121 Mountain View Dr · Hemlock Farms, PA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $511 – $949
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 91°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 3/10 · Minor
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 6.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +21.9/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Appreciation +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +7.0/10.0
- DSCR +7.0/10.0
- Schools +5.3/10.0
- Livability +3.4/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.2/5.0
$249,000
121 Mountain View Dr · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428
4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,936 sqft · SingleFamily
· 104 Days on market
Built 1970
0.60 ac lot
$129/sqft
· 30% below area
Est $357k · 30% under
$250/mo HOA · 8% of rent
↓ 17% since listing
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Great LocationAcross the street from pond, this country chalet offers 4 bedrooms 2 1/2 baths with main level master bedroom suite. Living/dining / kitchen combo, hardwood floors, great room with large stone fireplace, sunroom , office and more. 2 driveways, open deck and close to fitness center, heated pools, tennis, pickle ball, etc.
Key facts
- Heated pools
- Open deck
- Tennis
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $249k. Condition is rated fair.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
- Recommended offer: $227k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.7% in Hemlock Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
- Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Wallenpaupack South El Sch (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #654 of 1,518 statewide, top 47%, 255 students, 72% FRL); Wallenpaupack Area Ms (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #257 of 512 statewide, top 52%, 644 students, 59% FRL); Wallenpaupack Area Hs (math 74% / reading 67%, grade B+, #48 of 437 statewide, top 11%, 990 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 44% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: 552 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $2,993/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
- Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Recommended offer
$226,590
(9.0% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
- Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.20% ✓
- Cap rate
- 8.19%
- Cash-on-cash
- 6.78%
- DSCR
- 1.30
- GRM
- 6.9
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $357,121
- List price
- $249,000
- Delta
- -30.28%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 137 Lookout Dr | 0.12mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,896 (-2%) | 19mo | $315,000 | $166 | 68 |
| 111 Bluestone Dr | 0.47mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 2,016 (+4%) | 12mo | $380,000 | $188 | 54 |
| 106 Lookout Dr | 0.50mi | 4/2.0 | 1,698 (-12%) | 2mo | $246,000 | $145 | 53 |
| 219 Mountain View Dr | 0.67mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 2,012 (+4%) | 9mo | $455,000 | $226 | 48 |
| 802 Rimrock Ct Unit 802 Rimrock Lane, Hawley, PA 18428 | 0.73mi | 4/2.5 | 1,728 (-11%) | 4mo | $345,000 | $200 | 45 |
| 106 Basswood Dr | 0.58mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,800 (-7%) | 14mo | $270,000 | $150 | 43 |
| 129 Remuda Dr | 0.75mi | 3/3.5 (-1) | 2,092 (+8%) | 0mo | $360,000 | $172 | 42 |
| 105 Longridge Dr | 0.68mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,692 (-13%) | 6mo | $340,000 | $201 | 35 |
| 137 Remuda Dr | 0.68mi | 3/2.5 (-1) | 1,664 (-14%) | 8mo | $280,000 | $168 | 33 |
| 140 Long Ridge Dr | 0.69mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 2,153 (+11%) | 14mo | $405,000 | $188 | 31 |
| 124 Long Ridge Dr | 0.59mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,664 (-14%) | 19mo | $298,500 | $179 | 27 |
| 800 Dogwood Ct W | 0.75mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,656 (-14%) | 14mo | $295,000 | $178 | 22 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- 29.2%
- Equity multiple
- 3.31×
- Total profit
- $160,902
- Equity at exit
- $224,319
10-year hold
- IRR
- 25.4%
- Equity multiple
- 7.52×
- Total profit
- $454,494
- Equity at exit
- $483,752
Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 62 Landlord-Friendly
- State Pennsylvania
- 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.
