3855 Heartwood St · Panama City, FL 32404

$310,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,984 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 2022 0.26 ac lot $156/sqft · 14% below area Est $361k · 14% under ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEST Priced in highly sought-after College Station neighborhood of Panama City! This welcoming open floor plan features three-bedrooms, two-bathrooms offering 1,901 square feet of well-designed living space that checks all the boxes for comfortable Florida living. The split floor plan gives everyone their own space, which is honestly one of the smartest layouts out there. The primary bedroom is a true retreat, featuring a large closet and a double vanity bathroom that makes morning routines a breeze. Vaulted ceilings throughout create an airy, open feel that makes the home live even larger than its generous square footage suggests. Vinyl plank flooring runs through the home, giving you that beautiful look without the fussy maintenance. The kitchen comes equipped with a pantry, because nobody ever complained about having too much storage. Ceiling fans keep things comfortable alongside the central electric system, and the garage provides covered parking plus extra room for all your stuff. The quality of construction here is evident in every detail, built to handle the Florida lifestyle with ease. The neighborhood puts you in a fantastic spot with Publix just minutes away for grocery runs, Zollie Young Dog Park nearby for your pets, and North Bay Haven Charter Academy right around the corner. Residents will also appreciate easy access to Mosley High School and even Florida State University Panama City for higher education options. This one is fresh on the market and ready for its new owners. Schedule your showing today before someone else calls it home! Washer, Dryer, and TV in primary bedroom convey in as-is condition with the sale of this home.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Large closet
• Split floor plan

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE CLOSET
• DOUBLE VANITY BATHROOM
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-381 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 969 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,955 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.27%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,302
• List price: $310,000
• Delta: -14.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3869 Sandpine Way	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,813 (-9%)	1mo	$358,000	$197	82
3584 Basal St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,901 (-4%)	6mo	$370,000	$195	69
3748 Basal St	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,074 (+4%)	6mo	$384,327	$185	68
4728 Bylsma Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,911 (-4%)	3mo	$380,000	$199	68
3535 Cedar Park Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,001 (+1%)	6mo	$480,000	$240	65
3695 Cedar Park Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,803 (-9%)	2mo	$379,900	$211	63
4606 Bylsma Cir	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,808 (-9%)	4mo	$330,000	$183	57
3665 Cedar Park Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,751 (-12%)	1mo	$369,000	$211	54
4522 Bylsma Cir	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,867 (-6%)	4mo	$375,000	$201	54
4210 Florence Tolsma Way	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,754 (-12%)	4mo	$340,000	$194	51
3961 Alwyn Cashe Ave #49	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,744 (-12%)	0mo	$306,490	$176	45
3944 Alwyn Cashe Ave #74	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,744 (-12%)	5mo	$299,990	$172	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-78,551
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-115,584
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 969
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$341 /mo · $4,086/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,652

Max offer price $242,621

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-206	-5% $-294	+0% $-381	+5% $-469	+10% $-557
Rent	-10% $-553	-5% $-467	+0% $-381	+5% $-296	+10% $-210
Rate	-1.0pp $-225	-0.5pp $-303	base $-381	+0.5pp $-462	+1.0pp $-543

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4113 Brighton Blvd Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,300	$1.29	14d	1	0.90mi
4012 Millicent Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	21d	1	0.91mi
4031 Oak Forest Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,100	$1.28	21d	1	1.15mi
4201 County Road 390 Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1275	$1,999	$1.57	21d	7	1.17mi
3884 Red Deer Cir Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1972	$2,200	$1.12	21d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $310,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $310,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $310,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $339,500 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,500 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $339,500 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,500 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $339,500 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,500 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,500 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,500 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,500 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $339,500 Active 51 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    price $339,500 1671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1671 chars)

    BEST Priced in highly sought-after College Station neighborhood of Panama City! This welcoming open floor plan features three-bedrooms, two-bathrooms offering 1,901 square feet of well-designed living space that checks all the boxes for comfortable Florida living. The split floor plan gives everyone their own space, which is honestly one of the smartest layouts out there. The primary bedroom is a true retreat, featuring a large closet and a double vanity bathroom that makes morning routines a breeze. Vaulted ceilings throughout create an airy, open feel that makes the home live even larger than its generous square footage suggests. Vinyl plank flooring runs through the home, giving you that beautiful look without the fussy maintenance. The kitchen comes equipped with a pantry, because nobody ever complained about having too much storage. Ceiling fans keep things comfortable alongside the central electric system, and the garage provides covered parking plus extra room for all your stuff. The quality of construction here is evident in every detail, built to handle the Florida lifestyle with ease. The neighborhood puts you in a fantastic spot with Publix just minutes away for grocery runs, Zollie Young Dog Park nearby for your pets, and North Bay Haven Charter Academy right around the corner. Residents will also appreciate easy access to Mosley High School and even Florida State University Panama City for higher education options. This one is fresh on the market and ready for its new owners. Schedule your showing today before someone else calls it home! Washer, Dryer, and TV in primary bedroom convey in as-is condition with the sale of this home.

19. 2026-04-06
    listed $354,500 Active 1671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1671 chars)

    BEST Priced in highly sought-after College Station neighborhood of Panama City! This welcoming open floor plan features three-bedrooms, two-bathrooms offering 1,901 square feet of well-designed living space that checks all the boxes for comfortable Florida living. The split floor plan gives everyone their own space, which is honestly one of the smartest layouts out there. The primary bedroom is a true retreat, featuring a large closet and a double vanity bathroom that makes morning routines a breeze. Vaulted ceilings throughout create an airy, open feel that makes the home live even larger than its generous square footage suggests. Vinyl plank flooring runs through the home, giving you that beautiful look without the fussy maintenance. The kitchen comes equipped with a pantry, because nobody ever complained about having too much storage. Ceiling fans keep things comfortable alongside the central electric system, and the garage provides covered parking plus extra room for all your stuff. The quality of construction here is evident in every detail, built to handle the Florida lifestyle with ease. The neighborhood puts you in a fantastic spot with Publix just minutes away for grocery runs, Zollie Young Dog Park nearby for your pets, and North Bay Haven Charter Academy right around the corner. Residents will also appreciate easy access to Mosley High School and even Florida State University Panama City for higher education options. This one is fresh on the market and ready for its new owners. Schedule your showing today before someone else calls it home! Washer, Dryer, and TV in primary bedroom convey in as-is condition with the sale of this home.

20. 2023-11-16
    historical $2,450
21. 2023-11-15
    listed $2,450
22. 2022-05-24
    soldstatus $343,543 Closed 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath 2 car garage Sprinkler system, fully sodded yard, garage opener.

23. 2022-02-19
    historical 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath 2 car garage Sprinkler system, fully sodded yard, garage opener.

24. 2021-08-25
    listed $343,543 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath 2 car garage Sprinkler system, fully sodded yard, garage opener.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,086 · $341/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,086 · $341/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,035
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$4,086
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,083
• − Management: −$2,083
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$10,150
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,436
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $339,500 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $354,500 CPARMLS
• 2023-11-16 Rental Removed $2,450 RENT.
• 2023-11-15 Listed for Rent $2,450 RENT.
• 2022-05-24 Sold (MLS) $343,543 CPARMLS
• 2022-02-19 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-08-25 Listed $343,543 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+68.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,086 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.