137 Conewango Rd · Randolph, NY 14772

$50,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 1940 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Property sold as-is, where-is, seller will make no repairs. This is a short sale. Delayed negotiations until 9/16/25 at 3pm. This home sits in a great location across from the Cardinal Hills golf course on Conewango Rd also know as art 241 Randolph. It has loads of potential, a good floor plan, but in need of rehab. With three bedrooms and one bathroom, a generous size living room, and a second space that could be the perfect spot to gather with a large group of friends. There is an oversized one car attached garage. A partial basement. With natural gas that is connected, but turned off. Municipal water and a septic system. Easy access to interstate 86.

Key facts

• Municipal water
• Natural gas
• Septic system

Tags

• CARDINAL HILLS GOLF COURSE
• NATURAL GAS
• MUNICIPAL WATER
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• EASY ACCESS TO INTERSTATE 86

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $723 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#446 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Randolph Central School District (rural): math 46% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #370 of 590 in NY (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $50,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.97%
• DSCR: 3.76
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $67,087
• Equity at exit: $38,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.4%
• Equity multiple: 12.46×
• Total profit: $160,499
• Equity at exit: $76,739

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14772

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,352 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $723

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2025-09-18
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-08
   listed $50,000 Active
3. 2025-03-28
   historical
4. 2025-01-17
   price $70,000
5. 2025-01-03
   price $84,900
6. 2024-12-02
   price $89,900
7. 2024-11-18
   price $92,400
8. 2024-11-04
   price $94,900
9. 2024-10-21
   listed $99,000 Active
10. 2024-08-18
    historical
11. 2024-04-20
    price $99,000
12. 2024-03-28
    price $120,000
13. 2024-02-18
    listed $129,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,298
• − Management: −$1,298
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $8,378
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,011
• After-tax cash flow: $6,664/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Randolph Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624090
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,406
• Composite: 43.26/100
• National rank: #3053
• State rank: #370 of 590 in NY

Livability — Randolph

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #7842

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Randolph, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,431

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Polish 5% Iranian 5% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · German/W. Germanic 11% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.13%
• Current HPI: 306.799
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-61.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-18 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-08 Listed $50,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-03-28 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-01-17 Price Changed $70,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $84,900 UNYREIS
• 2024-12-02 Price Changed $89,900 UNYREIS
• 2024-11-18 Price Changed $92,400 UNYREIS
• 2024-11-04 Price Changed $94,900 UNYREIS
• 2024-10-21 Listed $99,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-08-18 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2024-04-20 Price Changed $99,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-03-28 Price Changed $120,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-02-18 Listed $129,000 UNYREIS