12223 125th St E #101 · South Hill, WA 98374

$159,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,729 sqft · Manufactured public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1982 Est $164k · at est. ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

FALL IN LOVE with this impeccably maintained, move-in-ready home in the premier 55+ community of Country Dale. Spanning 1,729 sq ft, this bright and airy residence features a spacious living room with large south-facing double-pane windows that soak the home in natural light. The primary suite is a true retreat, boasting a recently remodeled bathroom with a massive walk-in shower. Car enthusiasts and hobbyists will marvel at the huge 2-car detached garage equipped with power, plus a driveway with room for 4 vehicles. Need more space? The oversized second bedroom was originally two rooms and can easily be converted back to make this a 3-bedroom home. Enjoy peace of mind with a newer roof , f

Key facts

• Rv parking
• Clubhouse
• Remodeled bathroom

Tags

• REMODELED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• DETACHED GARAGE
• RV PARKING
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 3.0% in South Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#84 in WA, #1,620 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living F.
• Puyallup School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #52 of 291 in WA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ridgecrest Elementary (479 students, 43% FRL); Emerald Ridge High School (1,537 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 440 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $149,930 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.96%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,255
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12223 125th St E #101	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,729 (0%)	1mo	$164,000	$95	94
12404 122nd Avenue Ct E #62	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+4%)	18mo	$145,000	$81	78
12301 125th St E #103	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (-10%)	9mo	$164,000	$105	70
12314 124th St E #17	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,507 (-13%)	1mo	$150,000	$100	69
11611 121st Avenue Ct E	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,782 (+3%)	10mo	$460,000	$258	64
12227 123rd St Ct E #45	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-13%)	9mo	$100,000	$67	62
12101 126th Street Ct E #1	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,507 (-13%)	16mo	$52,000	$35	57
11418 127th St E #189	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,542 (-11%)	4mo	$150,000	$97	56
12606 113th Ave E #243	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,715 (-1%)	10mo	$80,000	$47	56
11208 125th St E #78	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,773 (+2%)	15mo	$99,950	$56	54
11323 122nd St E	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (-1%)	18mo	$429,950	$251	51
11303 127th Street Ct E #164	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-10%)	2mo	$144,950	$93	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $39,356
• Equity at exit: $23,782

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $108,889
• Equity at exit: $13,791

Cash invested: $44,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98374

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,730 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$836
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,116/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $1,078

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,366

Max offer price $159,500

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,875
• Closing costs: $4,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12117 122nd Ave E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.5	1549	$2,975	$1.92	1d	1	0.19mi
12123 125th Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	2.0	2.0	1110	$2,100	$1.89	43d	1	0.30mi
13011 122nd Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.5	2176	$3,100	$1.42	43d	1	0.35mi
12437 129th Ave E Puyallup, WA	2.0	1.5	1818	$2,400	$1.32	10d	1	0.40mi
12202 107th Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	4.0	1.5	1248	$3,000	$2.40	43d	1	0.96mi
12202 107th Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	4.0	1.5	1248	$2,850	$2.28	3d	1	0.96mi
10614 123rd Street Ct E Puyallup, WA	3.0	1.5	1584	$2,500	$1.58	43d	1	1.00mi
502 43rd Ave SE Puyallup, WA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,810	$2.55	3d	1	1.10mi
12724 104th Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	910	$2,345	$2.58	5d	8	1.12mi
13404 106th Ave E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,650	$1.89	24d	1	1.14mi
12111 104th Ave E Puyallup, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	902	$1,867	$2.07	5d	1	1.16mi
13523 106th Ave E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,650	$1.89	24d	1	1.22mi
13011 Meridian E Puyallup, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	942	$2,350	$2.49	2d	19	1.23mi
11013 144th Street Ct E Unit O24-6-B Puyallup, WA	3.0	1.5	1400	$2,450	$1.75	43d	1	1.42mi
10511 140th Street Ct E #27 Puyallup, WA	3.0	3.0	1311	$2,650	$2.02	24d	1	1.44mi
10414 140th St Ct E Puyallup, WA	4.0	2.5	1407	$2,595	$1.84	1d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-19
   price $159,500
3. 2026-03-06
   price $169,500
4. 2026-01-29
   listed $179,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,116 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,116 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,765
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,934
• − Property taxes: −$2,116
• − Insurance: −$798
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,621
• − Management: −$2,621
• − Depreciation: −$4,640
• Taxable income: $11,035
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,648
• After-tax cash flow: $10,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Puyallup School District
• NCES district ID: 5306960
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,291
• Composite: 54.01/100
• National rank: #3006
• State rank: #52 of 291 in WA

Livability — South Hill

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #1620

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A- Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Hill, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 76,707
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 49,007
• Household income: $112,662
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1171.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 7% Black 4% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -431.48%
• Current HPI: 286.6617
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $159,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $169,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Listed $179,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,116 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.