12500 Melville Dr Unit 231 C · Conroe, TX 77356

$140,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 692 sqft · Condo · 75 Days on market

Built 1977 $202/sqft · 18% below area Est $171k · 18% under $250/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the ultimate "permanent vacation" in this chic contemporary condo. Located in the meticulously manicured golf course community of Walden on Lake Conroe, this light and bright home is move-in ready with fresh paint throughout, brand-new window treatments in the living area, & plush new carpet in the primary suite. Relax on your private balcony overlooking the sparkling pool and tranquil canal. Walking distance to Walden’s Lakefront Fine Dining or the lively Breakwater Grill. Steps from premier boating, fishing, and a massive community pool overlooking Lake Conroe. Walden offers an unparalleled amenity package, including a gym, fitness classes, tennis and pickleball courts, a heated exercise pool, and a marina. Enjoy hike and bike trails and a vibrant social calendar packed with community events. Whether seeking a serene weekend retreat or a low-maintenance primary residence, this gem delivers the best of lakefront living.

Key facts

• Tranquil canal
• Community pool
• Private balcony

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• TRANQUIL CANAL
• COMMUNITY POOL
• GYM
• FITNESS CLASSES
• TENNIS COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-238 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (24.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1056 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 12074% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,540 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
11. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
12. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
13. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
14. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
15. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.29%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,882
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -18.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-41,314
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -71.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.76×
• Total profit: $-68,847
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1056
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,240 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,541

Max offer price $105,540

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13151 Walden Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	521	$959	$1.84	2d	1	0.87mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    listed $1,150
16. 2026-04-13
    historical $1,150
17. 2026-04-05
    listed $1,150
18. 2026-04-04
    listed $140,000 Active 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    Experience the ultimate "permanent vacation" in this chic contemporary condo. Located in the meticulously manicured golf course community of Walden on Lake Conroe, this light and bright home is move-in ready with fresh paint throughout, brand-new window treatments in the living area, & plush new carpet in the primary suite. Relax on your private balcony overlooking the sparkling pool and tranquil canal. Walking distance to Walden’s Lakefront Fine Dining or the lively Breakwater Grill. Steps from premier boating, fishing, and a massive community pool overlooking Lake Conroe. Walden offers an unparalleled amenity package, including a gym, fitness classes, tennis and pickleball courts, a heated exercise pool, and a marina. Enjoy hike and bike trails and a vibrant social calendar packed with community events. Whether seeking a serene weekend retreat or a low-maintenance primary residence, this gem delivers the best of lakefront living.

19. 2012-05-04
    soldstatus 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    Open floorplan one bedroom Condo. Great views of canal and pool from the balcony. Parque wood floor in the living area. Updated bathroom. Make your move to Lake Conroe today!

20. 2012-04-13
    historical 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    Open floorplan one bedroom Condo. Great views of canal and pool from the balcony. Parque wood floor in the living area. Updated bathroom. Make your move to Lake Conroe today!

21. 2011-10-25
    listed $44,900 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    Open floorplan one bedroom Condo. Great views of canal and pool from the balcony. Parque wood floor in the living area. Updated bathroom. Make your move to Lake Conroe today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,190
• − Management: −$1,190
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$5,219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,252
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-97.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed for Rent $1,150 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Rental Removed $1,150 HARMLS
• 2026-04-05 Listed for Rent $1,150 HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2012-05-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-04-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-10-25 Listed $44,900 HARMLS