24 Birchwood Ln · North Ballston Spa, NY 12020

$319,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,147 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1969 0.34 ac lot Est $312k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ranch home in Ballston Spa School district with 4 bedrooms. Large back yard perfect for entertaining. Make your appointment today!

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• New walkway
• Vinyl railings

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETS
• REFINISHED WOOD FLOORS
• NEW WALKWAY
• COMPOSITE FRONT ENTRY STAIRS
• VINYL RAILINGS
• SPACIOUS LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-422/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#370 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Ballston Spa Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #289 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Malta Avenue Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 342 students, 29% FRL); Ballston Spa Middle School (math 40% / reading 59%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 945 students, 32% FRL); Ballston Spa Senior High School (math 92% / reading 64%, grade A-, #568 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 1,249 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.3%/yr); 225 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $245k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $268,439 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.47%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $311,984
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24 Birchwood Ln	0.00mi	4/1.0	1,147 (0%)	1mo	$304,500	$265	100
211 Northline Rd	0.25mi	4/1.0	1,176 (+2%)	18mo	$215,000	$183	69
40 Lee St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,240 (+8%)	2mo	$435,000	$351	49
706 Arnold St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (-8%)	22mo	$303,000	$289	37
404 Milton Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,212 (+6%)	23mo	$330,000	$272	37
26 Center St	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,292 (+13%)	9mo	$299,900	$232	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-39,735
• Equity at exit: $47,564

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $27,125
• Equity at exit: $27,581

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12020

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.3%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,684 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$350 /mo · $4,201/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,729

Max offer price $312,785

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $145	-5% $55	+0% $-35	+5% $-125	+10% $-216
Rent	-10% $-247	-5% $-141	+0% $-35	+5% $71	+10% $177
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $46	base $-35	+0.5pp $-118	+1.0pp $-202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   price $319,000
3. 2026-02-19
   listed $329,000 Active
4. 2026-01-14
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-12
   historical
6. 2026-01-08
   listed $319,000 Active
7. 2023-10-18
   soldstatus $245,000
8. 2023-08-04
   soldstatus $245,000 Closed 130-char remark

   Show marketing remark (130 chars)

   Ranch home in Ballston Spa School district with 4 bedrooms. Large back yard perfect for entertaining. Make your appointment today!

9. 2023-05-19
   status Pending 130-char remark

   Show marketing remark (130 chars)

   Ranch home in Ballston Spa School district with 4 bedrooms. Large back yard perfect for entertaining. Make your appointment today!

10. 2023-05-08
    listed $235,900 Active 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    Ranch home in Ballston Spa School district with 4 bedrooms. Large back yard perfect for entertaining. Make your appointment today!

11. 2023-02-01
    historical
12. 2023-01-09
    status Pending
13. 2023-01-03
    status Active
14. 2023-01-03
    historical
15. 2022-12-21
    status Active
16. 2022-12-05
    historical
17. 2022-09-27
    price $224,900
18. 2022-09-03
    historical
19. 2022-09-02
    listed $232,900 Active
20. 2022-07-25
    listed $239,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,201 · $350/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,796 · $400/mo
• Expected delta: +$595/yr (+$50/mo · 14.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$4,201
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,577
• − Management: −$2,577
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$5,886
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,413
• After-tax cash flow: $990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ballston Spa Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603930
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,705
• Composite: 48.12/100
• National rank: #2184
• State rank: #289 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Ballston Spa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #370
• US rank: #6403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Ballston Spa, NY
• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,937
• Household income: $107,112
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 607.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.23%
• Current HPI: 346.5996
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.26%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+33.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $319,000 Global MLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $329,000 Global MLS
• 2026-01-14 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-01-12 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $319,000 Global MLS
• 2023-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-04 Sold (MLS) $245,000 Global MLS
• 2023-05-19 Pending — Global MLS
• 2023-05-08 Listed $235,900 Global MLS
• 2023-02-01 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2023-01-09 Pending — Global MLS
• 2023-01-03 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2023-01-03 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2022-12-21 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2022-12-05 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2022-09-27 Price Changed $224,900 Global MLS
• 2022-09-03 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2022-09-02 Listed $232,900 Global MLS
• 2022-07-25 Listed $239,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,201 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.