145 W Pinon Dr · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$210,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1979 8,320 sqft lot Est $167k · 26% over $65/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful mountain view! This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on a very large lot with front and back yards. The living room features windows that frame that everchanging mountain view and a beautiful patio stretches across the entire back of the home for outdoor enjoyment The kitchen looks out on a small hidden patio with a backdrop of mature shrubs for privacy. There's loads of cupboard space in both the kitchen and entryway/laundry room. The primary bedroom includes one full wall of closet space and a large bathroom with walk-in shower. An enclosed Arizona room has sliding glass doors to allow fresh air in year-round. This home includes a workshop plus a storage area in front of the carp

Key facts

• Back yard
• Hidden patio
• Large lot

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEW
• LARGE LOT
• BACK YARD
• HIDDEN PATIO
• MATURE SHRUBS
• CUPBOARD SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: Pima County - TH
• HOA & community: Community association (Desert Pueblo) with $65 monthly fee; HOA fee includes street maintenance; Community amenities: clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, recreation room, shuffleboard, fitness center, rec center, street lights, walking trail

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Water provided by a water company; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Faces west
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Decorative gravel; Borders common area; East/West exposure; Paved road access; Spa/Hot Tub (on property)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Electric range; Electric oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Exhaust fan; Water purifier; Workshop (outbuilding)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-116/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 411 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $210k implies a 296% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,845 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.20%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $166,656
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
145 W Pinon Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	0mo	$195,000	$145	100
30 W Rosa Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	2mo	$143,500	$107	93
182 W Palma Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,320 (-2%)	3mo	$155,000	$117	89
240 W Cumaro Dr	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,392 (+4%)	1mo	$135,000	$97	79
161 W Olive Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,347 (+0%)	1mo	$107,500	$80	78
266 W Pinon Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-8%)	2mo	$168,000	$136	74
105 W Mora Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	3mo	$249,000	$173	70
267 W Tuna Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	3mo	$189,000	$151	70
32 W Pinon Dr	0.09mi	2/1.0	1,190 (-12%)	5mo	$118,000	$99	69
270 W Pinon	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	5mo	$179,000	$124	68
1840 N Pacana Way	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	2mo	$160,000	$110	65
269 W Mora Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-14%)	1mo	$150,000	$130	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-30,343
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-8,583
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 411
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,628 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $508/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,641

Max offer price $208,297

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1321 N Paseo Maravilloso Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1781	$1,500	$0.84	3d	1	0.30mi
1567 N Paseo La Tinaja Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,250	$1.17	1d	1	0.41mi
1792 N Rio Mayo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1678	$1,550	$0.92	17d	1	0.51mi
1091 W Beta St Green Valley, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	917	$1,350	$1.47	1d	5	0.61mi
457 W Windham Blvd Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1369	$2,300	$1.68	1d	1	0.64mi
724 W Rio Moctezuma Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1234	$1,450	$1.18	10d	1	0.81mi
312 E Calle Cerita Green Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,700	$1.21	10d	1	0.83mi
2181 N Avenida Tabica Green Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,695	$1.18	1d	1	0.85mi
513 W Knotwood St Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1593	$1,600	$1.00	14d	1	0.98mi
513 W Knotwood St Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1593	$1,600	$1.00	16d	1	0.98mi
18878 S Esherton Dr Green Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1329	$1,850	$1.39	23d	1	1.00mi
18828 S Esherton Dr Green Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	1466	$1,625	$1.11	3d	1	1.07mi
335 E Calle Nacrita Green Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,785	$1.03	2d	1	1.11mi
2535 N Avenida Tabica Green Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,725	$1.16	43d	1	1.13mi
18744 S Via Santa Bonita Sahuarita, AZ	2.0	2.0	1261	$1,595	$1.26	43d	1	1.16mi
390 N Calle de las Profetas Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	965	$1,250	$1.30	3d	1	1.18mi
359 N Calle del Chancero Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1061	$1,475	$1.39	16d	1	1.22mi
327 N Calle del Chancero Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1343	$1,400	$1.04	3d	1	1.26mi
257 E Los Rincones Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1800	$2,200	$1.22	23d	1	1.29mi
230 N Calle Acuarela Unit 230 Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	965	$1,400	$1.45	3d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   price $210,000
3. 2026-01-23
   listed $215,000 Active
4. 1983-08-01
   soldstatus $53,000
5. 1978-12-01
   soldstatus $8,500
6. 1977-10-01
   soldstatus $5,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $508 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,386 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$878/yr (+$73/mo · 172.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$508
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,563
• − Management: −$1,563
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,796
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$911
• After-tax cash flow: $795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+3718.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $210,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-23 Listed $215,000 MLSSAZ
• 1983-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1978-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,500 Public Records
• 1977-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $5,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $508 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.