715 Deerfern Dr · Wylie, TX 75407

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,407 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 4,792 sqft lot $128/sqft · 30% below area Est $258k · 30% under $58/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cozy home offers natural light throughout the home including quartz countertops, vinyl flooring , a walk-in closet in the master suite, solar panels for energy efficiency, in a very desirable location near Lake Lavon. Community amenities feature a clubhouse, greenbelt, playground, park, pool with lazy river, catch and release pond, beach, sand volleyball court, fitness center, walking trails, basketball court and green space for great entertainment & your memorable gatherings. All info contained herein is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. To help visualize this homes floor plan and to highlight its potential virtual furnishings may have been added to photos found in this listing.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Vinyl flooring
• Fitness center

Tags

• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• VINYL FLOORING
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SOLAR PANELS
• POOL WITH LAZY RIVER
• FITNESS CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-506/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (4.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,904
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -30.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5430 Longshadow Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+2%)	1mo	$205,000	$143	92
5313 Vinebrook Way	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,407 (0%)	5mo	$215,000	$153	91
628 Dashwood Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,407 (0%)	2mo	$245,000	$174	90
528 Autumnwood Way	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+7%)	3mo	$240,000	$160	72
416 Ardsley Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,438 (+2%)	0mo	$259,000	$180	68
5300 County Road 437	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,514 (+8%)	0mo	$399,000	$264	64
6110 Pinion Trl	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,419 (+1%)	1mo	$229,990	$162	64
745 Twinvale Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+13%)	6mo	$250,000	$157	60
122 Autumn Sage Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,438 (+2%)	3mo	$230,000	$160	60
4925 Woodloch Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+13%)	5mo	$259,000	$162	50
5125 Greywing Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+14%)	4mo	$320,000	$200	49
6100 Pinion Trl	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,549 (+10%)	1mo	$237,490	$153	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-37,372
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-57,346
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,975 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$526 /mo · $6,309/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,028

Max offer price $172,457

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $60	-5% $9	+0% $-42	+5% $-93	+10% $-144
Rent	-10% $-198	-5% $-120	+0% $-42	+5% $36	+10% $114
Rate	-1.0pp $48	-0.5pp $4	base $-42	+0.5pp $-89	+1.0pp $-136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5324 Vinebrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,695	$1.34	44d	1	0.08mi
5318 Curwood Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	44d	1	0.12mi
5322 Longshadow Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,899	$1.35	21d	1	0.14mi
5322 Longshadow Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,699	$1.21	2d	1	0.14mi
718 Trestle Dr Princeton, TX	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,750	$1.73	17d	1	0.15mi
617 Dashwood Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,619	$1.12	3d	1	0.18mi
5213 Longshadow Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,035	$1.62	6d	1	0.23mi
510 Olmstead Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,395	$1.90	6d	1	0.30mi
5405 Lavender Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,900	$1.13	25d	1	0.31mi
5405 Lavender Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,900	$1.13	44d	1	0.31mi
404 Dewberry St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$1,850	$1.11	44d	1	0.40mi
427 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,800	$1.21	4d	1	0.41mi
320 Dewberry St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,745	$1.18	13d	1	0.44mi
411 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1675	$1,995	$1.19	44d	1	0.44mi
403 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,849	$1.25	25d	1	0.45mi
403 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,749	$1.18	6d	1	0.45mi
330 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	19d	1	0.45mi
5808 Cherry Hollow Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,749	$1.39	18d	1	0.47mi
318 Mahogany Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	25d	1	0.52mi
5105 Greywing Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,895	$1.32	18d	1	0.55mi
524 Hackney Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,900	$1.19	25d	1	0.57mi
605 Merriam Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$2,250	$1.41	44d	1	0.58mi
5119 Winterberry Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,135	$1.16	44d	1	0.58mi
4912 Ascot Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,050	$1.14	44d	1	0.59mi
5847 Rock Maple Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,785	$1.21	17d	1	0.59mi
5847 Rock Maple Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,785	$1.21	8d	1	0.59mi
5836 Crystal Water Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,799	$1.21	6d	1	0.59mi
725 Alden Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$2,099	$1.32	12d	1	0.61mi
705 Alden Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$2,100	$1.32	44d	1	0.61mi
501 Merriam Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,500	$1.36	19d	1	0.63mi
4812 Sagerun Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,099	$1.14	3d	1	0.64mi
136 Honeysuckle St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,700	$1.34	44d	1	0.66mi
6018 Primrose Rd , TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1484	$1,800	$1.21	3d	5	0.66mi
128 Honeysuckle St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1675	$2,200	$1.31	19d	1	0.68mi
6015 Pinion Trl , TX	4.0	2.5	1615	$1,950	$1.21	44d	1	0.68mi
6102 Pinion Trl , TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,600	$1.13	44d	1	0.69mi
119 Cypress Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,750	$1.39	44d	1	0.69mi
252 Ardsley Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	3d	1	0.69mi
252 Ardsley Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	17d	1	0.69mi
5504 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,999	$1.35	5d	1	0.69mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $179,900 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,900 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    price $189,900 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    This cozy home offers natural light throughout the home including quartz countertops, vinyl flooring , a walk-in closet in the master suite, solar panels for energy efficiency, in a very desirable location near Lake Lavon. Community amenities feature a clubhouse, greenbelt, playground, park, pool with lazy river, catch and release pond, beach, sand volleyball court, fitness center, walking trails, basketball court and green space for great entertainment & your memorable gatherings. All info contained herein is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. To help visualize this homes floor plan and to highlight its potential virtual furnishings may have been added to photos found in this listing.

