514 Paulding Rd · Ellisville, MS 39437

$153,000

3 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 165 Days on market

Built 1978 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this unique, one-of-a-kind home featuring an incredible outdoor entertainment space. With 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and ample acreage, this property offers both comfort and room to roam. Located just minutes from Jones College, it combines rural charm with modern accessibility. The home includes a Ring security system and even a hidden room for securing valuables. The backyard offers a fenced area for livestock and a small, tranquil creek.

Key facts

• Hidden room
• Ring security system
• Small creek

Tags

• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINMENT SPACE
• RING SECURITY SYSTEM
• HIDDEN ROOM
• FENCED AREA FOR LIVESTOCK
• SMALL CREEK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $174 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#123 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Jones County School District (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #40 of 130 in MS (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jones County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $153k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.73%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-13,716
• Equity at exit: $22,813

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,311
• Equity at exit: $13,229

Cash invested: $42,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39437

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,505 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $990/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,285

Max offer price $153,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $261	-5% $217	+0% $174	+5% $131	+10% $87
Rent	-10% $55	-5% $115	+0% $174	+5% $233	+10% $293
Rate	-1.0pp $251	-0.5pp $213	base $174	+0.5pp $134	+1.0pp $94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,250
• Closing costs: $4,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-03-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   price $153,000
3. 2026-02-03
   price $149,900
4. 2025-10-13
   listed $166,000 Active
5. 2025-04-14
   status Active
6. 2025-04-05
   status Pending
7. 2024-10-07
   price $176,000
8. 2024-09-11
   listed $190,000 Active
9. 2024-07-25
   price $190,000
10. 2024-07-25
    price $190,000
11. 2024-04-24
    price $219,000
12. 2024-04-24
    price $219,000
13. 2024-04-04
    listed $223,000 Active
14. 2024-04-04
    listed $223,000 Active
15. 2010-08-12
    soldstatus $65,000
16. 2008-06-30
    soldstatus $59,000
17. 2005-11-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $990 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,209 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$219/yr (+$18/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,061
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,570
• − Property taxes: −$990
• − Insurance: −$1,562
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,445
• − Management: −$1,445
• − Depreciation: −$4,451
• Taxable loss: −$402
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$97
• After-tax cash flow: $2,184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jones County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802280
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,051
• Composite: 33.24/100
• National rank: #5520
• State rank: #40 of 130 in MS

Livability — Ellisville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #13645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellisville, MS
• City population: 12,287
• Population (ZIP): 12,287

Population outlook (Jones County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,800 people
• By 2030: 68,773 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 68,087 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 66,241 · -3.7%
• By 2075: 58,600 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 45,744 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jones

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.8) · D 26.2% · R 73.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.6pp · 2024: -46.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.8 2020: R+42.2 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+38.2 2008: R+38.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.84%
• Current HPI: 142.2369
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+159.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Pending — HAAR
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $153,000 HAAR
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $149,900 HAAR
• 2025-10-13 Listed $166,000 HAAR
• 2025-04-14 Relisted — HAAR
• 2025-04-05 Pending — HAAR
• 2024-10-07 Price Changed $176,000 HAAR
• 2024-09-11 Listed $190,000 HAAR
• 2024-07-25 Price Changed $190,000 HAAR
• 2024-07-25 Price Changed $190,000 LBOR
• 2024-04-24 Price Changed $219,000 HAAR
• 2024-04-24 Price Changed $219,000 LBOR
• 2024-04-04 Listed $223,000 LBOR
• 2024-04-04 Listed $223,000 HAAR
• 2010-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2008-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $990 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.