846 Mill River Rd · Jacksonville, NC 28540

$174,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1986 0.68 ac lot Est $239k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Imagine the joy of stepping into a home where modern country charm and spacious living come together beautifully! This lovely 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers an open-concept layout that feels wonderfully bright and welcoming. You'll love the heart of the home: a modern kitchen featuring a deep farmhouse sink and plenty of storage. The peaceful primary suite includes a spacious walk-in closet and a relaxing en-suite bath, while the guest rooms are tucked away on the other side for extra privacy. Plus, there's a versatile bonus room perfect for whatever your heart desires! Outside, you can relax on the expansive deck or the cozy front porch surrounded by beautiful, mature trees. With

Key facts

• Deep farmhouse sink
• Large bonus room
• Lush backyard oasis

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• DEEP FARMHOUSE SINK
• LUSH BACKYARD OASIS
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• LUXURIOUS EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• LARGE BONUS ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R-15; Lot dimensions: 71 x 325 x 29 x 85 x 314 (0.68 acres); Subdivision: West River

Exterior

• Parking: On-site parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; One level / single-story; Entry level: 1; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space / no basement; Built-in year not specified
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Porch; Wood fencing in back yard; Has a view; Other structures (see remarks); Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-44/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.4% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#111 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Onslow County Schools (other): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #84 of 178 in NC (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blue Creek Elementary (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #574 of 1,410 statewide, top 43%, 490 students, 66% FRL); Southwest Middle (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #317 of 475 statewide, top 68%, 527 students, 64% FRL); Southwest High (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #311 of 535 statewide, top 60%, 702 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 37% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 380 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,246 units permitted in Onslow County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,095 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,096
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
848 Mill River Rd	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,072 (-6%)	14mo	$224,000	$209	77
302 Southwest Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,177 (+3%)	5mo	$248,000	$211	72
863 Mill River Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,098 (-4%)	20mo	$157,000	$143	70
816 Mill River Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+14%)	6mo	$250,000	$192	61
811 Mill River Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+12%)	23mo	$224,900	$176	49
289 Haws Run Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,243 (+9%)	23mo	$265,000	$213	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-26,460
• Equity at exit: $25,944

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-15,013
• Equity at exit: $15,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28540

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 380
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,351 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,031/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $173,358

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2980 Burgaw Hwy Jacksonville, NC	2.0	2.0	960	$904	$0.94	13d	1	1.03mi
2980 Burgaw Hwy Unit 22 Jacksonville, NC	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,200	$1.14	21d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $174,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $186,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $186,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $186,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $186,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $186,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $186,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $186,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $186,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $186,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $186,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $186,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $186,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $186,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $186,000 Active 17 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    listed $186,000 Active
19. 2025-01-01
    listed $190,000 Active
20. 2024-12-12
    status Active
21. 2024-12-10
    status Pending
22. 2024-12-10
    historical
23. 2024-11-18
    price $220,000
24. 2024-10-17
    price $224,900
25. 2024-09-26
    price $225,000
26. 2024-09-05
    price $230,000
27. 2024-08-22
    listed $235,000 Active
28. 2022-01-05
    soldstatus $201,000
29. 2022-01-05
    soldstatus $201,000
30. 2021-10-17
    listed $205,000
31. 2019-03-18
    soldstatus $128,250
32. 2019-03-18
    soldstatus $128,500
33. 2018-12-18
    listed $127,555
34. 2009-09-01
    soldstatus $131,000
35. 2001-06-05
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,031 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,427 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$396/yr (+$33/mo · 38.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$1,031
• − Insurance: −$870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,297
• − Management: −$1,297
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable loss: −$3,092
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$742
• After-tax cash flow: $698/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onslow County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703450
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,076
• Composite: 38.66/100
• National rank: #4148
• State rank: #84 of 178 in NC

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #6991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Onslow County · 164,453 people
• City population: 96,397
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 49,141
• Household income: $65,625
• Rent vs Own: 38.2% rent · 61.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1304.0

Population outlook (Onslow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,789 people
• By 2030: 194,463 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 193,629 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 193,248 · +1.8%
• By 2075: 196,995 · +3.8%
• By 2100: 201,513 · +6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onslow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 31.5% · R 67.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.5pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+34.6 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+21.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.11%
• Current HPI: 219.5571
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.47%
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+148.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $186,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-01-01 Listed $190,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-12-12 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2024-12-10 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2024-12-10 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2024-11-18 Price Changed $220,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-10-17 Price Changed $224,900 Hive MLS
• 2024-09-26 Price Changed $225,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $230,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-08-22 Listed $235,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $201,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-05 Sold (MLS) $201,000 Hive MLS
• 2021-10-17 Listed $205,000 Hive MLS
• 2019-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $128,500 Public Records
• 2019-03-18 Sold (MLS) $128,250 Hive MLS
• 2018-12-18 Listed $127,555 Hive MLS
• 2009-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $131,000 Public Records
• 2001-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,031 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.