3500 Bullock Ln #54 · San Luis Obispo, CA 93401

$170,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 1 Days on market

Built 1974 Est $187k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring All Offers!!! Seller Very Anxious!!! New Toilet, Kitchen Sink And Counter, Linol. In Kit Being Replaced Front Porch Being Replaced, Show And Sell Today. .Thanks Lot Description: 400

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community pool
• Large grass field

Tags

• VAULTED LIVING ROOM CEILING
• GENEROUSLY SIZED YARD
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• LARGE GRASS FIELD
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Willow Creek Country Estates
• HOA & community: Land lease: $560 monthly; Land lease covers pool access

Exterior

• Parking: 1 uncovered space; 1 garage space (total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/Public water
• Home design: Single-story; Entry on front; Mobile home remains (18' x 40')
• Construction: Year built reported by seller
• Exterior features: Community pool; Park amenities include golf course, biking, hiking, and park access

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Dry bar; Dumbwaiter; Front entry
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Has laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $170k).
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 2.1% in San Luis Obispo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#132 in CA, #4,576 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Luis Coastal Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #118 of 517 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,104 units permitted in San Luis Obispo County in 2024 (273 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Luis Obispo County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $170k implies a 486% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.94%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,200
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1255 Orcutt Rd Unit B29	0.18mi	2/1.5	720 (0%)	20mo	$172,500	$240	72
1255 Orcutt Rd Unit B18	0.13mi	2/1.5	688 (-4%)	15mo	$189,950	$276	72
1255 Orcutt Unit B26	0.13mi	2/1.0	673 (-6%)	15mo	$175,000	$260	70
1121 Orcutt Rd #68	0.16mi	2/1.0	800 (+11%)	20mo	$135,000	$169	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $44,633
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $143,921
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93401

• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,840 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $1,068

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
791 Orcutt Rd San Luis Obispo, CA	1.0	1.0	651	$2,750	$4.22	21d	3	0.48mi
3150 Rockview Pl #8 San Luis Obispo, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$2,475	$4.12	43d	1	0.65mi
2800 Broad St San Luis Obispo, CA	1.0	1.0	464	$2,500	$5.39	43d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $170,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,076
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,726
• − Management: −$2,726
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $10,756
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,581
• After-tax cash flow: $10,241/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Luis Coastal Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634800
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,428
• Composite: 46.4/100
• National rank: #2455
• State rank: #118 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Luis Obispo

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #4576

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Luis Obispo, CA
• County: San Luis Obispo County · 224,651 people
• City population: 54,204
• Metro: San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA
• Population (ZIP): 29,202
• Household income: $96,824
• Rent vs Own: 52.1% rent · 47.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2050.0

Population outlook (San Luis Obispo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 306,977 people
• By 2030: 320,378 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 343,933 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 366,853 · +19.5%
• By 2075: 428,329 · +39.5%
• By 2100: 460,687 · +50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Luis Obispo

• 2024 margin: D (+10.9) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.5pp toward D · 2008: 5.4pp · 2024: 10.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.9 2020: D+13.1 2016: D+8.3 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+5.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -796.84%
• Current HPI: 359.9248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.41%
• Metro: San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+471.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $170,000 CRMLS
• 1999-12-23 Sold (MLS) $29,000 CRMLS
• 1999-12-23 Listing Removed — NSBCRMLS
• 1999-09-04 Listed $29,750 CRMLS
• 1999-09-04 Listed $29,750 NSBCRMLS