3245 E Wagon Trl · Hernando, FL 34442

$78,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 908 sqft · Manufactured public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1982 5,480 sqft lot Est $133k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hernando- This two bedroom one and a half bath mobile home features inside laundry, updated flooring and fresh paint. Master bedroom with large closet and half bath.

Key facts

• Near shopping
• Centrally located
• Large addition

Tags

• CENTRALLY LOCATED
• LARGE ADDITION
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR BIKE PATH
• NEAR LAKE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1 total parking space; Attached carport; Driveway; Paved and unpaved areas
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a single-wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Privacy wood fencing; Shed(s); Corner, level lot; Paved roads (county road)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Open floor plan; Crawl space foundation
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $671 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $71k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 5.9% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#402 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hernando Elementary School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 813 students, 71% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 447 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,980 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.89%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,476
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4285 N Trapper Ter	0.34mi	2/1.0	924 (+2%)	13mo	$75,000	$81	68
4878 N Redwood Ave	0.35mi	2/2.0	958 (+6%)	7mo	$109,000	$114	67
2975 E Blackberry Ln	0.27mi	2/2.0	810 (-11%)	1mo	$145,000	$179	67
4662 N Custer Ter	0.16mi	2/2.0	812 (-11%)	14mo	$120,000	$148	61
3277 E Lariat Loop	0.13mi	2/2.0	784 (-14%)	10mo	$113,900	$145	61
2855 E Kathy Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+6%)	7mo	$195,000	$203	57
3670 E Squaw Valley Dr	0.42mi	2/1.0	1,018 (+12%)	4mo	$75,000	$74	55
4361 N Desertsand Ter	0.22mi	2/1.5	784 (-14%)	23mo	$115,000	$147	47
4737 N Apache Trl	0.38mi	2/1.0	784 (-14%)	20mo	$138,000	$176	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $30,150
• Equity at exit: $11,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $81,422
• Equity at exit: $6,744

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34442

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 447
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,537 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,212/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $671

Break-even live

Break-even rent $687

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $716	-5% $694	+0% $671	+5% $649	+10% $627
Rent	-10% $550	-5% $611	+0% $671	+5% $732	+10% $793
Rate	-1.0pp $711	-0.5pp $691	base $671	+0.5pp $651	+1.0pp $631

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $78,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $78,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $78,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $78,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $78,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $78,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $78,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricestatus $78,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-05-25
    status Pending
14. 2026-05-11
    status Active
15. 2026-02-28
    historical
16. 2026-01-28
    status Active
17. 2026-01-19
    status Pending
18. 2025-12-21
    listed $73,000 Active
19. 2023-10-25
    soldstatus $76,000
20. 2023-10-24
    soldstatus $76,000 Closed 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Hernando- This two bedroom one and a half bath mobile home features inside laundry, updated flooring and fresh paint. Master bedroom with large closet and half bath.

21. 2023-09-30
    status Pending 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Hernando- This two bedroom one and a half bath mobile home features inside laundry, updated flooring and fresh paint. Master bedroom with large closet and half bath.

22. 2023-09-18
    price $84,000
23. 2023-09-10
    listed $84,000 Active 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Hernando- This two bedroom one and a half bath mobile home features inside laundry, updated flooring and fresh paint. Master bedroom with large closet and half bath.

24. 2023-09-10
    listed $94,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Hernando- This two bedroom one and a half bath mobile home features inside laundry, updated flooring and fresh paint. Master bedroom with large closet and half bath.

25. 2011-04-11
    soldstatus $22,500
26. 2010-02-27
    listed $24,900
27. 1985-01-01
    soldstatus $16,000
28. 1981-11-01
    soldstatus $18,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$1,212
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,475
• − Management: −$1,475
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $7,249
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,740
• After-tax cash flow: $6,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #7137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 17,281
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,281
• Household income: $57,259
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 314.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.70%
• Current HPI: 273.3262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+294.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Pending — RACC
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — RACC
• 2026-02-28 Delisted — RACC
• 2026-01-28 Relisted — RACC
• 2026-01-19 Pending — RACC
• 2025-12-21 Listed $73,000 RACC
• 2023-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-24 Sold (MLS) $76,000 RACC
• 2023-09-30 Pending — RACC
• 2023-09-18 Price Changed $84,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-10 Listed $94,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-10 Listed $84,000 RACC
• 2011-04-11 Sold (MLS) $22,500 RACC
• 2010-02-27 Listed $24,900 RACC
• 1985-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records
• 1981-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,212 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.