Plan 1511 Modeled Plan · Ellenton, FL 34221

$290,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,511 sqft · SingleFamily · 482 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Tile flooring
• Smart thermostat
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• TILE FLOORING
• FLUSH KITCHEN BREAKFAST BAR
• KITCHEN USB CHARGING PORT
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• SMART THERMOSTAT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Inventory type: New construction (Plan)
• Financial info: Listing status: Active; List price: $290,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan: Plan 1511 Modeled; Single-level living (Plan)
• Exterior features: Located at 3459 Canberra Pl, Palmetto FL 34221

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area of 1511 (listed living area)

🏗️ New construction. The $290,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $347,530.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $291k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-397 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 482 days — a 12% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $253,782 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 482 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.89%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $347,530
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3312 Canberra Pl	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,511 (0%)	3mo	$313,000	$207	91
3324 Canberra Pl	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,511 (0%)	5mo	$333,513	$221	90
3328 Canberra Pl	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,511 (0%)	7mo	$320,513	$212	89
3347 Lannister Cv	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,511 (0%)	1mo	$352,962	$234	86
4444 29th Avenue Cir E	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+3%)	3mo	$435,000	$280	67
2435 29th Ln E	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,478 (-2%)	1mo	$339,999	$230	61
2439 29th Ln E	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,478 (-2%)	2mo	$337,999	$229	60
3105 46th St E	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,578 (+4%)	6mo	$320,000	$203	59
2431 29th Ln E	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,478 (-2%)	2mo	$337,500	$228	58
3404 29th St E	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,666 (+10%)	7mo	$459,900	$276	58
4557 35th Avenue Cir E	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,421 (-6%)	14mo	$350,000	$246	52
3162 27th Ct E	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,294 (-14%)	11mo	$322,000	$249	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-88,988
• Equity at exit: $51,818

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-138,620
• Equity at exit: $30,048

Cash invested: $97,308 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,538 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,822
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$434 /mo · $5,213/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,040

Max offer price $290,109

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,882
• Closing costs: $10,426
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3911 Willow Walk Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1978	$2,636	$1.33	3d	1	0.62mi
3616 Mossy Limb Ct Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	2068	$2,500	$1.21	11d	1	0.64mi
4042 Wayfarer Way Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,600	$1.42	16d	1	0.71mi
4648 Lindever Ln Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,289	$1.53	2d	1	0.94mi
4916 Willow Breeze Way Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	1997	$2,245	$1.12	2d	1	1.08mi
3303 54th St E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1285	$2,000	$1.56	3d	1	1.10mi
5185 Rocky Coast Pl Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1529	$2,450	$1.60	14d	1	1.14mi
5514 Night Owl Ter Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1752	$2,650	$1.51	16d	1	1.29mi
5520 Flagstone Trl Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2248	$3,200	$1.42	23d	1	1.35mi
5029 Rocky Coast Pl Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$2,400	$1.62	10d	1	1.40mi
6010 33rd Dr E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$2,115	$1.64	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,990 Active 482 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,990 Active 481 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,990 Active 480 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,990 Active 479 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,990 Active 477 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,990 Active 476 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $290,990 Active 474 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,990 Active 473 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,990 Active 472 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $290,990 Active 471 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,990 Active 467 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,990 Active 466 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,990 Active 465 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,990 Active 464 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,454
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,467
• − Property taxes: −$5,213
• − Insurance: −$1,738
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,436
• − Management: −$2,436
• − Depreciation: −$10,110
• Taxable loss: −$10,946
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,627
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,135/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B