11 Sterling Ave · Wilkes-Barre, PA 18702

$129,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,933 sqft · SingleFamily · 46 Days on market

Built 1938 435 sqft lot Est $251k · 49% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 5-bedroom home in a great Luzerne County location! This property offers plenty of potential with its generous layout and convenient setting. Perfect opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add personal touches--just needs a little TLC to make it shine. Situated on a compact, easy-to-maintain lot and close to local amenities.

Key facts

• Built 1938
• Listed 46 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $717 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 5.7% in Wilkes-Barre — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wilkes-Barre Area SD (urban): math 19% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #469 of 539 in PA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr David W Kistler El Sch (math 11% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,248 of 1,518 statewide, top 83%, 916 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 61% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 225 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 349 units permitted in Luzerne County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Luzerne County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.80%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,290
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
333 Horton St	0.22mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,911 (-1%)	0mo	$225,000	$118	81
30 Oak St	0.27mi	5/1.0	1,768 (-8%)	1mo	$245,000	$139	72
825 S Franklin St	0.34mi	5/2.0	2,064 (+7%)	2mo	$149,000	$72	67
60 Corlear St	0.19mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,760 (-9%)	2mo	$230,000	$131	64
84 Marlborough Ave	0.43mi	5/2.5	1,853 (-4%)	5mo	$240,000	$130	63
55 Oregon St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,026 (+5%)	3mo	$150,000	$74	61
124 New Alexander St	0.42mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,796 (-7%)	2mo	$240,000	$134	60
876 Main St	0.49mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,835 (-5%)	8mo	$227,500	$124	53
80 Simpson St	0.47mi	5/1.5	1,691 (-12%)	6mo	$245,000	$145	50
133 Parrish St	0.74mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,908 (-1%)	5mo	$279,000	$146	48
48 W Division St	0.47mi	5/3.5	2,144 (+11%)	2mo	$279,000	$130	48
495 Franklin St	0.68mi	5/3.0	2,200 (+14%)	10mo	$190,000	$86	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $32,929
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $123,838
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18702

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,035 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $717

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $806	-5% $761	+0% $717	+5% $672	+10% $627
Rent	-10% $556	-5% $636	+0% $717	+5% $797	+10% $877
Rate	-1.0pp $781	-0.5pp $749	base $717	+0.5pp $683	+1.0pp $649

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
381 S River St Wilkes-Barre, PA	6.0	2.0	1908	$2,400	$1.26	45d	1	0.81mi
249 Parrish St Wilkes Barre, PA	5.0	2.0	2214	$2,000	$0.90	15d	1	0.94mi
279 Hazle St Wilkes Barre, PA	5.0	1.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	15d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-12-08
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-17
   price $129,000
3. 2025-10-27
   price $134,000
4. 2025-10-23
   listed $139,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,954
• − Management: −$1,954
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $6,959
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,670
• After-tax cash flow: $6,928/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilkes-Barre Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4226300
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $37,420
• Composite: 21.22/100
• National rank: #8409
• State rank: #469 of 539 in PA

Livability — Wilkes-Barre

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilkes-Barre, PA
• County: Luzerne County · 118,885 people
• City population: 73,981
• Metro: Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA
• Population (ZIP): 41,970
• Household income: $56,378
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1632.0

Population outlook (Luzerne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,505 people
• By 2030: 319,943 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 322,643 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 330,817 · +3.5%
• By 2075: 379,145 · +18.7%
• By 2100: 431,908 · +35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Luzerne

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 40.0% · R 59.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+19.6 2012: D+4.8 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -156.99%
• Current HPI: 216.9373
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.84%
• Metro: Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-7.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-08 Pending — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $129,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $134,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-10-23 Listed $139,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID