Colony 157 Cranberry Village Estates Plan · Cranberry, PA 16066

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured · 385 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new Colony 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home located in our beautiful, private community. Transom window in Living Room, lots of cabinetry through the house, central air conditioning, black appliances, ceiling fans, 10 x 10 storage shed, paved sidewalk, poured patio and driveway are included in the price along with landscaping.

Key facts

• Black appliances
• Ceiling fans
• Storage shed

Tags

• TRANSOM WINDOW
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• BLACK APPLIANCES
• CEILING FANS
• STORAGE SHED
• PAVED SIDEWALK

🏗️ New construction. The $119,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $51,161.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Seneca Valley SD (rural): math 48% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #73 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 288 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 987 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $354 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butler County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 385 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 385 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 111.15%
• DSCR: 5.95
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $51,161
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: 134.36%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
601 Country Vue Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+5%)	4mo	$70,000	$58	77
140 Treesdale Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+5%)	21mo	$55,000	$46	72
402 Sunnydale Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+5%)	21mo	$30,000	$25	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.89×
• Total profit: $70,015
• Equity at exit: $7,628

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.18×
• Total profit: $145,824
• Equity at exit: $4,423

Cash invested: $14,325 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16066

• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,127 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$268
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$64 /mo · $767/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $1,327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $448

Max offer price $51,161

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,790
• Closing costs: $1,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
244 E Commons Dr Cranberry Township, PA	2.0	1.5	1116	$1,700	$1.52	12d	1	0.34mi
315 Bellford Ct Cranberry Township, PA	2.0	1.5	1116	$850	$0.76	17d	1	0.35mi
411 Sussex Dr Cranberry Township, PA	4.0	2.0	1352	$2,500	$1.85	14d	1	0.59mi
26 Monmouth Dr Cranberry Township, PA	3.0	1.5	1470	$2,150	$1.46	1d	1	0.62mi
24 Robinhood Dr Cranberry Township, PA	3.0	1.5	1170	$2,125	$1.82	43d	1	0.71mi
10100 Kettlecreek Dr Cranberry Township, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$1,875	$1.92	1d	21	0.81mi
90 Berkley Manor Dr Cranberry Township, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$2,340	$2.29	1d	16	0.83mi
8000 Brandt Dr Cranberry Twp, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1193	$2,776	$2.33	1d	26	1.00mi
401 Collingwood Ct Cranberry Twp, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,865	$1.96	1d	1	1.06mi
102 Holly Dr Cranberry Township, PA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$1,175	$1.04	1d	1	1.22mi
15000 Metropolitan WAY Cranberry Twp, PA	2.0	2.0	1202	$1,805	$1.50	2d	4	1.23mi
1000 Strand Rd Cranberry Township, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$3,048	$2.73	2d	13	1.34mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 385 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 384 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 383 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 381 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 380 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 377 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 376 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,900 Active 375 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $119,900 Active 372 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 371 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 370 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 369 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 368 DOM
14. 2026-01-14
    price $119,900 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Brand new Colony 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home located in our beautiful, private community. Transom window in Living Room, lots of cabinetry through the house, central air conditioning, black appliances, ceiling fans, 10 x 10 storage shed, paved sidewalk, poured patio and driveway are included in the price along with landscaping.

15. 2025-05-28
    listed $122,500 Active 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Brand new Colony 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home located in our beautiful, private community. Transom window in Living Room, lots of cabinetry through the house, central air conditioning, black appliances, ceiling fans, 10 x 10 storage shed, paved sidewalk, poured patio and driveway are included in the price along with landscaping.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,525
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,866
• − Property taxes: −$767
• − Insurance: −$256
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,042
• − Management: −$2,042
• − Depreciation: −$1,488
• Taxable income: $16,064
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,855
• After-tax cash flow: $12,067/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new mobile home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It's move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Painting exterior trim — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value.
• Both Add a small outdoor seating area — Creates a welcoming space for potential buyers or renters.
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch to the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Painting exterior trim — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Add a small outdoor seating area — Creates a welcoming space for potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch to the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seneca Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4222440
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $80,381
• Composite: 51.84/100
• National rank: #1666
• State rank: #73 of 539 in PA

Livability — Cranberry

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Butler County · 73,107 people
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• Population (ZIP): 33,873
• Household income: $124,189
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 536.0

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 190,777 people
• By 2030: 191,476 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 189,474 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 182,050 · -4.6%
• By 2075: 159,526 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 129,028 · -32.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.5% · R 65.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+37.5 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.35%
• Current HPI: 276.4597
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.93%
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $119,900 Zillow
• 2025-05-28 Listed $122,500 Zillow