1408 Orlando Pl · Poinciana, FL 34759

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,684 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2005 8,843 sqft lot $83/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Investor special! Cash offers preferred. 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on an oversized lot with strong value-add potential. Property needs TLC and is being sold as-is. Functional layout, large backyard, roof replaced in 2017, and updated water heater. Excellent opportunity for investors, flippers, or cash buyers looking for their next project. Convenient Kissimmee location near schools, parks, shopping, and major roadways.

Key facts

• Near schools
• Large backyard
• Updated water heater

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• LARGE BACKYARD
• ROOF REPLACED
• UPDATED WATER HEATER
• KISSIMMEE LOCATION
• NEAR SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.2 acres (about 822 m²); Road surface: Asphalt
• Financial info: Annual taxes available (not included per instructions)
• HOA & community: HOA: Poinciana Village / First Service Residential; Monthly HOA fee of $83 (required)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Facing east; PUD zoning; Homestead status
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1 story
• Exterior features: Balcony; Exterior lighting; Irrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; High ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laurel Elementary School (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 1,058 students, 50% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $215k implies a 641% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,344 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.28%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-17,042
• Equity at exit: $47,004

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-6,583
• Equity at exit: $45,298

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,913 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,165/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,769

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1406 Orlando Pl Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,450	$1.15	3d	1	0.02mi
1364 Congo Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	3d	1	0.24mi
1417 Kissimmee Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,629	$1.06	23d	1	0.37mi
1402 Kissimmee Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1800	$1,850	$1.03	21d	1	0.44mi
308 Bass Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1614	$2,100	$1.30	3d	1	0.46mi
308 Bass Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1613	$1,850	$1.15	23d	1	0.46mi
313 Amberjack Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,750	$1.41	23d	1	0.55mi
1243 Amazon Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,835	$1.16	3d	1	0.57mi
303 Shad Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1930	$1,999	$1.04	23d	1	0.66mi
301 Shad Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,000	$0.94	21d	1	0.67mi
459 Rio Grande Ln Poinciana, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$1,745	$0.87	23d	1	0.70mi
1701 Pilchard Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,050	$1.19	23d	1	0.72mi
610 Alafia Pl Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,200	$1.34	23d	1	0.80mi
1731 Minnow Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,750	$1.45	23d	1	0.82mi
1658 Redfin Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,810	$1.09	3d	1	0.82mi
1660 Redfin Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,975	$1.19	3d	1	0.83mi
1662 Redfin Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1852	$1,940	$1.05	23d	1	0.84mi
223 Grouper Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,595	$1.08	23d	1	0.85mi
352 Kingfish Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,950	$1.17	23d	1	0.85mi
260 Grouper Ct Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,400	$1.24	3d	1	0.87mi
205 Dogfish Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,680	$1.06	14d	1	0.91mi
1630 Tench Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1944	$1,995	$1.03	3d	1	0.94mi
241 Grouper Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1762	$2,000	$1.14	23d	1	0.96mi
557 Peace Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1547	$1,699	$1.10	3d	1	0.98mi
1613 Sail Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$1,625	$0.95	23d	1	1.01mi
320 Kingfish Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	3.0	1606	$1,795	$1.12	23d	1	1.02mi
202 Snapper Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,050	$1.23	3d	1	1.05mi
1884 Snapper Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1682	$1,985	$1.18	14d	1	1.07mi
1637 Sail Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,720	$1.38	3d	1	1.08mi
310 Dogfish Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	23d	1	1.09mi
116 Sail Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,805	$1.09	12d	1	1.10mi
1707 Sail Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,015	$1.11	3d	1	1.10mi
321 Drum Ln Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1785	$1,715	$0.96	19d	1	1.12mi
1805 Hudson Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1531	$1,835	$1.20	23d	1	1.13mi
1851 Superior Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,800	$1.08	23d	1	1.20mi
106 Herring Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,575	$1.48	3d	1	1.28mi
104 Herring Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1699	$1,925	$1.13	3d	1	1.29mi
10 Trout Way Unit B Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,749	$1.51	21d	1	1.31mi
10 Trout Way Unit A Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,750	$1.51	23d	1	1.31mi
12 Herring Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1055	$1,613	$1.53	23d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $225,000 Active
2. 2025-10-08
   status Pending
3. 2025-10-08
   historical
4. 2025-10-07
   price $250,000
5. 2025-09-29
   listed $260,000 Active
6. 2004-12-02
   soldstatus $29,000
7. 2004-12-02
   soldstatus $135,500
8. 2004-11-30
   soldstatus $29,000
9. 2004-08-13
   listed $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,165 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$619/yr (+$52/mo · 53.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,165
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,837
• − Management: −$1,837
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$2,247
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$539
• After-tax cash flow: $1,913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+675.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Listed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $135,500 Public Records
• 2004-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 2004-11-30 Sold (MLS) $29,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-13 Listed $29,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,165 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.