2512 Alonda Ln NE · Lacey, WA 98516

$114,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2000 Est $88k · 30% over ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 3 bedroom home in 55+ park! Features open concept, vaulted ceiling & lots of windows for natural light. Kitchen shows great with custom cabinets, glass backsplash, eating bar; with all appliances included. Great room concept with cozy propane stove in living area. Split bedroom plan, large primary bedroom with an oversized walk-in shower in the primary bathroom. Sliding glass door with remote control blind. Newer electric furnace with heat pump/AC. Large storage building with spacious 2 vehicle carport. Low maintenance yard, backs up to trees! Close to shopping, medical facilities, and I-5. Space rent includes water, garbage, and community septic system. Community clubhouse

Key facts

• Glass backsplash
• Custom cabinets
• Open concept

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• VAULTED CEILING
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• GLASS BACKSPLASH
• EATING BAR
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Buyer brokerage compensation: 3%
• Financial info: Land lease: $1,250; Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Located in Alonda Villa manufactured home park (129 homes); Park amenities include clubhouse and common area; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water (City of Lacey by park); Septic (by park); Puget Sound Energy for power; Cable: Xfinity; Internet: Xfinity
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home (Goldenwest OK44002F); One level; Vaulted ceilings; Bath off primary; Walk-in closet; Metal skirting; Property condition: Very good; Mobile home remains in place
• Construction: Cement plank and wood construction; Built-up and composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Manufactured after 6/15/1976
• Exterior features: Cement planked and wood exterior; Awnings; Landscaped; Patio/porch/deck; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 1 bathtub; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Powered by electric and propane
• Interior features: Fireplace (gas); Water heater (electric)
• Laundry & utility: Utility room; Water heater located in guest bedroom closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $114k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $114k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.6% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: South Bay Elementary (588 students, 40% FRL); North Thurston High School (1,440 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $792 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.8% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $112,782 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.05%
• DSCR: 2.96
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $87,912
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1507 Alonda Ln NE	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+5%)	1mo	$35,000	$28	81
1519 Alonda Ln NE	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-3%)	8mo	$60,000	$52	76
1350 Alonda Ln NE	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-3%)	7mo	$50,000	$43	75
2310 Alonda Ln NE	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,218 (+2%)	24mo	$127,000	$104	75
2309 Alonda Ln NE	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+13%)	2mo	$73,000	$54	74
2204 Alonda Ln NE	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+13%)	2mo	$80,000	$60	69
1414 Alonda Ln NE	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,247 (+5%)	17mo	$60,000	$48	66
1704 Alonda Ln NE	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (+9%)	10mo	$140,000	$108	66
2206 Alonda Ln NE	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+13%)	16mo	$159,000	$118	57
2003 Alonda Ln NE	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+13%)	19mo	$99,000	$74	54
4611 17th Ln NE #17	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-11%)	22mo	$142,500	$135	48
1361 Alonda Ln NE	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+13%)	23mo	$149,500	$111	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $58,272
• Equity at exit: $17,072

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $155,053
• Equity at exit: $9,900

Cash invested: $32,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98516

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,443 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$600
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,264/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $1,177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $954

Max offer price $114,500

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,625
• Closing costs: $3,435
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
927 College Ln NE Unit A Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1390	$2,300	$1.65	43d	1	0.30mi
925 Bradley St NE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,650	$1.89	43d	1	0.41mi
5224 15th Ave NE Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$2,630	$2.99	13d	258	0.47mi
5499 15th Ave NE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	904	$2,535	$2.80	13d	26	0.64mi
1848 Mapleview Ct NE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1489	$3,000	$2.01	43d	1	0.73mi
606 Lilly Rd NE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	966	$2,725	$2.82	13d	7	0.88mi
522 Lilly Rd NE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	781	$1,550	$1.98	13d	6	0.94mi
3724 Ensign Rd NE Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,849	$2.01	13d	5	1.10mi
4410 6th Ave SE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$2,425	$2.47	13d	14	1.19mi
122 Lilly Rd NE Unit 104 Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	20d	1	1.25mi
122 Lilly Rd NE Unit 507 Olympia, WA	3.0	1.0	800	$1,900	$2.38	20d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,500 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,500 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,500 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,500 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,500 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,500 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $114,500 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,500 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,500 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,500 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,500 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,500 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,500 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,500 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    remarks 695-char remark
16. 2026-05-30
    listed $114,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,264 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,264 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,414
• − Property taxes: −$1,264
• − Insurance: −$572
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,346
• − Management: −$2,346
• − Depreciation: −$3,331
• Taxable income: $13,049
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,132
• After-tax cash flow: $10,990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 29,177
• Household income: $98,892
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1202.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Two or more races 14% Asian 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.16%
• Current HPI: 323.7121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.75%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-8.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $114,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-30 Sold (MLS) $135,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-14 Listed $124,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,264 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.