407 Potomac Ave · Buffalo, NY 14213

$409,900

8 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,340 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1900 4,380 sqft lot Est $404k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated West Side triple offering original charm and modern updates, along with an excellent layout, major upgrades, and outstanding curb appeal. A charming front porch welcomes you into a shared entryway. The first-floor unit features a sun-filled living room with large windows, formal dining room with leaded glass windows and decorative fireplace, updated kitchen with vinyl flooring and abundant storage, three spacious bedrooms, and a large updated full bath. The second-floor unit offers a bright living room with great views, formal dining room, spacious kitchen with vinyl flooring and ample storage, two bedrooms, and a full bath. The third-floor unit features an open kitchen/

Key facts

• Large concrete patio
• Decorative fireplace
• Formal dining room

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE YARD
• LARGE CONCRETE PATIO
• ABUNDANT STORAGE
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• DECORATIVE FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Operating expense details: See remarks; Owner pays: See remarks

Exterior

• Parking: One parking space
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Multi-family property with 3 units; 2 stories
• Construction: Wood siding; Stone foundation; Existing (previously built)
• Exterior features: Rectangular lot; Near public transit

Interior

• Kitchen: Dining area with kitchen (in 1-bedroom unit); Kitchens in each unit
• Bedrooms: One 1-bedroom unit; One 2-bedroom unit; One 3-bedroom unit
• Flooring: Hardwood; Varies by unit
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms (one per unit)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced air heating
• Interior features: Attic; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 8-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $410k).
• Recommended offer: $404k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,532/mo this rent would consume 101% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1501% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $115k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $230k; list at $410k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $403,751 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.14%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $404,140
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
388 Lafayette Ave	0.23mi	8/3.0	3,539 (+6%)	9mo	$520,000	$147	72
118 Congress St	0.43mi	9/3.0 (+1)	3,382 (+1%)	20mo	$295,000	$87	56
738 Auburn Ave	0.65mi	7/3.0 (-1)	3,174 (-5%)	12mo	$575,000	$181	46
428 Norwood Ave	0.53mi	7/3.0 (-1)	3,114 (-7%)	18mo	$658,250	$211	44
261 Breckenridge St	0.64mi	8/3.0	3,120 (-7%)	22mo	$160,000	$51	41
530 W Ferry St Unit N	0.58mi	7/3.5 (-1)	3,803 (+14%)	4mo	$749,000	$197	39
312 Dewitt St	0.55mi	8/3.0	2,940 (-12%)	19mo	$290,000	$99	39
50 Arnold St	0.57mi	7/2.0 (-1)	2,905 (-13%)	15mo	$204,000	$70	30
446 Massachusetts Ave	0.69mi	7/3.0 (-1)	2,894 (-13%)	18mo	$350,000	$121	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.51% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $216,619
• Equity at exit: $297,904

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $548,772
• Equity at exit: $578,899

Cash invested: $114,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14213

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 20.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,532 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,190/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$952
• Net cashflow: $1,161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,063

Max offer price $409,900

Occupancy floor 69%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	3	1	$1,657
1× unit	2	1	$1,529
1× unit	1	1	$1,346
Total (3 units)			$4,532

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,475
• Closing costs: $12,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $409,900 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $409,900 Active Under Contract 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $409,900 Active Under Contract 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $409,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $409,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $409,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $409,900 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $419,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $419,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $419,900 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $419,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $419,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $419,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $419,900 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    listed $419,900 Active
16. 2025-05-06
    historical $1,350
17. 2025-05-06
    historical $1,350
18. 2025-03-07
    price $1,350
19. 2025-03-06
    listed $1,200
20. 2025-02-14
    listed $1,400
21. 2019-05-22
    soldstatus $230,000
22. 2005-02-28
    soldstatus $51,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,059 · $338/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,868/yr (+$239/mo · 241.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,961
• − Property taxes: −$1,190
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,351
• − Management: −$4,351
• − Depreciation: −$11,924
• Taxable income: $7,558
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,814
• After-tax cash flow: $12,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,107
• Household income: $53,870
• Rent vs Own: 60.5% rent · 39.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1501.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 18% Asian 12% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 16% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 7% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Current HPI: 448.4879
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+723.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $419,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-05-06 Rental Removed $1,350 WNYREIS
• 2025-05-06 Rental Removed $1,350 WNYREIS
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $1,350 WNYREIS
• 2025-03-06 Listed for Rent $1,200 WNYREIS
• 2025-02-14 Listed for Rent $1,400 WNYREIS
• 2019-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,190 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.