16545 W Carmen Dr · Surprise, AZ 85388

$385,200

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,257 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 2003 6,345 sqft lot $171/sqft · 12% below area Est $439k · 12% under $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 story home with a two living rooms and a dining area. Kitchen has white cabinets butcher block countertops, appliances and tile flooring. Upstairs there is a primary bedroom with bath dual sinks separate tub and shower and large walk in closet, 2 bedrooms and a full bath. This home backyard with pebble tek pool and water fall.

Key facts

• White cabinets
• Dining area
• Tile flooring

Tags

• TWO LIVING ROOMS
• DINING AREA
• WHITE CABINETS
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• TILE FLOORING
• PRIMARY BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-450 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (36.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (36.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cimarron Springs Middle School (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D+, #40 of 218 statewide, top 19%, 589 students, 35% FRL); Willow Canyon High School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,787 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $43k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,479 (36.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.00%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $439,286
• List price: $385,200
• Delta: -12.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15881 N 165th Ln	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,232 (-1%)	2mo	$427,000	$191	74
16533 W Carmen Dr	0.02mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,534 (+12%)	2mo	$557,000	$220	68
16852 W Central St	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,220 (-2%)	3mo	$420,000	$189	63
15961 W Marconi Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	2,174 (-4%)	2mo	$493,500	$227	59
16639 W Saguaro Ln	0.18mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,548 (+13%)	3mo	$470,000	$184	59
16220 N 162nd Ln	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,166 (-4%)	3mo	$415,000	$192	58
16864 W Tasha Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5	2,255 (-0%)	2mo	$370,000	$164	58
15917 W Port AU Prince Ln	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,382 (+6%)	0mo	$425,000	$178	52
16912 W Saguaro Ln	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,567 (+14%)	1mo	$502,525	$196	40
15933 W Statler St W	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,949 (-14%)	0mo	$433,000	$222	38
15326 N 158th Ln	0.64mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,554 (+13%)	4mo	$458,000	$179	34
15836 W Acapulco Ln	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,595 (+15%)	2mo	$380,000	$146	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.28% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-42,033
• Equity at exit: $117,357

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-45,268
• Equity at exit: $145,542

Cash invested: $107,856 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85388

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 389
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,445 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,020
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,567/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-450

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,014

Max offer price $305,760

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-232	-5% $-341	+0% $-450	+5% $-559	+10% $-668
Rent	-10% $-643	-5% $-546	+0% $-450	+5% $-353	+10% $-257
Rate	-1.0pp $-256	-0.5pp $-352	base $-450	+0.5pp $-550	+1.0pp $-651

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,300
• Closing costs: $11,556
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16523 W Saguaro Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,175	$1.34	3d	1	0.03mi
16663 W Rimrock St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2192	$2,195	$1.00	0d	1	0.33mi
16121 N 168th Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2567	$2,695	$1.05	26d	1	0.51mi
16818 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2567	$1,895	$0.74	17d	1	0.53mi
15943 W Central St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,895	$1.20	7d	1	0.55mi
16612 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,749	$1.09	20d	1	0.59mi
16612 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,749	$1.09	0d	1	0.59mi
16189 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1602	$2,069	$1.29	3d	1	0.59mi
16559 W Post Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,789	$1.12	23d	1	0.60mi
16037 W Custer Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2050	$2,045	$1.00	45d	1	0.60mi
16903 W Marconi Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2426	$2,295	$0.95	45d	1	0.62mi
16184 N 159th Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2214	$2,700	$1.22	45d	1	0.72mi
15941 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2958	$4,000	$1.35	45d	1	0.72mi
15797 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1988	$1,791	$0.90	14d	1	0.74mi
15911 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1734	$1,880	$1.08	45d	1	0.78mi
15528 N 156th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1668	$1,849	$1.11	6d	1	0.80mi
15927 N 171st Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1670	$3,200	$1.92	45d	1	0.85mi
16182 N 157th Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2426	$2,500	$1.03	45d	1	0.87mi
15840 W Evans Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,250	$1.28	45d	1	0.94mi
17127 W Statler St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2543	$2,600	$1.02	26d	1	0.94mi
17229 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2291	$2,245	$0.98	6d	1	1.01mi
16003 N Cristine Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2379	$2,200	$0.92	45d	1	1.02mi
17236 W Country Gables Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2291	$2,795	$1.22	45d	1	1.05mi
15560 W Acapulco Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1756	$1,899	$1.08	6d	1	1.05mi
17272 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2004	$2,085	$1.04	45d	1	1.07mi
14945 N 172nd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1699	$2,099	$1.24	7d	1	1.08mi
17315 W Tara Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2379	$2,500	$1.05	13d	1	1.13mi
15746 W Elm St Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	2588	$1,798	$0.69	45d	1	1.13mi
16223 W Boca Raton Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1647	$2,200	$1.34	45d	1	1.13mi
16444 N 172nd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2285	$2,795	$1.22	13d	1	1.15mi
17331 W Saguaro Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2403	$2,295	$0.96	45d	1	1.17mi
17460 N Estrella Vista Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1627	$3,200	$1.97	45d	1	1.19mi
15473 W Tasha Cir Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2090	$4,500	$2.15	45d	1	1.21mi
17440 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2159	$2,300	$1.07	4d	1	1.23mi
15512 N 174th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2147	$3,000	$1.40	45d	1	1.25mi
15749 W Ventura St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2071	$2,199	$1.06	22d	1	1.25mi
15847 W Bridgewood Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2200	$3,850	$1.75	45d	1	1.25mi
17395 W Langer Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	1902	$1,995	$1.05	26d	1	1.27mi
15755 W Redfield Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1723	$3,750	$2.18	45d	1	1.27mi
15164 N 173rd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2048	$2,495	$1.22	25d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-15
   price $385,200 332-char remark