16. 2026-04-28
    status Active 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    This cozy home offers natural light throughout the home including quartz countertops, vinyl flooring , a walk-in closet in the master suite, solar panels for energy efficiency, in a very desirable location near Lake Lavon. Community amenities feature a clubhouse, greenbelt, playground, park, pool with lazy river, catch and release pond, beach, sand volleyball court, fitness center, walking trails, basketball court and green space for great entertainment & your memorable gatherings. All info contained herein is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. To help visualize this homes floor plan and to highlight its potential virtual furnishings may have been added to photos found in this listing.

17. 2026-04-15
    historical Active Option Contract 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    This cozy home offers natural light throughout the home including quartz countertops, vinyl flooring , a walk-in closet in the master suite, solar panels for energy efficiency, in a very desirable location near Lake Lavon. Community amenities feature a clubhouse, greenbelt, playground, park, pool with lazy river, catch and release pond, beach, sand volleyball court, fitness center, walking trails, basketball court and green space for great entertainment & your memorable gatherings. All info contained herein is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. To help visualize this homes floor plan and to highlight its potential virtual furnishings may have been added to photos found in this listing.

18. 2026-03-25
    listed $199,900 Active 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    This cozy home offers natural light throughout the home including quartz countertops, vinyl flooring , a walk-in closet in the master suite, solar panels for energy efficiency, in a very desirable location near Lake Lavon. Community amenities feature a clubhouse, greenbelt, playground, park, pool with lazy river, catch and release pond, beach, sand volleyball court, fitness center, walking trails, basketball court and green space for great entertainment & your memorable gatherings. All info contained herein is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. To help visualize this homes floor plan and to highlight its potential virtual furnishings may have been added to photos found in this listing.

19. 2023-07-31
    historical $2,200
20. 2023-07-21
    historical
21. 2023-07-16
    listed $2,200
22. 2023-07-13
    price $290,000
23. 2023-05-19
    price $305,000
24. 2023-04-15
    listed $310,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,309 · $526/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,309 · $526/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$6,309
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,896
• − Management: −$1,896
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$3,310
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$795
• After-tax cash flow: $289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in a desirable location near Lake Lavon offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. The property is move-in ready with a fresh paint job and new blinds enhancing its curb appeal and rental potential.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Rental replace blinds — new blinds improve light control and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental replace blinds — new blinds improve light control and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wylie

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #8623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-38.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $189,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-15 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $199,900 NTREIS
• 2023-07-31 Rental Removed $2,200 NTREIS
• 2023-07-21 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-07-16 Listed for Rent $2,200 NTREIS
• 2023-07-13 Price Changed $290,000 NTREIS
• 2023-05-19 Price Changed $305,000 NTREIS
• 2023-04-15 Listed $310,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+76.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,309 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.