Balanced market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 16 active · 18 under contract
- Months of supply
- 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $339,000 ($202/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 123 d
- This list price
- 12% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -8.6% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 18428
- Home prices YoY
- 9.2%
- Active inventory
- 552
- Price-to-rent
- 6.9×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $2,993 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,306
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
- Insurance
- −$104
- HOA
- −$250
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$629
- Net cashflow
- $394
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$2,495
Max offer price
$249,000
Occupancy floor
82%
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $566 | -5% $480 | +0% $394 | +5% $308 | +10% $222 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $157 | -5% $276 | +0% $394 | +5% $512 | +10% $630 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $519 | -0.5pp $457 | base $394 | +0.5pp $329 | +1.0pp $264 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $62,250
- Closing costs
- $7,470
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 6 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 135 Highland Dr Hawley, PA | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2594 | $3,500 | $1.35 | 0d | 1 | 0.28mi |
| 105 Bluestone Dr Hawley, PA | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1840 | $2,300 | $1.25 | 9d | 1 | 0.41mi |
| 101 Blueshelf Ln Lords Valley, PA | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1772 | $2,500 | $1.41 | 0d | 1 | 0.45mi |
| 131 Surrey Dr Hawley, PA | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1952 | $2,650 | $1.36 | 139d | 1 | 0.56mi |
| 106 Corral Ln Hawley, PA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2150 | $4,000 | $1.86 | 99d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 101 Pommel Dr Lords Valley, PA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1691 | $4,400 | $2.60 | 0d | 1 | 1.50mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Subdivision: Hemlock FarmsDirections provided for 121 Mountain View Drive, Hemlock Farms, Hawley PA 18428
- HOA & community
- Part of a homeowners associationAnnual HOA fee of $2,995 (additional one-time fee noted)HOA amenities include clubhouse, indoor pool, pool, tennis courts, basketball court, trails, playground, fitness center, spa/hot tub, sauna, beach access, dog park, security, trash service, gated community
Exterior
- Parking
- Driveway
- Security
- 24-hour securityGated community
- Utilities
- 200+ amp electric serviceSeptic tank
- Home design
- Single-family houseTwo levelsResidential propertyEntry level not specifiedFacing direction not specified
- Construction
- Vinyl sidingShingle roofBlock foundationBuilt date not specified
- Exterior features
- DeckViewsWooded lotCommunity lake accessPrivate paved road with private maintenanceShed(s)
Interior
- Kitchen
- Electric rangeRefrigeratorDishwasher not listed
- Flooring
- CarpetVinylWood
- Bathrooms
- Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Baseboard heating (electric)Ceiling fans for cooling
- Interior features
- BarCathedral ceilingsFireplace with stone surround in the family room
- Laundry & utility
- WasherDryer
HOA detail $250/mo · $3,000/yr
- Likely covers
- poolgym
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-23days on market $249,000 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $249,000 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $249,000 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $249,000 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $249,000 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $249,000 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $249,000 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $249,000 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $249,000 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $249,000 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $249,000 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $249,000 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $249,000 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $249,000 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $249,000 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-09-02days on market $249,000 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $249,000 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $249,000 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $249,000 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $249,000 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $249,000 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-08-26days on market $249,000 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $249,000 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $249,000 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $249,000 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $249,000 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $249,000 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $249,000 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $249,000 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $249,000 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $249,000 Active 67 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $249,000 Active 66 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $249,000 Active 65 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $249,000 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $249,000 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $249,000 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $249,000 Active 61 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $249,000 Active 60 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $249,000 Active 59 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $249,000 Active 58 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $249,000 Active 56 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $249,000 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $249,000 Active 54 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $249,000 Active 53 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $249,000 Active 50 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $249,000 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $249,000 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $249,000 Active 47 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $249,000 Active 45 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $249,000 Active 43 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $35,920
- − Mortgage interest
- −$13,948
- − Property taxes
- −$3,735
- − Insurance
- −$1,245
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,874
- − Management
- −$2,874
- − HOA
- −$3,000
- − Depreciation
- −$7,244
- Taxable income
- $1,001
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$240
- After-tax cash flow
- $4,487/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos
45/100
Moderate rehab
Est. rehab $48,400–$87,120 screening
This single-family home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathrooms, which would significantly increase its resale and rental value.
Components & finishes AI
Roof asphalt shingle · good
Flooring wood
Repairs flagged
- Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
- Moderate bathroom fixtures — outdated and in need of replacement
- Moderate kitchen countertops — dated and in need of replacement
Value-add opportunities
- Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
- Both replace outdated bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathrooms would appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
- Both paint interior walls — painting the interior walls would improve the home's curb appeal and make it more marketable ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
D
Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Wallenpaupack South El Sch
D
PA #654/1,518
Nat'l #12,785/41,679
Middle
Wallenpaupack Area Ms
F
PA #257/512
Nat'l #6,005/14,009
High
Wallenpaupack Area Hs
B+
PA #48/437
Nat'l #2,083/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Wallenpaupack Area SD
- NCES district ID
- 4224750
- Math proficiency
- 39% ▼ -10.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 59% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $51,027
- Composite
- 41.97/100
- National rank
- #3345
- State rank
- #192 of 539 in PA
C
Composite livability gradescore 68/100
Livability — Hemlock Farms
- Score
- 68/100
- State rank
- #884
- US rank
- #9421
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living B+
Crime A+
Employment C+
Housing A+
Health & safety A+
User ratings A
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Hemlock Farms, PA
- County
- Pike · 53,548 people
- Population (ZIP)
- 12,446
- Household income
- $75,463
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 13% of renters
Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 53,548 people
- By 2030
- 51,622 · -3.6%
- By 2040
- 46,490 · -13.2%
- By 2050
- 40,372 · -24.6%
- By 2075
- 31,951 · -40.3%
- By 2100
- 26,821 · -49.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (85%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Puerto Rican 5%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 5% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Pike
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 28.60%
- Current HPI
- 340.8254
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.68%
- F500 in state
- 34
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 2 | $309B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $27B |
|
||
| Telecommunications / Media | 1 | $124B |
|
||
| Industrial Distribution | 1 | $22B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 1 | $20B |
|
||
| Chemicals / Materials | 1 | $18B |
|
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Price history
-16.7% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-11 Listed $249,000 PWMLS
- 2025-05-27 Listed $299,000 PWMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…