Cedar Plan · Port St. Lucie, FL 34953

$361,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,604 sqft · SingleFamily · 82 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Split plan design
• Guest suite
• Den office

Tags

• CEDAR NEW HOME FLOORPLAN
• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SPLIT PLAN DESIGN
• GUEST SUITE
• DEN OFFICE

🏗️ New construction. The $361,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $606,732.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $362k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $323k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 758 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,229/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 857% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $322,936 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.60%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $606,732
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
509 SW Nautical Ave	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,364 (-9%)	9mo	$549,900	$233	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-211,624
• Equity at exit: $90,466

10-year hold

• IRR: -86.1%
• Equity multiple: -1.08×
• Total profit: $-352,840
• Equity at exit: $52,459

Cash invested: $169,885 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34953

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 758
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,229 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,182
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$758 /mo · $9,101/yr
• Insurance: −$253
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$678
• Net cashflow: $-1,642

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,308

Max offer price $369,162

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $151,683
• Closing costs: $18,202
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
543 SW Whitmore Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,950	$1.54	23d	1	0.25mi
1782 SW Bayshore Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	3.0	2094	$3,200	$1.53	23d	1	0.64mi
238 SW Grove Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1951	$4,000	$2.05	23d	1	0.67mi
1941 SW Hampshire Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1908	$2,600	$1.36	23d	1	0.95mi
1672 SW Pleasant Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	2672	$2,999	$1.12	23d	1	1.00mi
221 SW Voltair Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.5	2232	$3,000	$1.34	23d	1	1.02mi
1521 SE Ladner St Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1844	$1,400	$0.76	23d	1	1.14mi
726 SW Byron St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	2058	$2,600	$1.26	23d	1	1.16mi
1992 SW Brisbane St Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	3.0	2478	$4,995	$2.02	23d	1	1.21mi
2180 SW Cameo Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$3,400	$1.89	23d	1	1.28mi
928 SW John Maccormack Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.5	1802	$2,800	$1.55	14d	1	1.32mi
2078 SW Idaho Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,361	$1.31	14d	1	1.35mi
530 SW Butler Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1986	$2,700	$1.36	14d	1	1.38mi
619 SW Post Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1827	$2,600	$1.42	23d	1	1.43mi
1143 SW Estaugh Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	3.0	1941	$2,800	$1.44	23d	1	1.44mi
2141 SW Bayshore Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1918	$3,300	$1.72	14d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $361,990 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $361,990 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $361,990 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $361,990 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   listed $361,990 Active 78 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,986
• − Property taxes: −$9,101
• − Insurance: −$3,034
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,100
• − Management: −$3,100
• − Depreciation: −$17,650
• Taxable loss: −$31,220
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,493
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. Lucie, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 86,875
• Household income: $85,667
• Rent vs Own: 13.1% rent · 86.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 857.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 23% Two or more races 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 2% Estonian 2%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.19%
• Current HPI: 392.7681
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.22%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B