22 Lexington · Barnegat, NJ 08005

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,130 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1977 1,620 sqft lot $221/sqft · 10% above area Est $227k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• ARV discount +3.0/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attached Town Home built in 1977, 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths with a fenced in sun deck, a large living room and eat in kitchen. 15 minutes to Long Beach Island.

Key facts

• Eat in kitchen
• Large living room
• Fenced in sun deck

Tags

• FENCED IN SUN DECK
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• EAT IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $681 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $227k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.6% in Barnegat — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#310 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Barnegat Township School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 472 in NJ (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $250k implies a 248% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.67%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $227,145
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: 10.02%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Lexington Blvd	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,129 (-0%)	8mo	$232,000	$205	90
135 Windward Dr	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,104 (-2%)	2mo	$375,000	$340	81
7 Shelli Ter	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+4%)	2mo	$399,350	$340	74
149 Windward Dr	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,179 (+4%)	7mo	$370,000	$314	73
132 Schooner Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,179 (+4%)	3mo	$375,000	$318	71
18 Starboard Ave	0.24mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,179 (+4%)	9mo	$370,000	$314	65
105 Windward Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,232 (+9%)	7mo	$300,000	$244	62
109 Schooner Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,244 (+10%)	10mo	$370,000	$297	59
87 Robin Ln	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,166 (+3%)	6mo	$340,000	$292	57
61 Sandpiper Rd	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,166 (+3%)	3mo	$325,000	$279	54
29 Georgetown Blvd	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,128 (-0%)	12mo	$350,000	$310	54
80 Quail Rd	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,266 (+12%)	7mo	$300,000	$237	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,802
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $58,064
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08005

• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,863 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,001/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,002

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $822	-5% $751	+0% $681	+5% $610	+10% $539
Rent	-10% $454	-5% $567	+0% $681	+5% $794	+10% $907
Rate	-1.0pp $806	-0.5pp $744	base $681	+0.5pp $616	+1.0pp $550

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 Potomac Ct Barnegat, NJ	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	5d	1	0.05mi
27 Potomac Ct Barnegat, NJ	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,950	$2.61	3d	1	0.06mi
79 Lexington Blvd Barnegat, NJ	3.0	1.5	1130	$2,950	$2.61	4d	1	0.08mi
81 Schooner Ave Barnegat, NJ	3.0	1.0	1179	$2,500	$2.12	2d	1	0.12mi
165 Village Dr Barnegat, NJ	3.0	1.0	1218	$2,500	$2.05	1d	1	0.16mi
35 Mizzen Dr Barnegat, NJ	3.0	2.5	1358	$2,750	$2.03	1d	1	0.54mi
3 Cardinal Pl Barnegat, NJ	2.0	2.0	1166	$2,350	$2.02	1d	1	0.72mi
125 Lower Shore Rd Barnegat, NJ	3.0	2.0	1184	$2,800	$2.36	1d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $249,900 156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    Attached Town Home built in 1977, 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths with a fenced in sun deck, a large living room and eat in kitchen. 15 minutes to Long Beach Island.

16. 2026-03-18
    listed $239,900 Active 156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    Attached Town Home built in 1977, 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths with a fenced in sun deck, a large living room and eat in kitchen. 15 minutes to Long Beach Island.

17. 2015-05-29
    historical
18. 2014-01-25
    listed $109,900
19. 2014-01-05
    historical
20. 2013-01-05
    listed $139,900
21. 2012-08-25
    historical
22. 2010-08-25
    listed $139,900
23. 2010-08-12
    historical
24. 2009-08-13
    listed $139,900
25. 2009-04-23
    soldstatus $71,898
26. 2009-03-11
    historical
27. 2009-01-23
    listed $89,100
28. 2003-07-29
    soldstatus $92,000
29. 2003-07-14
    soldstatus $87,000
30. 2003-03-07
    listed $87,000
31. 2001-02-04
    historical
32. 2001-01-24
    soldstatus $47,000
33. 2001-01-10
    soldstatus $47,000
34. 2000-08-03
    listed $47,000
35. 2000-08-03
    listed $47,000
36. 1986-07-15
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,001 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,112 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,111/yr (+$176/mo · 105.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,001
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,749
• − Management: −$2,749
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable income: $4,342
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,042
• After-tax cash flow: $7,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barnegat Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3416470
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $63,645
• Composite: 31.15/100
• National rank: #6059
• State rank: #285 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Barnegat

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #310
• US rank: #9556

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 26,866
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,866
• Household income: $93,584
• Rent vs Own: 11.4% rent · 88.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 384.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.01%
• Current HPI: 344.3189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+354.4% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $249,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $239,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-05-29 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-01-25 Listed $109,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-01-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-01-05 Listed $139,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-08-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-08-25 Listed $139,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-08-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-08-13 Listed $139,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-04-23 Sold (MLS) $71,898 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-03-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-01-23 Listed $89,100 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 2003-07-14 Sold (MLS) $87,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-03-07 Listed $87,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-02-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 2001-01-10 Sold (MLS) $47,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2000-08-03 Listed $47,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2000-08-03 Listed $47,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1986-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,001 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.