Juniper Plan · Red Oak, TX 75154

$379,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,170 sqft · SingleFamily · 282 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A thoughtful layout and stylish details make the Juniper an ideal choice for those who want space to spread out without sacrificing comfort. At the center of the home, the large island kitchen flows into the family room and dining area, creating a light-filled open space perfect for daily life and weekend gatherings. The primary suite includes a luxurious closet and well-appointed bath, while three additional secondary bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or hobbies. A convenient and versatile flex space offers a private retreat, study or additional bedroom. This one-story plan with 4 large bedrooms and the option to add a fifth, highlights smart use of space and versatility. Intelligent design and elegant features make this plan a favorite for modern living.

Key facts

• Well-appointed bath
• Flex space
• Primary suite

Tags

• LARGE ISLAND KITCHEN
• FLEX SPACE
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WELL-APPOINTED BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $379,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $390,495.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $380k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $376k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $329k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $329k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.1% in Red Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#435 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Red Oak ISD (suburban): math 40% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #384 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shields El (math 34% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,965 of 4,322 statewide, top 46%, 563 students, 60% FRL); Red Oak Middle (math 38% / reading 32%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 1,546 students, 63% FRL); Red Oak H S (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D+, #495 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 2,160 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 42% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 708 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $328,741 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $390,495
• List price: $379,990
• Delta: -2.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1226 Stockton Trl	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,217 (+2%)	3mo	$379,990	$171	88
1250 Stockton Trl	0.07mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,206 (+2%)	2mo	$399,890	$181	87
1344 Beaumont Ln	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,105 (-3%)	3mo	$414,990	$197	87
1302 Beaumont Ln	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,105 (-3%)	3mo	$419,990	$200	86
817 Alderwood Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,211 (+2%)	6mo	$389,990	$176	77
837 Alderwood Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,105 (-3%)	3mo	$419,990	$200	77
1232 Wrenwood Ln	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,102 (-3%)	2mo	$454,000	$216	74
1300 Stockton Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,016 (-7%)	3mo	$369,990	$184	73
1111 Sedona Ln	0.30mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,206 (+2%)	7mo	$394,990	$179	72
1317 Rothland Ln	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,914 (-12%)	3mo	$389,990	$204	69
1215 Stockton Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,016 (-7%)	5mo	$359,990	$179	68
1309 Stockton Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,848 (-15%)	4mo	$359,990	$195	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-69,729
• Equity at exit: $58,224

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-68,983
• Equity at exit: $33,763

Cash invested: $109,339 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 32 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.1 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $422,490 ($185/sqft)
• Median days on market: 348 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75154

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 708
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,287 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$488 /mo · $5,857/yr
• Insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$690
• Net cashflow: $-102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,416

Max offer price $375,798

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $33	+0% $-102	+5% $-236	+10% $-371
Rent	-10% $-361	-5% $-231	+0% $-102	+5% $28	+10% $158
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $-2	base $-102	+0.5pp $-203	+1.0pp $-306

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,624
• Closing costs: $11,715
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1227 Stockton Trl Red Oak, TX	4.0	3.0	2752	$3,400	$1.24	93d	1	0.11mi
124 Clear Creek Dr Red Oak, TX	5.0	3.5	2964	$2,845	$0.96	73d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $379,990 Active 282 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $379,990 Active 280 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $379,990 Active 279 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $379,990 Active 278 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $379,990 Active 277 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $379,990 Active 274 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $379,990 Active 272 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $379,990 Active 271 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $379,990 Active 269 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $379,990 Active 267 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $379,990 Active 266 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $379,990 Active 265 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $379,990 Active 264 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $379,990 Active 263 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $379,990 Active 261 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $379,990 Active 260 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $379,990 Active 259 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $379,990 Active 258 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $379,990 Active 257 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $379,990 Active 256 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $379,990 Active 255 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $379,990 Active 254 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $379,990 Active 253 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $379,990 Active 252 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $379,990 Active 250 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $379,990 Active 249 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $379,990 Active 248 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $379,990 Active 247 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $379,990 Active 246 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $379,990 Active 245 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $379,990 Active 244 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $379,990 Active 243 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $379,990 Active 242 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $379,990 Active 241 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $379,990 Active 240 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $379,990 Active 239 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $379,990 Active 237 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $379,990 Active 235 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $379,990 Active 234 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $379,990 Active 231 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $379,990 Active 230 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $379,990 Active 229 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $379,990 Active 228 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $379,990 Active 226 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $379,990 Active 225 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $379,990 Active 222 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $379,990 Active 221 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $379,990 Active 220 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $379,990 Active 217 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,990 Active 216 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,449
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,874
• − Property taxes: −$5,857
• − Insurance: −$1,952
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,156
• − Management: −$3,156
• − Depreciation: −$11,360
• Taxable loss: −$7,906
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,898
• After-tax cash flow: $679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great layout and stylish details, making it an ideal choice for those seeking a move-in-ready property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Shields El F TX #1,965/4,322 Nat'l #22,904/41,679 Middle Red Oak Middle F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Red Oak H S D+ TX #495/1,632 Nat'l #5,448/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Oak ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836660
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $71,110
• Composite: 34.88/100
• National rank: #5084
• State rank: #384 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Red Oak

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #8931

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Red Oak, TX
• County: Ellis County · 194,556 people
• City population: 52,516
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,516
• Household income: $100,388
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 12% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.06%
• Current HPI: 294.5836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.99%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $379,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Listed $374,990 Zillow