84 Chapel Ave · East Patchogue, NY 11772

$399,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 765 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1879 0.80 ac lot Est $532k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cash offers, Contract vendee, sold as is, occupied. Waterfront property with tremendous opportunity for builder, developer, investor or end user looking to put their touches on it. 3 Bed, 1 bath colonial, with partial basement.

Key facts

• 0.8 acre lot
• Built 1879
• Listed 8 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $330k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.1% in East Patchogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#769 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #73 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1879 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $330,266 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1879 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.58%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $532,440
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
72 Conklin Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	754 (-1%)	2mo	$525,000	$696	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-48,538
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-685
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11772

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,303 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,377/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$694
• Net cashflow: $147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,116

Max offer price $399,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39 Laurel St Patchogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,400	$3.09	24d	1	1.11mi
1 Village Green Way Patchogue, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	947	$3,974	$4.19	1d	7	1.27mi
80 Division St Unit 2B Patchogue, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,500	$3.18	43d	1	1.28mi
80 Division St Patchogue, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,100	$3.10	24d	1	1.28mi
22 Jennings Ave Unit B Patchogue, NY	2.0	1.0	919	$3,000	$3.26	1d	1	1.31mi
309 Robinson Ave Unit 6 Patchogue, NY	2.0	1.0	928	$2,750	$2.96	43d	1	1.35mi
301 Robinson Ave East Patchogue, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	785	$2,850	$3.63	19d	1	1.37mi
34 Union Ave Patchogue, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,000	$3.00	5d	1	1.38mi
9 Pondview Dr East Patchogue, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	864	$3,033	$3.51	1d	18	1.39mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $399,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,568 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,191/yr (+$183/mo · 92.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$2,377
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,171
• − Management: −$3,171
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$5,120
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,229
• After-tax cash flow: $2,996/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3622470
• Math proficiency: 83% ▲ 27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $75,120
• Composite: 66.81/100
• National rank: #405
• State rank: #73 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Patchogue

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #769
• US rank: #14732

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Patchogue, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 45,006
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 45,023
• Household income: $105,245
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1595.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -578.02%
• Current HPI: 375.1174
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listed $399,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,377 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.