14 Alexander Ave · Vista Center, NJ 08527

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · SingleFamily · 156 Days on market

4,356 sqft lot $113/sqft · 65% below area $558/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful&Updated home, in this Quiet Country Living 55+Adult Community which offers Taxes, Garbage Pickup, Inground Swimming Pool Plus Clubhouse for a low mo fee. Interior Features include a Enclosed Sunporch, Kitchen with Dinette, & Luxury Vinyl Flooring, Ceiling Fan, Newer Double Hung Windows. All Appliances including Stove, Refrigerator, Microwave, Washer & Dryer. Additional Features include Newer Roof, Newer siding. Natural Gas Heat with Replaced Furnace and Hot Water Heater, Central Air-Conditioning, Patio, 2 Storage Sheds, Private Yard backing to green area.Parking for 3 cars. The land lease includes community access, snow and trash removal, water and taxes. Owners are responsible for upkeep of lot. If you want to relax closer to home, the clubhouse and pool are just next door. Home is located 20 minutes from the Jersey Shore and 57 miles from Philadelphia, PA. Oak Tree is a thriving community in which to live and play. The Jackson, NJ area offers its residents enjoyable parks, lakes, and historical landmarks. Have adventures with the family at nearby Six Flags Great Adventure, Timber.lake Campground, Howling Woods Farm or Monmouth Battlefield Park. After a day of taking in the attractions, relax with a glass of wine at Cream Ridge Winery, go fishing at Johnson Memorial Park or try your luck at an Atlantic City Casino. Day to day life is made easier with nearby shops, restaurants, and food stores. Also close to Jackson Premium Outlets located at exit 16 or 16B off I-195. Interstate 195, easily accessible from both the NJ Turnpike and Garden State Parkway. With everything that Oak Tree has to offer, it is easy to understand why so many residents have chosen this community as their home. Buyers must meet requirements prior to offer. ***PLEASE BEGIN APPROVAL PROCESS WITH HOA ASAP*** without approval closing can't happen The Time to Buy a Place to Live for The Best of Your LIfe is Now!

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Natural gas heat
• Newer siding

Tags

• INGROUND SWIMMING POOL
• HEATED SUNPORCH
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER SIDING
• NATURAL GAS HEAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $763 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 3.3% in Vista Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#507 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $130k implies a 687% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.18%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $366,263
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -64.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Nicholas Blvd	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (-4%)	24mo	$79,500	$72	60
45 Marcia Memorial Cir	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	0mo	$200,000	$160	51
17 Afton Rd	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,192 (+4%)	14mo	$390,000	$327	49
41 Marcia Memorial Cir	0.64mi	2/1.0	980 (-15%)	15mo	$55,000	$56	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $19,720
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $49,526
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08527

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 572
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,809 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$558
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $763

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,843

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $853	-5% $808	+0% $763	+5% $718	+10% $674
Rent	-10% $541	-5% $652	+0% $763	+5% $874	+10% $985
Rate	-1.0pp $829	-0.5pp $796	base $763	+0.5pp $730	+1.0pp $695

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $558 · $6,696/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashgaspool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-01-16
    listed $129,900 Active 1939-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1939 chars)

    Beautiful&Updated home, in this Quiet Country Living 55+Adult Community which offers Taxes, Garbage Pickup, Inground Swimming Pool Plus Clubhouse for a low mo fee. Interior Features include a Enclosed Sunporch, Kitchen with Dinette, & Luxury Vinyl Flooring, Ceiling Fan, Newer Double Hung Windows. All Appliances including Stove, Refrigerator, Microwave, Washer & Dryer. Additional Features include Newer Roof, Newer siding. Natural Gas Heat with Replaced Furnace and Hot Water Heater, Central Air-Conditioning, Patio, 2 Storage Sheds, Private Yard backing to green area.Parking for 3 cars. The land lease includes community access, snow and trash removal, water and taxes. Owners are responsible for upkeep of lot. If you want to relax closer to home, the clubhouse and pool are just next door. Home is located 20 minutes from the Jersey Shore and 57 miles from Philadelphia, PA. Oak Tree is a thriving community in which to live and play. The Jackson, NJ area offers its residents enjoyable parks, lakes, and historical landmarks. Have adventures with the family at nearby Six Flags Great Adventure, Timber.lake Campground, Howling Woods Farm or Monmouth Battlefield Park. After a day of taking in the attractions, relax with a glass of wine at Cream Ridge Winery, go fishing at Johnson Memorial Park or try your luck at an Atlantic City Casino. Day to day life is made easier with nearby shops, restaurants, and food stores. Also close to Jackson Premium Outlets located at exit 16 or 16B off I-195. Interstate 195, easily accessible from both the NJ Turnpike and Garden State Parkway. With everything that Oak Tree has to offer, it is easy to understand why so many residents have chosen this community as their home. Buyers must meet requirements prior to offer. ***PLEASE BEGIN APPROVAL PROCESS WITH HOA ASAP*** without approval closing can't happen The Time to Buy a Place to Live for The Best of Your LIfe is Now!

