54 Cliff Cir · Aquia Harbour, VA 22556

$149,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 1989 1,900 sqft lot ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2 full-bath home located at 54 Cliff Cir, Stafford, VA 22556. This property offers a bright and spacious layout with fresh neutral paint, updated flooring, recessed lighting, and comfortable living areas throughout. The kitchen features white cabinetry, modern countertops, stainless steel appliances, and plenty of cabinet space. Both full bathrooms have been tastefully updated with modern tile finishes and updated fixtures. Enjoy a large exterior lot with a front deck, spacious yard, storage shed, and driveway parking. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, commuter routes, and local amenities. A great opportunity for buyers looking for space, co

Key facts

• Updated flooring
• Recessed lighting
• Modern countertops

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORING
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• WHITE CABINETRY
• MODERN COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• UPDATED FIXTURES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with case-by-case restrictions and limits; Additional parcels recorded
• Financial info: Ground rent $880 monthly; City/town tax recorded ($300)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Community water; Community septic tank; Electric power
• Home design: Manufactured property; Estimated effective year of major renovation: 2024; Estimated year built; In city limits; Ground rent ownership (monthly payment)
• Construction: Mixed construction materials
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Above-grade other structures present; Additional parcel(s) included; Located in Foxwood park

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard electric heating; Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Estimated living area; No basement; Two or more access exits; Property manager on site

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 3.5% in Aquia Harbour — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#254 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Stafford County Public School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #42 of 131 in VA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 361 units permitted in Stafford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stafford County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.66%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $487,200
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 Cliff Cir	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (-13%)	6mo	$107,900	$89	60
110 Doc Stone Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-4%)	0mo	$468,000	$348	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $57,414
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.70×
• Total profit: $155,326
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22556

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,934 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$616
• Net cashflow: $1,282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,386	-5% $1,334	+0% $1,282	+5% $1,230	+10% $1,179
Rent	-10% $1,050	-5% $1,166	+0% $1,282	+5% $1,398	+10% $1,514
Rate	-1.0pp $1,358	-0.5pp $1,320	base $1,282	+0.5pp $1,243	+1.0pp $1,204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
344 Woodstream Blvd Stafford, VA	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,850	$1.57	25d	1	0.16mi
201 Shamrock Dr Unit 3120 Stafford, VA	3.0	2.5	1842	$2,650	$1.44	18d	1	0.18mi
104 Tradewinds Ter Stafford, VA	3.0	2.5	1520	$2,600	$1.71	25d	1	0.50mi
37 Bristol Ct Stafford, VA	3.0	1.5	1320	$2,500	$1.89	4d	1	0.64mi
707 Kings Crest Dr Stafford, VA	3.0	3.5	1830	$2,400	$1.31	19d	1	0.89mi
703 Kings Crest Dr Stafford, VA	3.0	2.5	1280	$2,100	$1.64	44d	1	0.90mi
105 Brenwick Ct Stafford, VA	4.0	3.5	1675	$2,600	$1.55	44d	1	0.93mi
107 Stafford Mews Ln Stafford, VA	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,500	$1.89	2d	1	1.32mi
302 Ridgecrest Ct Stafford, VA	3.0	2.5	1620	$2,350	$1.45	3d	1	1.36mi
316 Surry Ln #132 Stafford, VA	3.0	1.5	1764	$2,400	$1.36	44d	1	1.41mi
1115 Aquia Dr Stafford, VA	3.0	3.5	1600	$3,200	$2.00	5d	1	1.44mi
1115 Aquia Dr Stafford, VA	3.0	3.5	1600	$2,950	$1.84	2d	1	1.44mi
2030 Dewey Dr Stafford, VA	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,750	$2.12	45d	1	1.50mi
15 Town Square Cir Stafford, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1064	$2,446	$2.30	13d	9	1.50mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,817
• − Management: −$2,817
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $13,822
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,317
• After-tax cash flow: $12,068/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stafford County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103660
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $96,389
• Composite: 54.61/100
• National rank: #1336
• State rank: #42 of 131 in VA

Livability — Aquia Harbour

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #8617

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Stafford County · 161,536 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 31,785
• Household income: $137,287
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 332.0

Population outlook (Stafford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,882 people
• By 2030: 183,934 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 211,031 · +24.2%
• By 2050: 235,391 · +38.6%
• By 2075: 297,080 · +74.9%
• By 2100: 334,680 · +97.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 15% Two or more races 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stafford

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 48.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+3.3 2016: R+9.1 2012: R+8.8 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.72%
• Current HPI: 284.4747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $155,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-21 Listed $160,000 BRIGHT MLS