12003 Overton · San Antonio, TX 78221

$223,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,635 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 177 Days on market

Built 2022 9,060 sqft lot $136/sqft · 15% below area Est $263k · 15% under $27/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Rent growth +0.7/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Why wait on a new build when this one is already done? This impeccably maintained 2023 Lennar home in Mission Del Lago checks every box and then some. Situated on an oversized lot compared to others in the neighborhood, with a privacy fence already in place, you get more space without the post-construction wait or expense. The open-concept layout features a light-filled family room flowing into a modern kitchen with a central island/breakfast bar, and Energy Star appliances. The private primary suite is tucked at the rear of the home with a generous walk-in closet and full ensuite bath, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for a growing family, guests, or a home office. Solar panels are currently in place under a transferable lease agreement. World-class community amenities include a premier golf course, clubhouse, pool, and sports courts. Minutes from Loop 410 and I-37. Skip the builder timeline. This one is ready now.

Key facts

• Central island
• Walk-in closet
• Privacy fence

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• ENERGY STAR APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FULL ENSUITE BATH
• PRIVACY FENCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $223k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-349 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: W M Pearce Pri (math 20% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,492 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 466 students, 90% FRL); Julius L Matthey Middle (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 604 students, 92% FRL); Southside H S (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,685 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-7.2%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,368 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.71%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,339
• List price: $223,000
• Delta: -15.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12047 Pewee	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,718 (+5%)	4mo	$275,000	$160	74
11742 Pelican Cv	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (0%)	4mo	$249,995	$153	72
12060 Overton	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-11%)	2mo	$225,000	$155	69
751 Vermilion	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,454 (-11%)	8mo	$234,999	$162	61
12507 Course Vw	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,820 (+11%)	7mo	$255,000	$140	60
11814 Plover	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,855 (+14%)	2mo	$249,900	$135	54
11319 Par One	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-5%)	2mo	$295,000	$191	51
714 Pelican Bch	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,714 (+5%)	8mo	$220,000	$128	51
13215 Club House Blvd	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-5%)	10mo	$237,422	$153	47
13210 Club House Blvd	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-5%)	9mo	$240,822	$156	45
13230 Club House Blvd	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,780 (+9%)	7mo	$275,397	$155	39
12206 Course Vw	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,867 (+14%)	3mo	$269,000	$144	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.03% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-11,666
• Equity at exit: $88,300

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,696
• Equity at exit: $127,418

Cash invested: $62,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78221

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Rents YoY: -7.2%
• Active inventory: 389
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,780 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax from tax record: −$465 /mo · $5,585/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$27
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,221

Max offer price $161,368

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-223	-5% $-286	+0% $-349	+5% $-412	+10% $-475
Rent	-10% $-489	-5% $-419	+0% $-349	+5% $-279	+10% $-208
Rate	-1.0pp $-237	-0.5pp $-292	base $-349	+0.5pp $-407	+1.0pp $-465

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,750
• Closing costs: $6,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12015 Still Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1635	$1,600	$0.98	22d	1	0.07mi
742 Haas Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1699	$2,100	$1.24	0d	1	0.08mi
742 Haas Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1699	$2,100	$1.24	19d	1	0.08mi
12030 Picard Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	5d	1	0.09mi
922 Manero Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,850	$0.95	25d	1	0.16mi
718 Albatross Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,650	$1.15	14d	1	0.16mi
12055 Links Pkwy San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,625	$1.10	25d	1	0.17mi
934 Cook Bnd San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,445	$0.89	25d	1	0.17mi
11963 Sand Wedge Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	3.5	1474	$1,575	$1.07	6d	1	0.26mi
1343 Art Wall Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,395	$0.97	45d	1	0.37mi
13206 Dutra Rd San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1956	$1,700	$0.87	45d	1	0.44mi
13222 Dutra Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,595	$1.26	25d	1	0.45mi
710 Titleist Cv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,680	$0.86	45d	1	0.51mi
12910 Clubhouse Blvd San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,364	$1.48	0d	26	0.52mi
907 Stricker Path San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1129	$1,500	$1.33	25d	1	0.53mi
1019 Magrum Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,445	$1.11	12d	1	0.57mi
12911 Lorena Ochoa San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2002	$2,100	$1.05	0d	1	0.61mi
1038 Janzen Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,725	$1.53	23d	1	0.61mi
1115 Janzen Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	45d	1	0.62mi
1019 Snedeker Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,449	$1.21	25d	1	0.64mi
11426 Four Iron Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1814	$1,695	$0.93	6d	1	0.66mi
2203 Cielo Rio, Lot 102 San Antonio, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1574	$2,845	$1.81	0d	150	0.77mi
13806 S Strange Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,795	$1.08	25d	1	0.81mi
1119 Jordan Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,795	$1.41	45d	1	0.81mi
1003 Beck Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1213	$1,490	$1.23	6d	1	1.08mi
1030 Snedeker DR San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,499	$1.00	25d	1	1.08mi
1015 Catalonia Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,600	$1.25	6d	1	1.34mi
1011 Catalonia Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1470	$1,700	$1.16	25d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $27 · $324/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $223,000 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $223,000 Active 174 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $223,000 Active 173 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $223,000 Active 172 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $223,000 Active 171 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $223,000 Active 169 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $223,000 Active 168 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $223,000 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $223,000 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $223,000 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $223,000 Active 160 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $223,000 Active 159 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $223,000 Active 158 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $223,000 Active 157 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $223,000 Active 156 DOM
16. 2026-03-26
    price $223,000 948-char remark

