753 Steam Hollow Rd · Shenandoah, VA 22849

$178,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1974 1.10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Multi Unit Property in Steam Hollow! This property consists of a 2 BR 1 BA house, a 3 BR 1.5 BA singlewide trailer and a 1 car detached garage! The potential is in place for this property to be income producing! All structures are in need of repair in order to be livable. The property is situated at the end of a state maintained road allowing for convenient access with privacy. This property is being sold strictly in "as-is" condition.

Key facts

• Privacy
• Convenient access
• Multi unit property

Tags

• MULTI UNIT PROPERTY
• INCOME PRODUCING
• STATE MAINTAINED ROAD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• PRIVACY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with side entry (1-car)
• Utilities: Electric hot water; Septic system; Well water
• Home design: Detached structure; Year built estimated; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Tidal water not present; Other structures above and below grade

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Interior features: No basement; Finished above-grade living area (per assessor)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.6% in Shenandoah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#304 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Page County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #96 of 131 in VA (top 73%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shenandoah Elementary (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #696 of 1,108 statewide, top 66%, 315 students, 81% FRL); Page County Middle (math 36% / reading 60%, grade C-, #247 of 342 statewide, top 74%, 352 students, 70% FRL); Page County High (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 495 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 45% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Page County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Page County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $178k implies a 197% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,660 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.32%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-13,734
• Equity at exit: $26,540

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $7,418
• Equity at exit: $15,390

Cash invested: $49,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22849

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,745 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $799/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,444

Max offer price $178,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $338	-5% $288	+0% $238	+5% $187	+10% $137
Rent	-10% $100	-5% $169	+0% $238	+5% $307	+10% $376
Rate	-1.0pp $327	-0.5pp $283	base $238	+0.5pp $192	+1.0pp $145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,500
• Closing costs: $5,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $178,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $178,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $178,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $178,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $178,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $178,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $178,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $178,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $178,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $178,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $178,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $178,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $178,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $178,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $178,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $178,000 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $178,000 Active 8 DOM
18. 2026-05-22
    listed $178,000 Active
19. 1998-10-29
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $799 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,460 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$661/yr (+$55/mo · 82.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,971
• − Property taxes: −$799
• − Insurance: −$1,688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,675
• − Management: −$1,675
• − Depreciation: −$5,178
• Taxable loss: −$48
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$12
• After-tax cash flow: $2,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Page County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102850
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,808
• Composite: 43.77/100
• National rank: #2943
• State rank: #96 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shenandoah

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #10921

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,291

Population outlook (Page County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,843 people
• By 2030: 22,147 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 20,427 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 18,461 · -19.2%
• By 2075: 14,363 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 10,678 · -53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Page

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.1) · D 22.5% · R 76.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -54.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.1 2020: R+50.6 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+25.7 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.38%
• Current HPI: 216.3367
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+196.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $178,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $799 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.