3109 Summerhill Pl · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$40,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 470 sqft · Condo public records · 237 Days on market

Built 1986 $85/sqft · 23% below area Est $52k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently remodeled 1BR/1BA condo in Fairfield Bay’s Summerhill Place. Approx. 470 SF with an open living/kitchen layout. Move-in ready and perfect as an investment, vacation getaway, or short-term rental. Enjoy Fairfield Bay’s resort amenities including golf, tennis, pools, trails, marina, and more.

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Tennis
• Golf

Tags

• REMODELED
• OPEN LIVING KITCHEN LAYOUT
• RESORT AMENITIES
• GOLF
• TENNIS
• POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $561 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.1% vs local median 5.3% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $86 of equity ($277 loan paydown + $-191 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.11%
• DSCR: 3.67
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $51,973
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -23.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $33,868
• Equity at exit: $10,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.19×
• Total profit: $80,552
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,413 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $156/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$316
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $703

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-01-14
   price $40,000 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Recently remodeled 1BR/1BA condo in Fairfield Bay’s Summerhill Place. Approx. 470 SF with an open living/kitchen layout. Move-in ready and perfect as an investment, vacation getaway, or short-term rental. Enjoy Fairfield Bay’s resort amenities including golf, tennis, pools, trails, marina, and more.

2. 2025-10-30
   price $49,900 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Recently remodeled 1BR/1BA condo in Fairfield Bay’s Summerhill Place. Approx. 470 SF with an open living/kitchen layout. Move-in ready and perfect as an investment, vacation getaway, or short-term rental. Enjoy Fairfield Bay’s resort amenities including golf, tennis, pools, trails, marina, and more.

3. 2025-09-26
   listed $55,000 Active 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Recently remodeled 1BR/1BA condo in Fairfield Bay’s Summerhill Place. Approx. 470 SF with an open living/kitchen layout. Move-in ready and perfect as an investment, vacation getaway, or short-term rental. Enjoy Fairfield Bay’s resort amenities including golf, tennis, pools, trails, marina, and more.

4. 2025-03-14
   historical
5. 2024-09-13
   listed $54,900 New Listing
6. 2004-12-29
   soldstatus $41,000
7. 2003-10-06
   soldstatus $70,000
8. 2000-08-15
   soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $156 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $256 · $21/mo
• Expected delta: +$100/yr (+$8/mo · 63.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$156
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,357
• − Management: −$1,357
• − HOA: −$3,792
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $6,693
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,606
• After-tax cash flow: $5,126/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+185.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $40,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $49,900 NWARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $55,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-03-14 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2024-09-13 Listed $54,900 CARMLS
• 2004-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2000-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $156 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.