17. 2021-07-13
    soldstatus $16,500 Closed 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    This community is 55 and older at Oak Tree Mobile Home Park. Very roomy kitchen with bow window, pantry and desk area. Living room with bar area for the kitchen counter. Two bedrooms one full bath with laundry area (washer and dryer included) Window unit air conditioning and a large screened in porch. Ceiling fans, gas stove, dishwasher and newer windows. Built-in closets in both bedrooms. The backyard has a shed for extra storage. Buyer must be approved by park. Home needs some freshening up. Newer skirting, and paved parking spot. Lot rent is $433.00 per month

18. 2021-07-05
    historical Active Under Contract 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    This community is 55 and older at Oak Tree Mobile Home Park. Very roomy kitchen with bow window, pantry and desk area. Living room with bar area for the kitchen counter. Two bedrooms one full bath with laundry area (washer and dryer included) Window unit air conditioning and a large screened in porch. Ceiling fans, gas stove, dishwasher and newer windows. Built-in closets in both bedrooms. The backyard has a shed for extra storage. Buyer must be approved by park. Home needs some freshening up. Newer skirting, and paved parking spot. Lot rent is $433.00 per month

19. 2021-06-28
    status Active 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    This community is 55 and older at Oak Tree Mobile Home Park. Very roomy kitchen with bow window, pantry and desk area. Living room with bar area for the kitchen counter. Two bedrooms one full bath with laundry area (washer and dryer included) Window unit air conditioning and a large screened in porch. Ceiling fans, gas stove, dishwasher and newer windows. Built-in closets in both bedrooms. The backyard has a shed for extra storage. Buyer must be approved by park. Home needs some freshening up. Newer skirting, and paved parking spot. Lot rent is $433.00 per month

20. 2021-06-26
    historical Active Under Contract 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    This community is 55 and older at Oak Tree Mobile Home Park. Very roomy kitchen with bow window, pantry and desk area. Living room with bar area for the kitchen counter. Two bedrooms one full bath with laundry area (washer and dryer included) Window unit air conditioning and a large screened in porch. Ceiling fans, gas stove, dishwasher and newer windows. Built-in closets in both bedrooms. The backyard has a shed for extra storage. Buyer must be approved by park. Home needs some freshening up. Newer skirting, and paved parking spot. Lot rent is $433.00 per month

21. 2021-06-15
    listed $23,000 Active 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    This community is 55 and older at Oak Tree Mobile Home Park. Very roomy kitchen with bow window, pantry and desk area. Living room with bar area for the kitchen counter. Two bedrooms one full bath with laundry area (washer and dryer included) Window unit air conditioning and a large screened in porch. Ceiling fans, gas stove, dishwasher and newer windows. Built-in closets in both bedrooms. The backyard has a shed for extra storage. Buyer must be approved by park. Home needs some freshening up. Newer skirting, and paved parking spot. Lot rent is $433.00 per month

22. 2011-09-22
    listed $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,697
• − Management: −$2,697
• − HOA: −$6,696
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $7,964
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,911
• After-tax cash flow: $7,248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3407740
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $86,012
• Composite: 35.36/100
• National rank: #4956
• State rank: #228 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vista Center

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #21522

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 58,991
• Household income: $115,487
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -349.94%
• Current HPI: 338.3328
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.71%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+549.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Listed $129,900 MOMLS
• 2021-07-13 Sold (MLS) $16,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-07-05 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-06-28 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-06-26 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-06-15 Listed $23,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-09-22 Listed $20,000 MOMLS