391 Butternut Rd · Lake Wallenpaupack Estates, PA 18445

$95,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,108 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1988 2.05 ac lot $86/sqft · 62% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

No Community Dues!!! 2+ Acres in Sterling Township. Minutes from Local Shopping and Local Attractions. Mobile in NEED of Major TLC or to be REMOVED.

Key facts

• Local attractions
• 2 acres
• Local shopping

Tags

• 2 ACRES
• LOCAL SHOPPING
• LOCAL ATTRACTIONS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street paved parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Water: Shared well (see remarks)
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-level / one story; Residential, manufactured home (single family use); Property condition: Fixer
• Construction: Built as a manufactured house; Construction materials: Other; Roof: Other; No basement / foundation details not provided
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Shed(s); Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (type: Other); No cooling
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $846 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Western Wayne SD (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #165 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.18%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,801
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -67.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $65,325
• Equity at exit: $42,652

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.91×
• Total profit: $157,154
• Equity at exit: $65,682

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18445

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,925 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,636/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $846

Break-even live

Break-even rent $853

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $900	-5% $873	+0% $846	+5% $819	+10% $793
Rent	-10% $694	-5% $770	+0% $846	+5% $922	+10% $998
Rate	-1.0pp $894	-0.5pp $870	base $846	+0.5pp $822	+1.0pp $797

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 148-char remark
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $95,000 Active 148-char remark
3. 2004-01-06
   soldstatus $65,000
4. 2000-05-18
   soldstatus $57,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,636 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,636 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,636
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,848
• − Management: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $9,204
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,209
• After-tax cash flow: $7,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Wayne SD
• NCES district ID: 4226070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,358
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2964
• State rank: #165 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lake Wallenpaupack Estates

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,488

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 2% Estonian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.99%
• Current HPI: 349.2006
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+67.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Sold (MLS) $96,000 PWMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $95,000 PWMLS
• 2004-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2000-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,636 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.