2092 Sulphur Mine Rd · Hollymead, VA 22911

$399,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,554 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1973 2.23 ac lot $257/sqft · 22% below area Est $521k · 23% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located on a quiet, short, dead-end road in Northern Albemarle County, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on 2.2 acres and presents a prime opportunity for buyers looking to build equity or customize a property to their exact specifications. Oak hardwood floors throughout, a separate living and dining room, kitchen with updated appliances that overlooks the backyard, primary en suite bedroom, plus full basement with a rec room and wood stove. The lot itself is a standout feature, offering a large, level grass backyard that transitions into mature woods for deep privacy and functional outdoor space. While the setting is exceptionally quiet, it remains highly connected to local infrastructu

Key facts

• 2.23 acre lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 53 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Cable available; Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Detached home; Two stories; Entry foyer
• Construction: Stick built construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: 2.23-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Primary bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Interior features: Primary bedroom and primary bathroom located on the main level; Entrance foyer; Utility room; Partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (basement)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-366 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (33.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.6% in Hollymead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#271 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Baker-Butler Elem (math 67% / reading 78%, grade A, #267 of 1,108 statewide, top 24%, 740 students, 28% FRL); Lakeside Middle (math 76% / reading 84%, grade A+, #24 of 342 statewide, top 8%, 513 students, 23% FRL); Albemarle High (math 70% / reading 85%, grade A-, #83 of 319 statewide, top 28%, 1,987 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,027 (33.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.92%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $521,178
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: -23.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2067 Winterfield Cir	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+1%)	5mo	$549,000	$351	70
3104 Mollifield Ln	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,545 (-1%)	12mo	$410,000	$265	63
1118 Rustic Willow Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+1%)	1mo	$448,000	$285	62
3041 Copper Knoll Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,363 (-12%)	0mo	$437,000	$321	57
2312 Proffit Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+8%)	2mo	$388,000	$231	56
2690 English Oaks Cir	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,641 (+6%)	19mo	$465,000	$283	53
2071 Winterfield Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,353 (-13%)	3mo	$448,000	$331	51
3221 Turnberry Cir	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,778 (+14%)	14mo	$615,000	$346	48
1915 English Oaks Cir N	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,667 (+7%)	22mo	$415,000	$249	46
1889 Steeplechase Run	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,666 (+7%)	3mo	$420,000	$252	43
3119 Turnberry Cir	0.37mi	3/3.0	1,778 (+14%)	18mo	$497,000	$280	37
1745 Sourwood Pl	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,750 (+13%)	12mo	$480,000	$274	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-85,427
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-93,219
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22911

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,346/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $-366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,113

Max offer price $335,328

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-139	-5% $-252	+0% $-366	+5% $-479	+10% $-592
Rent	-10% $-575	-5% $-470	+0% $-366	+5% $-261	+10% $-156
Rate	-1.0pp $-164	-0.5pp $-264	base $-366	+0.5pp $-469	+1.0pp $-575

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3279 Arbor Trce Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.5	1641	$2,100	$1.28	45d	1	0.90mi
2217 Brindle Ln Charlottesville, VA	4.0	3.5	2182	$2,900	$1.33	15d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $399,900 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,900 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,900 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $399,900 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $399,900 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,900 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,900 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,900 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $399,900 Active 31 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    price $399,900 916-char remark
19. 2026-04-29
    listed $415,000 Active 916-char remark
20. 2026-04-24
    historical $415,000 916-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,346 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,279 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$933/yr (+$78/mo · 39.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,803
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$2,346
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,544
• − Management: −$2,544
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$11,665
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,800
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albemarle County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100090
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,851
• Composite: 62.28/100
• National rank: #698
• State rank: #14 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hollymead

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #9656

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Albemarle County · 129,350 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 19,107
• Household income: $128,235
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 532.0

Population outlook (Albemarle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,403 people
• By 2030: 125,829 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 137,705 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 148,058 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 172,223 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 185,628 · +55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 8% Black 7% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Albemarle

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.1) · D 66.3% · R 32.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 34.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.1 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -236.54%
• Current HPI: 220.3768
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $399,900 CAAR
• 2026-04-29 Listed $415,000 CAAR
• 2026-04-24 Coming Soon $415,000 CAAR

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,346 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.