1002 Willow St · Mexia, TX 76667

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 103 Days on market

Built 2001 8,451 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready with recent updates, this property offers comfort, convenience, and value. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the home has seen several improvements including a new composition roof installed in July 2025, luxury vinyl plank flooring in the kitchen, utility area, and both bathrooms installed by Lowe’s, fresh interior paint, new blinds, and a new kitchen vent hood. The functional floor plan provides spacious living areas, a practical kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a private primary suite with a full bath. The desirable split-bedroom layout offers privacy between the primary suite and secondary bedrooms. Situated on a spacious lot, this property is conveniently located near schools, downtown Mexia, and local amenities, making everyday living easy and accessible. Investor-friendly opportunity with strong rental potential. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence or an investment property, this home is ready to go. Schedule your showing today and see the potential for yourself!

Key facts

• New composition roof
• Spacious lot
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• NEW COMPOSITION ROOF
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW KITCHEN VENT HOOD
• SPACIOUS LOT
• NEAR DOWNTOWN MEXIA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.6% in Mexia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#458 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Mexia ISD (town): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #696 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Limestone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,659 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.18%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-8,748
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $7,224
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76667

• Home prices YoY: -8.9%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,314 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,808/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,086

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $124,900 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $124,900 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-03-07
    listed $124,900 Active 1038-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1038 chars)

    Move-in ready with recent updates, this property offers comfort, convenience, and value. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the home has seen several improvements including a new composition roof installed in July 2025, luxury vinyl plank flooring in the kitchen, utility area, and both bathrooms installed by Lowe’s, fresh interior paint, new blinds, and a new kitchen vent hood. The functional floor plan provides spacious living areas, a practical kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a private primary suite with a full bath. The desirable split-bedroom layout offers privacy between the primary suite and secondary bedrooms. Situated on a spacious lot, this property is conveniently located near schools, downtown Mexia, and local amenities, making everyday living easy and accessible. Investor-friendly opportunity with strong rental potential. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence or an investment property, this home is ready to go. Schedule your showing today and see the potential for yourself!

17. 2003-01-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,808 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,286 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$477/yr (+$40/mo · 26.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,765
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,808
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,261
• − Management: −$1,261
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $180
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$43
• After-tax cash flow: $2,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mexia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830420
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $37,464
• Composite: 22.48/100
• National rank: #8101
• State rank: #696 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mexia

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #458
• US rank: #9265

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mexia, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,494

Population outlook (Limestone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,396 people
• By 2030: 23,214 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 22,829 · -2.4%
• By 2050: 22,516 · -3.8%
• By 2075: 22,088 · -5.6%
• By 2100: 20,354 · -13.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 24% Black 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Limestone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.9) · D 21.2% · R 78.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -56.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.9 2020: R+50.3 2016: R+52.3 2012: R+40.7 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.91%
• Current HPI: 161.8191
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Listed $124,900 NTREIS
• 2003-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,808 · +15.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.