Machesney Park, IL 61115

$150,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,563 sqft · SingleFamily · 83 Days on market

Built 1932 0.36 ac lot Est $203k · 26% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

All new carpet. This 3 bedroom 2 story home sits on a large corner lot with fenced yard. Tiled entry ways, laminate flooring throughout kitchen and dinning room, Finished basement with half bath. Detached 2.5 car garage. Furnace and water heater under 5 years old. Harlem School district. Close to schools, shopping, and restaurants.

Key facts

• Lower-level rec room
• Half bath
• 2.5 car garage

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• U-SHAPED KITCHEN
• DEDICATED OFFICE AREA
• LOWER-LEVEL REC ROOM
• HALF BATH
• 2.5 CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential property

Exterior

• Parking: Detached concrete garage; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; 2 stories
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; 0.36-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Gas water heater; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.9% in Machesney Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#244 in IL, #4,425 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Maple Elem School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,141 of 2,056 statewide, top 59%, 410 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $81k; list at $150k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $141,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.13%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $203,190
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
825 Harlem Rd	0.12mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,504 (-4%)	2mo	$185,000	$123	79
8221 Eddington Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-0%)	7mo	$231,000	$148	70
8315 Ravere St	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,517 (-3%)	7mo	$195,000	$129	64
8217 Ravere St	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (-9%)	6mo	$185,000	$130	59
8325 Ravere St	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,746 (+12%)	5mo	$255,000	$146	57
8432 Ravere St	0.53mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,625 (+4%)	5mo	$224,900	$138	53
1105 Colonial Dr	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,736 (+11%)	3mo	$178,000	$103	49
7713 Mildred Rd	0.53mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,428 (-9%)	7mo	$76,000	$53	48
8640 Scott Ln	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,640 (+5%)	7mo	$289,900	$177	48
744 Drexel Blvd	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-10%)	4mo	$170,000	$121	46
1106 Colonial Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,740 (+11%)	7mo	$165,000	$95	44
8624 Scott Ln	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,404 (-10%)	6mo	$268,900	$192	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-8,320
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $13,612
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61115

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$303 /mo · $3,642/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,459

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1051 Minns Dr Unit 1051-3 Machesney Park, IL	2.0	2.0	1208	$1,700	$1.41	13d	1	1.05mi
1028 Minns Dr Unit 1028-D Machesney Park, IL	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,850	$1.51	21d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   price $150,000
3. 2026-04-08
   price $155,000
4. 2026-03-12
   price $165,000
5. 2026-03-02
   status Active
6. 2026-02-26
   historical
7. 2026-02-16
   listed $168,000 Active
8. 2017-12-27
   soldstatus $81,000
9. 2016-09-27
   soldstatus $70,000
10. 2016-09-26
    soldstatus $70,000 Closed Sale 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    All new carpet. This 3 bedroom 2 story home sits on a large corner lot with fenced yard. Tiled entry ways, laminate flooring throughout kitchen and dinning room, Finished basement with half bath. Detached 2.5 car garage. Furnace and water heater under 5 years old. Harlem School district. Close to schools, shopping, and restaurants.

11. 2016-09-26
    soldstatus $70,000 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    All new carpet. This 3 bedroom 2 story home sits on a large corner lot with fenced yard. Tiled entry ways, laminate flooring throughout kitchen and dinning room, Finished basement with half bath. Detached 2.5 car garage. Furnace and water heater under 5 years old. Harlem School district. Close to schools, shopping, and restaurants.

12. 2016-09-09
    status Pending 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    All new carpet. This 3 bedroom 2 story home sits on a large corner lot with fenced yard. Tiled entry ways, laminate flooring throughout kitchen and dinning room, Finished basement with half bath. Detached 2.5 car garage. Furnace and water heater under 5 years old. Harlem School district. Close to schools, shopping, and restaurants.

13. 2016-07-29
    status Reactivated 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    All new carpet. This 3 bedroom 2 story home sits on a large corner lot with fenced yard. Tiled entry ways, laminate flooring throughout kitchen and dinning room, Finished basement with half bath. Detached 2.5 car garage. Furnace and water heater under 5 years old. Harlem School district. Close to schools, shopping, and restaurants.

14. 2016-07-29
    listed $82,900 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    All new carpet. This 3 bedroom 2 story home sits on a large corner lot with fenced yard. Tiled entry ways, laminate flooring throughout kitchen and dinning room, Finished basement with half bath. Detached 2.5 car garage. Furnace and water heater under 5 years old. Harlem School district. Close to schools, shopping, and restaurants.

15. 2016-07-28
    historical 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    All new carpet. This 3 bedroom 2 story home sits on a large corner lot with fenced yard. Tiled entry ways, laminate flooring throughout kitchen and dinning room, Finished basement with half bath. Detached 2.5 car garage. Furnace and water heater under 5 years old. Harlem School district. Close to schools, shopping, and restaurants.

16. 2016-07-27
    listed $82,900 New 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    All new carpet. This 3 bedroom 2 story home sits on a large corner lot with fenced yard. Tiled entry ways, laminate flooring throughout kitchen and dinning room, Finished basement with half bath. Detached 2.5 car garage. Furnace and water heater under 5 years old. Harlem School district. Close to schools, shopping, and restaurants.

17. 1999-03-02
    soldstatus $85,000
18. 1993-08-31
    soldstatus $64,000
19. 1993-08-31
    soldstatus $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,642
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $732
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$176
• After-tax cash flow: $2,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlem UD 122
• NCES district ID: 1718240
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,228
• Composite: 18.01/100
• National rank: #8982
• State rank: #418 of 620 in IL

Livability — Machesney Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #4425

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Machesney Park, IL
• City population: 22,424
• Population (ZIP): 22,424

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.28%
• Current HPI: 272.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+134.4% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $150,000 NWIAR
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $155,000 NWIAR
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $165,000 NWIAR
• 2026-03-02 Relisted — NWIAR
• 2026-02-26 Delisted — NWIAR
• 2026-02-16 Listed $168,000 NWIAR
• 2017-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $81,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-26 Sold (MLS) $70,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-26 Sold (MLS) $70,000 NWIAR
• 2016-09-09 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-29 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-29 Listed $82,900 NWIAR
• 2016-07-28 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-27 Listed $82,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1993-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 1993-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,642 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.