125 2nd St · Port Ewen, NY 12417

$269,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,282 sqft · SingleFamily · 133 Days on market

Built 1900 10,018 sqft lot Est $355k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Connelly is a peaceful Hamlet on the South side of the Rondout Creek. Only a couple of minutes to walk to three Marinas. A few minutes drive and you are at the North side of the Rondout, in Downtown Kingston. There you will find great restaurants, shops, and many waterfront activities. This home would be a nice place to grow up, or a pleasant place to enjoy your retirement years. Ideal for commuting to work North or South. New York State Thruway is about 5 miles in Kingston or 18 miles to New Paltz. The Hudson Valley Mall is about 6 miles away.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Pool
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Brick, combination and stone foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard (full fence); Above-ground pool; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Gas Range; Gas Water Heater; Refrigerator; Washer/Dryer; Storage space in unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (0.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.6% in Port Ewen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#469 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Kingston City School District (urban): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #355 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $121k; list at $269k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $236,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.23%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $355,114
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 W Pierpont St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,312 (+2%)	1mo	$90,000	$69	67
167-169 Bayard St Unit 169 Bayard	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,352 (+6%)	1mo	$450,000	$333	61
150 2nd St	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (-15%)	10mo	$300,000	$275	59
167 Lampman Ave Ave	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,300 (+1%)	11mo	$399,000	$307	59
41 Rondout Hbr	0.37mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,372 (+7%)	8mo	$420,000	$306	58
34 Indiana	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+5%)	24mo	$60,000	$45	57
241 Salem St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,296 (+1%)	17mo	$314,000	$242	51
64 Broadway	0.74mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,320 (+3%)	5mo	$459,000	$348	49
150 Hasbrouck Ave	0.71mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,196 (-7%)	1mo	$200,000	$167	48
39 N Broadway	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,143 (-11%)	0mo	$440,000	$385	42
188 Bowne St	0.65mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,192 (-7%)	22mo	$330,000	$277	33
202 Bayard St	0.74mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,167 (-9%)	23mo	$290,000	$249	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $49,351
• Equity at exit: $120,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $152,090
• Equity at exit: $186,405

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12417

• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,689 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$336 /mo · $4,035/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,353

Max offer price $269,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
180 W Chestnut St Kingston, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$2,000	$2.29	23d	3	0.68mi
111 Hudson Valley Lndg Kingston, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,305	$2.56	14d	5	0.86mi
156 Doris St Staatsburg, NY	4.0	2.0	1564	$3,750	$2.40	23d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $269,000 Pending 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,000 Active Under Contract 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,000 Active Under Contract 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,000 Active Under Contract 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $269,000 Active Under Contract 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $269,000 Active Under Contract 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $269,000 Active Under Contract 123 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $269,000 Active Under Contract 122 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $269,000 Active Under Contract 121 DOM
10. 2026-05-13
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2026-04-27
    status Active
12. 2026-04-16
    status Pending
13. 2026-03-20
    historical Active Under Contract
14. 2026-02-16
    price $269,000
15. 2026-01-18
    listed $299,000 Active
16. 2026-01-16
    historical $299,000
17. 2015-08-21
    soldstatus $121,025 550-char remark

    Show marketing remark (550 chars)

    Connelly is a peaceful Hamlet on the South side of the Rondout Creek. Only a couple of minutes to walk to three Marinas. A few minutes drive and you are at the North side of the Rondout, in Downtown Kingston. There you will find great restaurants, shops, and many waterfront activities. This home would be a nice place to grow up, or a pleasant place to enjoy your retirement years. Ideal for commuting to work North or South. New York State Thruway is about 5 miles in Kingston or 18 miles to New Paltz. The Hudson Valley Mall is about 6 miles away.

18. 2015-03-30
    listed $135,000 550-char remark

    Show marketing remark (550 chars)

    Connelly is a peaceful Hamlet on the South side of the Rondout Creek. Only a couple of minutes to walk to three Marinas. A few minutes drive and you are at the North side of the Rondout, in Downtown Kingston. There you will find great restaurants, shops, and many waterfront activities. This home would be a nice place to grow up, or a pleasant place to enjoy your retirement years. Ideal for commuting to work North or South. New York State Thruway is about 5 miles in Kingston or 18 miles to New Paltz. The Hudson Valley Mall is about 6 miles away.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$4,035
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,582
• − Management: −$2,582
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$1,167
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$280
• After-tax cash flow: $3,465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingston City School District
• NCES district ID: 3616290
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $52,586
• Composite: 44.22/100
• National rank: #2849
• State rank: #355 of 590 in NY

Livability — Port Ewen

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #8190

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port Ewen, NY
• City population: 1,981
• Population (ZIP): 984

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 21% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+99.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-16 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-03-20 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $269,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-01-18 Listed $299,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-01-16 Coming Soon $299,000 HVCRMLS
• 2015-08-21 Sold (MLS) $121,025 HVCRMLS
• 2015-03-30 Listed $135,000 HVCRMLS