    Show marketing remark (948 chars)

    Why wait on a new build when this one is already done? This impeccably maintained 2023 Lennar home in Mission Del Lago checks every box and then some. Situated on an oversized lot compared to others in the neighborhood, with a privacy fence already in place, you get more space without the post-construction wait or expense. The open-concept layout features a light-filled family room flowing into a modern kitchen with a central island/breakfast bar, and Energy Star appliances. The private primary suite is tucked at the rear of the home with a generous walk-in closet and full ensuite bath, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for a growing family, guests, or a home office. Solar panels are currently in place under a transferable lease agreement. World-class community amenities include a premier golf course, clubhouse, pool, and sports courts. Minutes from Loop 410 and I-37. Skip the builder timeline. This one is ready now.

17. 2026-01-22
    price $227,000 948-char remark

    Show marketing remark (948 chars)

    Why wait on a new build when this one is already done? This impeccably maintained 2023 Lennar home in Mission Del Lago checks every box and then some. Situated on an oversized lot compared to others in the neighborhood, with a privacy fence already in place, you get more space without the post-construction wait or expense. The open-concept layout features a light-filled family room flowing into a modern kitchen with a central island/breakfast bar, and Energy Star appliances. The private primary suite is tucked at the rear of the home with a generous walk-in closet and full ensuite bath, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for a growing family, guests, or a home office. Solar panels are currently in place under a transferable lease agreement. World-class community amenities include a premier golf course, clubhouse, pool, and sports courts. Minutes from Loop 410 and I-37. Skip the builder timeline. This one is ready now.

18. 2025-12-26
    listed $239,000 New 948-char remark

    Show marketing remark (948 chars)

    Why wait on a new build when this one is already done? This impeccably maintained 2023 Lennar home in Mission Del Lago checks every box and then some. Situated on an oversized lot compared to others in the neighborhood, with a privacy fence already in place, you get more space without the post-construction wait or expense. The open-concept layout features a light-filled family room flowing into a modern kitchen with a central island/breakfast bar, and Energy Star appliances. The private primary suite is tucked at the rear of the home with a generous walk-in closet and full ensuite bath, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for a growing family, guests, or a home office. Solar panels are currently in place under a transferable lease agreement. World-class community amenities include a premier golf course, clubhouse, pool, and sports courts. Minutes from Loop 410 and I-37. Skip the builder timeline. This one is ready now.

19. 2025-12-03
    historical
20. 2025-10-27
    listed $239,000 New
21. 2023-03-30
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2023-02-26
    status Pending
23. 2023-01-27
    price $269,849
24. 2023-01-27
    price $271,099
25. 2023-01-26
    listed $222,349 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,585 · $465/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,585 · $465/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,491
• − Property taxes: −$5,585
• − Insurance: −$1,115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,708
• − Management: −$1,708
• − HOA: −$324
• − Depreciation: −$6,487
• Taxable loss: −$8,064
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,935
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southside ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,526
• Composite: 17.68/100
• National rank: #9027
• State rank: #771 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,178
• Household income: $63,811
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1180.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 28% White 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 74%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 54%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.03%
• Current HPI: 251.1635
• Rent YoY: ▼ -7.21%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $223,000 LERA
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $227,000 LERA
• 2025-12-26 Listed $239,000 LERA
• 2025-12-03 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-10-27 Listed $239,000 LERA
• 2023-03-30 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2023-02-26 Pending — LERA
• 2023-01-27 Price Changed $271,099 LERA
• 2023-01-27 Price Changed $269,849 LERA
• 2023-01-26 Listed $222,349 LERA

Property tax history

+82.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,585 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.