   Show marketing remark (332 chars)

   2 story home with a two living rooms and a dining area. Kitchen has white cabinets butcher block countertops, appliances and tile flooring. Upstairs there is a primary bedroom with bath dual sinks separate tub and shower and large walk in closet, 2 bedrooms and a full bath. This home backyard with pebble tek pool and water fall.

2. 2026-03-31
   listed $428,000 Active 332-char remark

   Show marketing remark (332 chars)

   2 story home with a two living rooms and a dining area. Kitchen has white cabinets butcher block countertops, appliances and tile flooring. Upstairs there is a primary bedroom with bath dual sinks separate tub and shower and large walk in closet, 2 bedrooms and a full bath. This home backyard with pebble tek pool and water fall.

3. 2023-04-28
   soldstatus $441,000 Closed 381-char remark

   Show marketing remark (381 chars)

   Great Location!! Close to Loop 303, Costco, golf course, dining and shopping. Beautiful two stories house very well maintained with 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom. Great Kitchen with upgraded Granite countertops. Fully landscaped backyard is great for entertaining with pebble-tech pool. Loft and 3 bedrooms upstairs, inlcuding master bedroom. Don't miss this great home at a great price!

4. 2023-04-28
   soldstatus $441,000

   Show marketing remark (381 chars)

   Great Location!! Close to Loop 303, Costco, golf course, dining and shopping. Beautiful two stories house very well maintained with 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom. Great Kitchen with upgraded Granite countertops. Fully landscaped backyard is great for entertaining with pebble-tech pool. Loft and 3 bedrooms upstairs, inlcuding master bedroom. Don't miss this great home at a great price!

5. 2023-01-23
   status Pending 381-char remark

   Show marketing remark (381 chars)

   Great Location!! Close to Loop 303, Costco, golf course, dining and shopping. Beautiful two stories house very well maintained with 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom. Great Kitchen with upgraded Granite countertops. Fully landscaped backyard is great for entertaining with pebble-tech pool. Loft and 3 bedrooms upstairs, inlcuding master bedroom. Don't miss this great home at a great price!

6. 2023-01-16
   price $441,000 381-char remark

   Show marketing remark (381 chars)

   Great Location!! Close to Loop 303, Costco, golf course, dining and shopping. Beautiful two stories house very well maintained with 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom. Great Kitchen with upgraded Granite countertops. Fully landscaped backyard is great for entertaining with pebble-tech pool. Loft and 3 bedrooms upstairs, inlcuding master bedroom. Don't miss this great home at a great price!

7. 2022-12-01
   listed $445,000 Active 381-char remark

   Show marketing remark (381 chars)

   Great Location!! Close to Loop 303, Costco, golf course, dining and shopping. Beautiful two stories house very well maintained with 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom. Great Kitchen with upgraded Granite countertops. Fully landscaped backyard is great for entertaining with pebble-tech pool. Loft and 3 bedrooms upstairs, inlcuding master bedroom. Don't miss this great home at a great price!

8. 2011-12-05
   soldstatus $145,000 Closed
9. 2011-11-16
   status Pending
10. 2011-09-28
    listed $160,160 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,567 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,542 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$976/yr (+$81/mo · 62.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,577
• − Property taxes: −$1,567
• − Insurance: −$1,926
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,347
• − Management: −$2,347
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$11,206
• Taxable loss: −$12,472
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,993
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,369
• Household income: $112,164
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 224.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Current HPI: 272.9859
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+140.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $385,200 ARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $428,000 ARMLS
• 2023-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $441,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-28 Sold (MLS) $441,000 ARMLS
• 2023-01-23 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-01-16 Price Changed $441,000 ARMLS
• 2022-12-01 Listed $445,000 ARMLS
• 2011-12-05 Sold (MLS) $145,000 ARMLS
• 2011-11-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2011-09-28 Listed $160,160 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,567 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.