103 Harper Grove Cir · Ocean Springs, MS 39564

$239,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,521 sqft · Townhouse · 415 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition $158/sqft · at area comps Est $250k · at est. ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 103 Harper Grove Circle in Ocean Springs, Mississippi, one of our new D.R. Horton townhomes in Harper Grove Townhomes. Entering the community from Groveland Road onto Harper Grove Circle, this home is on the left. The Sabal is an interior townhome unit featuring a single car garage. With approximately 1,521 square feet, this thoughtfully designed floorplan includes 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, giving you the flexibility and comfort your lifestyle demands. On the main level, you'll find an open-concept layout where the kitchen, dining, and living areas flow together seamlessly. The kitchen is equipped with shaker-style cabinetry, quartz countertops, an undermount sink, and steel appliances, including a smooth-top range, microwave with hood, and a quiet dishwasher. A pantry adds convenience and storage space. Upstairs, all three bedrooms are designed with luxury vinyl plank flooring, no carpet in this home. Each room offers ample closet space and can easily be adapted to serve as a guest room, home office, or hobby space. The secondary bathroom features a tub/shower combo, while the primary suite includes a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom with a standing shower, double vanity with quartz countertops, and linen shelving. The Sabal includes D.R. Horton's Home is Connected Smart Home package, giving you control of many home features from your smart device whether you're at home or away. This home is also being built to FORTIFIED Gold HomeTM certification so see your Sales Representative for details. Pictures are of a similar home and not necessarily of the subject property. Pictures are representational only.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Undermount sink
• Large walk-in pantry

Tags

• INTERIOR TOWNHOME UNIT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SHAKER-STYLE CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• UNDERMOUNT SINK
• LARGE WALK-IN PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $240k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.3% in Ocean Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#2 in MS, #420 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute F.
• Ocean Springs School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 130 in MS (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pecan Park Elementary School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #27 of 375 statewide, top 8%, 530 students, 99% FRL); Ocean Springs Upper Elementary Scho (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #12 of 179 statewide, top 6%, 1,332 students, 100% FRL); Ocean Springs High School (math 77% / reading 64%, grade B+, #1 of 197 statewide, top 0%, 1,899 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 33% district-wide (67 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 892 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 415 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $193,472 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 415 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.31%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,879
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -3.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Harper Grove Cir	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	3mo	$253,090	$166	96
123 Harper Grove Cir	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	5mo	$239,900	$158	94
113 Harper Grove Cir	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	6mo	$244,900	$161	80
137 Harper Grove Cir	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	0mo	$239,900	$158	79
115 Harper Grove Cir	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	8mo	$244,900	$161	78
129 Harper Grove Cir	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	2mo	$239,900	$158	77
135 Harper Grove Cir	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	1mo	$239,900	$158	77
127 Harper Grove Cir	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	2mo	$239,900	$158	77
131 Harper Grove Cir	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	2mo	$249,900	$164	77
125 Harper Grove Cir	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	4mo	$239,900	$158	76
139 Harper Grove Cir	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,710 (+12%)	2mo	$269,900	$158	52
109 Harper Grove Cir	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,710 (+12%)	9mo	$274,900	$161	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-50,326
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-67,155
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.2 mo (24%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $242,900 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 233 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +2.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 39564

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 892
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,935 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,598/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,099

Max offer price $221,166

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $36	-5% $-47	+0% $-129	+5% $-212	+10% $-295
Rent	-10% $-282	-5% $-206	+0% $-129	+5% $-53	+10% $23
Rate	-1.0pp $-9	-0.5pp $-68	base $-129	+0.5pp $-192	+1.0pp $-255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3500 Groveland Rd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0–3.0	2.0	1173	$1,750	$1.49	62d	1	0.12mi
1221 King Henry Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1599	$1,800	$1.13	93d	1	0.39mi
3825 Timberlake Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,200	$1.34	70d	1	0.45mi
7003 Ute Ct Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,195	$1.10	70d	1	0.60mi
1200 Deana Rd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,337	$1.26	93d	1	0.67mi
1200 Deana Rd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,296	$1.22	70d	1	0.67mi
1200 Deana Rd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,405	$1.32	62d	1	0.67mi
3910 Yosemite Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1070	$1,595	$1.49	93d	1	0.73mi
106 Booth Cir Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,500	$1.19	62d	1	0.84mi
132 Gettysburg Cir Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	3.0	1689	$2,195	$1.30	70d	1	0.86mi
2718 Government St Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,800	$1.19	93d	1	1.12mi
4008 Breezy Hill Ln Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	3.0	1600	$3,200	$2.00	62d	1	1.17mi
156 Lafayette Cir Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,800	$1.06	70d	1	1.27mi
237 Saratoga Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1295	$2,150	$1.66	62d	1	1.37mi
230 Saratoga Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,850	$1.34	62d	1	1.37mi
230 Saratoga Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	93d	1	1.37mi
422 Whispering Pine Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1075	$1,795	$1.67	62d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 415 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $239,900 Active 414 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $239,900 Active 413 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $239,900 Active 412 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $239,900 Active 411 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $239,900 Active 410 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $239,900 Active 407 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $239,900 Active 405 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $239,900 Active 403 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $239,900 Active 401 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $239,900 Active 399 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $239,900 Active 398 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $239,900 Active 397 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $239,900 Active 394 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $239,900 Active 392 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $239,900 Active 391 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $239,900 Active 390 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $239,900 Active 389 DOM
19. 2026-07-12
    days on market $239,900 Active 388 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $239,900 Active 387 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $239,900 Active 386 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on marketlisting id $239,900 Active 385 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $239,900 Active 386 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $239,900 Active 385 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 384 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $239,900 Active 383 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $239,900 Active 382 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $239,900 Active 381 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 380 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 379 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 378 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $239,900 Active 377 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $239,900 Active 376 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $239,900 Active 375 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $239,900 Active 374 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $239,900 Active 373 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $239,900 Active 371 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $239,900 Active 369 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $239,900 Active 368 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $239,900 Active 365 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $239,900 Active 364 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $239,900 Active 363 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $239,900 Active 362 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $239,900 Active 360 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $239,900 Active 359 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $239,900 Active 357 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $239,900 Active 356 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,900 Active 355 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 354 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 349 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$3,598
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,857
• − Management: −$1,857
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$5,713
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,371
• After-tax cash flow: $-182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This townhouse is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for an investor looking to maximize both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bedrooms — Hardwood flooring in the bedrooms can add value and improve the overall look ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both Installing smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 64/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pecan Park Elementary School B- MS #27/375 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 Middle Ocean Springs Middle School B+ MS #3/179 Nat'l #1,406/14,009 High Ocean Springs High School B+ MS #1/197 Nat'l #2,083/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 2803360
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,485
• Composite: 53.35/100
• National rank: #1477
• State rank: #1 of 130 in MS

A Composite livability gradescore 86/100

Livability — Ocean Springs

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #420

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Springs, MS
• County: Jackson County · 146,926 people
• City population: 43,240
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 43,240
• Household income: $78,596
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 204.2244
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $239,900 MLSU
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $239,900 Zillow
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $244,900 Zillow
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $244,900 MLSU
• 2025-06-19 Listed $249,900 Zillow
• 2025-06-18 Listed $249,900 MLSU