Plan 1286 Plan · Parrish, FL 34219

$329,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Open kitchen overlooking great room * Sizable closet at all bedrooms * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Garage access from laundry room * Designer-selected lighting fixtures * Stainless steel appliance package * Open floor plan * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks * Great shopping nearby * Near local schools * Community garden * Close to golf courses

Key facts

• Smart thermostat
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 98 days

Tags

• SIZABLE CLOSET AT ALL BEDROOMS
• WALK-IN KITCHEN PANTRY
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• ENERGY STAR CERTIFIED HOME

🏗️ New construction. The $329,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $375,700.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-343 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $285k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2703 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $285,297 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.91%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $375,700
• List price: $329,990
• Delta: -12.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14159 Crutchfield Ct	1.38mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-1%)	0mo	$278,000	$219	62
14134 Crutchfield Ct	1.43mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-1%)	1mo	$288,000	$227	62
14178 Crutchfield Ct	1.37mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-1%)	2mo	$311,000	$245	61
14166 Crutchfield Ct	1.39mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-1%)	3mo	$278,000	$219	60
14127 Crutchfield Ct	1.42mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-1%)	5mo	$275,000	$217	59
14143 Crutchfield Ct	1.40mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-1%)	7mo	$300,000	$236	57
4739 Willow Bend Ave	1.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,439 (+12%)	0mo	$325,000	$226	40
7022 161st Ter E	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,545 (+20%)	6mo	$349,900	$226	39
7718 Satterfield Ter	1.30mi	3/2.0	1,491 (+16%)	3mo	$312,000	$209	38
16507 66th Ln E	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+24%)	4mo	$350,000	$219	38
14158 Crutchfield Ct	1.40mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+15%)	7mo	$313,640	$211	34
4629 Willow Bend Ave	1.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,525 (+19%)	2mo	$380,000	$249	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-91,014
• Equity at exit: $56,018

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-139,481
• Equity at exit: $32,484

Cash invested: $105,196 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active
• Months of supply: 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $338,990 ($228/sqft)
• Median days on market: 168 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +28.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2703
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,853 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$470 /mo · $5,636/yr
• Insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $-343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,287

Max offer price $326,135

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-83	-5% $-213	+0% $-343	+5% $-472	+10% $-602
Rent	-10% $-568	-5% $-455	+0% $-343	+5% $-230	+10% $-117
Rate	-1.0pp $-153	-0.5pp $-247	base $-343	+0.5pp $-440	+1.0pp $-539

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,925
• Closing costs: $11,271
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4723 Willow Bend Ave Parrish, FL	2.0	2.0	1524	$2,800	$1.84	72d	1	1.28mi
7148 Boggy Creek Pl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,889	$1.49	35d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $329,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan (Plan 1286)Single-story (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,286 total living area)

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $329,990 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $329,990 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $329,990 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $329,990 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $329,990 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $329,990 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $329,990 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $329,990 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $329,990 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $329,990 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $329,990 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $329,990 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-07-18
    days on market $329,990 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $329,990 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $329,990 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-07-15
    days on market $329,990 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-07-13
    days on market $329,990 Active 73 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $329,990 Active 72 DOM
19. 2026-07-11
    days on market $329,990 Active 71 DOM
20. 2026-07-10
    days on market $329,990 Active 70 DOM
21. 2026-07-09
    days on market $329,990 Active 69 DOM
22. 2026-07-07
    days on market $329,990 Active 67 DOM
23. 2026-07-06
    days on market $329,990 Active 66 DOM
24. 2026-07-05
    days on market $329,990 Active 65 DOM
25. 2026-07-03
    days on market $329,990 Active 63 DOM
26. 2026-07-02
    days on market $329,990 Active 62 DOM
27. 2026-07-01
    days on market $329,990 Active 61 DOM
28. 2026-06-30
    days on market $329,990 Active 60 DOM
29. 2026-06-29
    days on market $329,990 Active 59 DOM
30. 2026-06-28
    days on market $329,990 Active 58 DOM
31. 2026-06-27
    days on market $329,990 Active 57 DOM
32. 2026-06-27
    days on market $329,990 Active 56 DOM
33. 2026-06-25
    days on market $329,990 Active 54 DOM
34. 2026-06-22
    days on market $329,990 Active 52 DOM
35. 2026-06-22
    days on market $329,990 Active 51 DOM
36. 2026-06-18
    days on market $329,990 Active 48 DOM
37. 2026-06-17
    days on market $329,990 Active 47 DOM
38. 2026-06-16
    days on market $329,990 Active 46 DOM
39. 2026-06-15
    days on market $329,990 Active 45 DOM
40. 2026-06-13
    days on market $329,990 Active 43 DOM
41. 2026-06-13
    days on market $329,990 Active 42 DOM
42. 2026-06-10
    days on market $329,990 Active 40 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $329,990 Active 39 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $329,990 Active 38 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $329,990 Active 37 DOM
46. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,990 Active 33 DOM
47. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,990 Active 32 DOM
48. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,990 Active 31 DOM
49. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,990 Active 30 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,045
• − Property taxes: −$5,636
• − Insurance: −$1,879
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,739
• − Management: −$2,739
• − Depreciation: −$10,929
• Taxable loss: −$10,731
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,575
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,535/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,430–$19,290 screening

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It has a good location with nearby parks, shopping, and schools. The property is ready for a new owner and can be further enhanced with some cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained front yard can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Modern smart home features can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Appliance maintenance — Regular maintenance of stainless steel appliances can ensure they remain in good condition and attract more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School A FL #185/2,144 Nat'l #1,912/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $329,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan (Plan 1286)Single-story (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,286 total living area)