811 E New Braunfels · Seguin, TX 78155

$164,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 134 Days on market

Built 1969 0.31 ac lot $103/sqft · 25% below area Est $220k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

** This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,608 sq ft of opportunity on a generous .31-acre lot. With solid bones and a spacious yard, this property is a blank canvas ready for your renovation ideas. Conveniently located near shopping, the hospital, and downtown Seguin, it's the perfect project for investors or creative buyers looking to add value. Sold **As Is**. Motivated seller-bring your vision and schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Generous lot
• 0.31 acre lot

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• SPACIOUS YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1342 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.23%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,832
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -24.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1124#B E Kingsbury St	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,596 (-1%)	6mo	$170,000	$107	72
1124 E Kingsbury St Unit B	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,596 (-1%)	6mo	$170,000	$107	71
704 E Krezdorn St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+1%)	6mo	$209,900	$129	70
1008 E College St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+1%)	6mo	$350,000	$216	66
815 E Humphreys St	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,631 (+1%)	8mo	$179,900	$110	66
116 W Weinert	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,656 (+3%)	3mo	$215,000	$130	65
227 E College St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,658 (+3%)	0mo	$249,900	$151	61
808 College	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,698 (+6%)	2mo	$289,500	$170	58
124 Perciful Ave	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,738 (+8%)	3mo	$351,180	$202	57
1149 Spruce	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,436 (-11%)	2mo	$205,000	$143	53
925 E Humphreys St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,840 (+14%)	7mo	$349,000	$190	49
920 N River	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,393 (-13%)	6mo	$235,000	$169	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-20,299
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-13,478
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1342
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,558 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,079/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,401

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $218	-5% $171	+0% $124	+5% $78	+10% $31
Rent	-10% $1	-5% $63	+0% $124	+5% $186	+10% $247
Rate	-1.0pp $207	-0.5pp $166	base $124	+0.5pp $81	+1.0pp $38

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
527 Elley St Seguin, TX	3.0	3.0	1090	$1,325	$1.22	24d	1	0.27mi
1102 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,395	$1.02	13d	1	0.36mi
1107 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,445	$1.05	20d	1	0.37mi
1107 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,395	$1.02	3d	1	0.37mi
1112 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,494	$1.09	13d	1	0.39mi
1114 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,449	$1.06	44d	1	0.39mi
1116 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,395	$1.02	5d	1	0.40mi
1119 Burek Cross Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,395	$1.02	5d	1	0.41mi
726 E Humphreys St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,500	$1.20	24d	1	0.43mi
1128 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,395	$1.02	5d	1	0.44mi
1131 Renee Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,450	$1.06	44d	1	0.44mi
1128 Stanley Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,600	$1.17	44d	1	0.45mi
1601 Hays St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,275	$1.17	5d	1	0.47mi
1143 Stanley Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,450	$1.06	15d	1	0.48mi
1516 Lucille St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	1372	$1,445	$1.05	15d	1	0.50mi
526 E Baxter St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,350	$1.08	24d	1	0.51mi
1152 Stanley Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	1372	$1,395	$1.02	5d	1	0.52mi
1155 Stanley Way Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,450	$1.06	24d	1	0.52mi
1302 Canary Ln Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,850	$1.42	2d	1	0.60mi
611 E Martindale St Unit B Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	2052	$1,500	$0.73	18d	1	0.73mi
1339 Mockingbird Ln Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,975	$1.36	44d	1	0.76mi
223 W Baxter St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,664	$1.28	2d	1	0.77mi
1441 Robin Ln Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	2097	$1,800	$0.86	2d	1	0.95mi
1400 E Walnut St Seguin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1042	$1,775	$1.70	2d	10	0.99mi
1386 E Walnut St Seguin, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,270	$1.15	44d	1	1.01mi
301 Westbend Cir Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,750	$1.07	13d	1	1.07mi
324 Mar Hill St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	1236	$1,395	$1.13	17d	1	1.07mi
2551 N Guadalupe St Seguin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	955	$1,278	$1.34	20d	5	1.21mi
2551 N Guadalupe St Unit 4106 Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1084	$1,300	$1.20	44d	1	1.21mi
2551 N Guadalupe St Unit 3108 Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1263	$1,449	$1.15	24d	1	1.21mi
2551 N Guadalupe St Unit 1308 Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1263	$1,449	$1.15	44d	1	1.21mi
917 8th St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,375	$1.06	5d	1	1.27mi
1331 Hidalgo St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,364	$1.05	22d	1	1.40mi
227 Lopez St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,249	$0.96	13d	1	1.45mi
222 Garcia St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,215	$0.94	2d	1	1.47mi
228 Garcia St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,275	$0.98	5d	1	1.47mi
219 Garcia St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,449	$1.12	5d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,900 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $164,900 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $164,900 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-02-04
    listed $164,900 New 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    * * This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,608 sq ft of opportunity on a generous . 31-acre lot. With solid bones and a spacious yard, this property is a blank canvas ready for your renovation ideas. Conveniently located near shopping, the hospital, and downtown Seguin, it's the perfect project for investors or creative buyers looking to add value. Sold * * As Is * * . Motivated seller-bring your vision and schedule a showing today!

14. 2026-02-04
    listed $164,900 Active 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    * * This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,608 sq ft of opportunity on a generous . 31-acre lot. With solid bones and a spacious yard, this property is a blank canvas ready for your renovation ideas. Conveniently located near shopping, the hospital, and downtown Seguin, it's the perfect project for investors or creative buyers looking to add value. Sold * * As Is * * . Motivated seller-bring your vision and schedule a showing today!

15. 2017-07-31
    historical
16. 2017-07-31
    historical
17. 2017-05-17
    price $84,900
18. 2017-05-04
    price $84,500
19. 2017-05-01
    listed $87,900 Active
20. 2017-03-01
    listed $87,900 New
21. 1995-11-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,079 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,018 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: +$938/yr (+$78/mo · 45.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$2,079
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,496
• − Management: −$1,496
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$1,232
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$296
• After-tax cash flow: $1,786/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+87.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Listed $164,900 LERA
• 2026-02-04 Listed $164,900 CTXMLS
• 2017-07-31 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2017-07-31 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2017-05-17 Price Changed $84,900 LERA
• 2017-05-04 Price Changed $84,500 CTXMLS
• 2017-05-01 Listed $87,900 CTXMLS
• 2017-03-01 Listed $87,900 LERA
• 1995-11-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,079 · -36.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.