229 Cazares Cir · Sonoma, CA 95476

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 83 Days on market

Built 1967 Good condition $116/sqft · 28% below area Est $193k · 28% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable, clean, move-in ready 2 Bd/2 Bath home in the lovely Moon Valley Park! This home features all new carpeting, new paint including doors and cabinets, central A/C, new fixtures, new floor vents & cover plates, and new landscaping. Lots of storage including many closets and outdoor shed. Fully enclosed patio adds extra living space. Also, clear Section 1 Pest Report! The park offers a heated pool, hot tub, laundry facility, clubhouse, etc. Close to Sonoma Plaza, shopping & restaurants.

Key facts

• Lots of storage
• New landscaping
• New carpeting

Tags

• NEW CARPETING
• NEW PAINT
• CENTRAL A/C
• NEW FIXTURES
• NEW LANDSCAPING
• LOTS OF STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 1.4% in Sonoma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#146 in CA, #4,943 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Sonoma Valley Unified (town): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #849 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 263 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,659 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.65%
• DSCR: 3.21
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,028
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -27.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
314 Janero Pl	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,200 (0%)	2mo	$190,000	$158	97
185 Pas Pajaros Calle	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,200 (0%)	10mo	$145,000	$121	88
180 Pas Pajaros Calle	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,200 (0%)	12mo	$215,000	$179	85
160 Chiquita Camino	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-7%)	1mo	$199,000	$178	84
148 Chiquita Camino	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,140 (-5%)	11mo	$140,000	$123	78
213 Cazares Cir #213	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,160 (-3%)	19mo	$120,000	$103	77
270 Manuella Ln	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-13%)	2mo	$160,000	$154	74
312 Janero Pl	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,150 (-4%)	17mo	$115,000	$100	74
171 Chiquita Camino	0.09mi	2/1.5	1,160 (-3%)	18mo	$155,500	$134	74
341 El Castillo Vista Way #341	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-10%)	10mo	$199,000	$184	72
102 Hermosillo Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	20mo	$339,000	$252	53
34 Mazatlan Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+12%)	20mo	$339,000	$252	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $68,806
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.09×
• Total profit: $159,090
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95476

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,254 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$683
• Net cashflow: $1,544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,300

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,640	-5% $1,592	+0% $1,544	+5% $1,496	+10% $1,448
Rent	-10% $1,287	-5% $1,415	+0% $1,544	+5% $1,672	+10% $1,801
Rate	-1.0pp $1,614	-0.5pp $1,579	base $1,544	+0.5pp $1,508	+1.0pp $1,471

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
790 2nd St W Sonoma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	975	$2,660	$2.73	14d	3	0.56mi
208 Todd Ave Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.5	1384	$3,800	$2.75	14d	1	0.59mi
1211 Broadway Unit 1213 Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1200	$3,600	$3.00	24d	1	0.66mi
1207 Broadway Unit 1209 Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1200	$3,750	$3.12	44d	1	0.66mi
1207 Broadway Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1200	$3,600	$3.00	24d	1	0.66mi
663 Spring Ln Sonoma, CA	2.0	1.0	1050	$3,200	$3.05	44d	1	0.68mi
655 W Spain St Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1349	$3,525	$2.61	14d	1	0.68mi
434 Bernice Ln Unit 1546207P Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	979	$4,564	$4.66	14d	1	0.71mi
342 Church St Sonoma, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,600	$3.71	44d	1	0.76mi
340 Church St Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.5	1282	$3,750	$2.93	44d	1	0.77mi
210 Tuscany Pl Sonoma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1200	$2,750	$2.29	14d	1	0.96mi
21 Ramon St Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,250	$1.56	24d	1	1.06mi
19019 5th St W Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.0	1286	$3,400	$2.64	14d	1	1.21mi
336 Las Casitas Ct Sonoma, CA	2.0	1.5	1158	$2,500	$2.16	44d	1	1.27mi
126 Blue Wing Dr Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,975	$2.57	14d	2	1.34mi
126 Blue Wing Dr #11 Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1156	$3,200	$2.77	14d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $139,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $149,000 504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    Adorable, clean, move-in ready 2 Bd/2 Bath home in the lovely Moon Valley Park! This home features all new carpeting, new paint including doors and cabinets, central A/C, new fixtures, new floor vents & cover plates, and new landscaping. Lots of storage including many closets and outdoor shed. Fully enclosed patio adds extra living space. Also, clear Section 1 Pest Report! The park offers a heated pool, hot tub, laundry facility, clubhouse, etc. Close to Sonoma Plaza, shopping & restaurants.

18. 2026-03-27
    listed $156,000 Active 504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    Adorable, clean, move-in ready 2 Bd/2 Bath home in the lovely Moon Valley Park! This home features all new carpeting, new paint including doors and cabinets, central A/C, new fixtures, new floor vents & cover plates, and new landscaping. Lots of storage including many closets and outdoor shed. Fully enclosed patio adds extra living space. Also, clear Section 1 Pest Report! The park offers a heated pool, hot tub, laundry facility, clubhouse, etc. Close to Sonoma Plaza, shopping & restaurants.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,050
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$1,492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,124
• − Management: −$3,124
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $17,394
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,175
• After-tax cash flow: $14,350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home in Moon Valley Park offers a good condition with fresh paint and carpet, and is ready for minor cosmetic upgrades to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and value
• Both Install new windows — Better insulation and increased natural light
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Improved comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and value ↑
• Both Install new windows — Better insulation and increased natural light ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Improved comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonoma Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $63,880
• Composite: 33.88/100
• National rank: #10355
• State rank: #849 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sonoma

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #4943

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sonoma, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 35,196
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,196
• Household income: $105,374
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1116.03%
• Current HPI: 236.6408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $149,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $156,000 BAREIS