727 N 33rd St · Louisville, KY 40212

$145,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,019 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 1913 Est $122k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

?? Investor Special & acirc; & euro; & ldquo; Fully Updated Systems, Cosmetic Finish Left! ???? Don & acirc; & euro; & trade; t miss this incredible opportunity in Portland, Louisville, KY! This 4 bedroom, 2 full bath, 1 half bath home already has all the heavy lifting DONE & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; making it a perfect low-risk investment. ? Major Updates Completed:

Key facts

• Updated systems
• Built 1913
• Listed 23 days

Tags

• UPDATED SYSTEMS
• MAJOR UPDATES COMPLETED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1913; Single-family property
• Construction: Construction date: 1913
• Exterior features: Located in the Portland subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 140 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,537 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.89%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,280
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3801 Miami Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (+10%)	10mo	$134,900	$120	37
3912 Bank St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,060 (+4%)	15mo	$110,000	$104	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $86,227
• Equity at exit: $130,627

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.90×
• Total profit: $239,643
• Equity at exit: $281,703

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40212

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,315 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $636/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,106

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2906 Montgomery St Unit B Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,060	$0.92	23d	1	0.37mi
652 N 29th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1127	$1,350	$1.20	16d	1	0.39mi
522 N 29th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1031	$1,300	$1.26	3d	1	0.43mi
2506 Montgomery St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1081	$1,295	$1.20	3d	4	0.69mi
320 N 36th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	830	$1,225	$1.48	15d	1	0.80mi
3901 Jewell Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1069	$1,140	$1.07	20d	1	0.86mi
2927 Rowan St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,205	$1.20	11d	1	0.89mi
2433 Slevin St Unit 2433-2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	800	$875	$1.09	3d	1	0.97mi
127 N 40th St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,570	$1.05	3d	1	1.04mi
313 N 42nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	3d	1	1.04mi
807 E Main St New Albany, IN	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	19d	1	1.05mi
106 N 40th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1325	$1,220	$0.92	3d	1	1.09mi
212 N 25th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$895	$0.81	23d	1	1.09mi
214 N 24th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1012	$915	$0.90	23d	1	1.13mi
2529 W Main St #2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,200	$0.85	23d	1	1.13mi
2508 W Main St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1327	$1,500	$1.13	23d	1	1.19mi
901 E Oak St New Albany, IN	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	23d	1	1.31mi
1919 Baird St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,100	$0.73	15d	1	1.32mi
409 N 20th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,050	$0.88	3d	1	1.33mi
2623 Cedar St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	23d	1	1.36mi
247 Cecil Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1083	$1,305	$1.20	19d	1	1.39mi
112 S 46th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	902	$1,200	$1.33	23d	1	1.39mi
520 Culbertson Ave Unit B New Albany, IN	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	3d	1	1.43mi
120 N 20th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,400	$1.08	23d	1	1.45mi
430 S 24th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1288	$1,400	$1.09	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $145,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $155,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $636 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,247 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$611/yr (+$51/mo · 96.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$636
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,263
• − Management: −$1,263
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$442
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$106
• After-tax cash flow: $2,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 14,661
• Household income: $35,753
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1148.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 37% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 293.2624
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.51%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $155,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $636 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.