Stamford Plan · Montgomery, TX 77356

$614,990

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 4,066 sqft · SingleFamily · 123 Days on market

Excellent condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Coming home is the best part of every day with the beautiful and spacious Stamford floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Walden Creek. The streamlined kitchen provides an easy culinary layout for the resident chef while granting a delightful view of the sunny gathering areas. Expertly placed energy-efficient windows help the family and dining spaces shine with natural light. Privacy and personality make the main-level guest suite and trio of upstairs bedrooms great places to thrive. An en suite Owner's Bath and sizable walk-in closet contribute to the everyday getaway of this Owner's Retreat.

Key facts

• 3 garage spots
• Listed 123 days

🏗️ New construction. The $614,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $1,129,525.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $615k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6k ($-70k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (53.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (59.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (59.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 0.1% vs local median 2.5% in Montgomery — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stewart Creek El (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 738 students, 46% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1575 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $34k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($541k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,577 (59.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 60% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.22% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -22.17%
• DSCR: 0.01
• GRM: 37.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,129,525
• List price: $614,990
• Delta: -45.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18896 Harbor Side Blvd	0.22mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,887 (-4%)	6mo	$1,199,000	$308	68
11365 Lake Oak Dr	0.67mi	5/5.0	3,996 (-2%)	5mo	$875,000	$219	60
18752 Palm Beach Boulevard Blvd	0.55mi	5/4.0	3,912 (-4%)	7mo	$1,499,880	$383	60
16059 Walden Rd	0.43mi	5/5.0	4,444 (+9%)	4mo	$2,500,000	$563	59
11420 Grand Pine Dr	0.49mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,938 (-3%)	13mo	$1,100,000	$279	52
77 La Jolla Cir	0.50mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,926 (-3%)	18mo	$965,000	$246	47
11635 Renaissance Dr	0.59mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,627 (-11%)	1mo	$1,099,000	$303	46
11520 Grandview Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,686 (-9%)	4mo	$929,000	$252	43
11585 Grandview Dr	0.69mi	5/5.0	4,350 (+7%)	14mo	$1,249,999	$287	43
11432 Lake Oak Dr	0.64mi	5/5.5	4,479 (+10%)	12mo	$1,500,000	$335	39
18911 Mystic Pt	0.61mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,632 (-11%)	9mo	$1,150,000	$317	37
63 La Jolla Cir	0.72mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,527 (-13%)	18mo	$775,000	$220	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -66.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.78×
• Total profit: $-562,368
• Equity at exit: $168,416

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.15×
• Total profit: $-996,824
• Equity at exit: $97,661

Cash invested: $316,267 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 49 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 26.7 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $648,900 ($189/sqft)
• Median days on market: 30 d
• This list price: 37% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +47.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1575
• Price-to-rent: 20.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,486 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,923
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,412 /mo · $16,943/yr
• Insurance: −$471
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-5,842

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,881

Max offer price $284,159

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-5,062	-5% $-5,452	+0% $-5,842	+5% $-6,232	+10% $-6,623
Rent	-10% $-6,039	-5% $-5,940	+0% $-5,842	+5% $-5,744	+10% $-5,646
Rate	-1.0pp $-5,273	-0.5pp $-5,555	base $-5,842	+0.5pp $-6,135	+1.0pp $-6,433

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $282,381
• Closing costs: $33,886
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Status: Active
• Financial info: Listing price: $634,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 garage/parking spaces
• Home design: New construction — Stamford planSingle-family property (plan inventory)
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory (plan year)Construction details per Stamford plan (specific materials not provided)
• Exterior features: Living area of 4066 (per plan)Located at 18515 Scarlet Paintbrush Dr, Montgomery, TX

Interior

• Kitchen: Included as part of Stamford plan (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open plan living areas (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $614,990 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $614,990 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $614,990 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $614,990 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $614,990 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $614,990 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $614,990 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $614,990 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $614,990 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $614,990 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $614,990 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $614,990 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $614,990 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-09-06
    price $614,990 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $619,990 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $619,990 Active 104 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $619,990 Active 102 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $619,990 Active 100 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $619,990 Active 98 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $619,990 Active 97 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $619,990 Active 96 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $619,990 Active 94 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $619,990 Active 93 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $619,990 Active 92 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $619,990 Active 91 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $619,990 Active 90 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $619,990 Active 89 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $619,990 Active 88 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $619,990 Active 87 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $619,990 Active 86 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $619,990 Active 85 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $619,990 Active 84 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $619,990 Active 83 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $619,990 Active 82 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $619,990 Active 81 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $619,990 Active 80 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $619,990 Active 79 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $619,990 Active 78 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $619,990 Active 77 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $619,990 Active 75 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $619,990 Active 74 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $619,990 Active 73 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $619,990 Active 72 DOM
44. 2026-08-01
    price $619,990 Active 69 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $634,990 Active 69 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $634,990 Active 67 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    remarks 699-char remark
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $634,990 Active 66 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $634,990 Active 62 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $634,990 Active 61 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$63,271
• − Property taxes: −$16,943
• − Insurance: −$5,648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,386
• − Management: −$2,386
• − Depreciation: −$32,859
• Taxable loss: −$93,664
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$22,479
• After-tax cash flow: $-47,626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Stamford Plan by David Weekley Homes in Walden Creek is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious floor plan and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Stewart Creek El C TX #686/4,322 Nat'l #10,846/41,679 High Montgomery H S C TX #327/1,632 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Status: Active
• Financial info: Listing price: $634,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 garage/parking spaces
• Home design: New construction — Stamford planSingle-family property (plan inventory)
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory (plan year)Construction details per Stamford plan (specific materials not provided)
• Exterior features: Living area of 4066 (per plan)Located at 18515 Scarlet Paintbrush Dr, Montgomery, TX

Interior

• Kitchen: Included as part of Stamford plan (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open plan living areas (new construction plan)