The McGinnis Plan · Cleveland, TN 37323

$310,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,372 sqft · SingleFamily · 77 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

Key facts

• Access to the yard
• Walk-in closets
• Wide entry

Tags

• WIDE ENTRY
• TRADITIONAL DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN AND FAMILY ROOM
• ACCESS TO THE YARD
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

🏗️ New construction. The $310,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $330,622.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $311k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.6% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#55 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Cleveland (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #85 of 139 in TN (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Park View Elementary School (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #231 of 952 statewide, top 26%, 463 students, 0% FRL); Ocoee Middle School (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #81 of 333 statewide, top 26%, 997 students, 0% FRL); Walker Valley High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #28 of 332 statewide, top 9%, 1,498 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 476 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 768 units permitted in Bradley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,583/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bradley County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($292k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,313 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.17%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,622
• List price: $310,900
• Delta: -5.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3948 Billie Ln NE	0.46mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,511 (+6%)	8mo	$336,000	$134	56
4156 Hines Ln NE	0.46mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,511 (+6%)	11mo	$352,840	$141	52
4157 Hines Ln NE	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,164 (-9%)	10mo	$317,000	$146	50
4030 NE Billie Ln	0.54mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,511 (+6%)	12mo	$364,900	$145	48
4012 Wendell Rd NE	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,164 (-9%)	6mo	$275,000	$127	47
2248 Chelle Drive Dr NE	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,164 (-9%)	1mo	$348,495	$161	46
4160 Hines Ln NE	0.45mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,618 (+10%)	10mo	$344,910	$132	44
4055 Wendell Rd NE	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,164 (-9%)	12mo	$330,500	$153	44
4143 Hines Ln NE	0.49mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,618 (+10%)	10mo	$359,000	$137	42
3941 Billie Ln NE	0.47mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,618 (+10%)	11mo	$330,000	$126	42
4015 Wendell Rd NE	0.58mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,618 (+10%)	6mo	$339,070	$130	41
3015 NE 20th St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,148 (-9%)	4mo	$275,000	$128	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-69,088
• Equity at exit: $49,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-80,028
• Equity at exit: $28,586

Cash invested: $92,574 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 38 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.7 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $339,950 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 76 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -12.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 37323

• Home prices YoY: -23.5%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,583 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$413 /mo · $4,959/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $-244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,892

Max offer price $295,289

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-16	-5% $-130	+0% $-244	+5% $-358	+10% $-473
Rent	-10% $-448	-5% $-346	+0% $-244	+5% $-142	+10% $-40
Rate	-1.0pp $-78	-0.5pp $-160	base $-244	+0.5pp $-330	+1.0pp $-417

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,655
• Closing costs: $9,919
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4033 Billie Ln NE Cleveland, TN	4.0	2.5	2804	$2,670	$0.95	93d	1	0.54mi
3221 Rolling Meadow Way Cleveland, TN	4.0	2.0	1768	$2,525	$1.43	93d	1	0.73mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address listed as Cleveland, TN (The McGinnis Plan)
• Financial info: List price provided but excluded from features
• HOA & community: HOA/community details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: Natural gasElectricCentral air (cooling)
• Home design: The McGinnis planNew construction plan
• Construction: Construction details not provided
• Exterior features: Living area listed as 2372 (square footage not displayed per instructions)

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heatingElectric heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan model home (The McGinnis)
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility appliance details provided

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $310,900 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   pricedays on market $310,900 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $321,900 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $321,900 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $321,900 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $321,900 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $321,900 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $321,900 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $321,900 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $321,900 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $321,900 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $321,900 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $321,900 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $321,900 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $321,900 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $321,900 Active 54 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $321,900 Active 53 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $321,900 Active 52 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $321,900 Active 51 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $321,900 Active 50 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $321,900 Active 49 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $321,900 Active 48 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $321,900 Active 47 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $321,900 Active 46 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $321,900 Active 45 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $321,900 Active 44 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $321,900 Active 43 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $321,900 Active 42 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $321,900 Active 41 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $321,900 Active 40 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $321,900 Active 39 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $321,900 Active 38 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $321,900 Active 37 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $321,900 Active 36 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $321,900 Active 35 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $321,900 Active 34 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $321,900 Active 33 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $321,900 Active 30 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $321,900 Active 29 DOM
40. 2026-06-19
    days on market $321,900 Active 27 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $321,900 Active 26 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $321,900 Active 25 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $321,900 Active 24 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $321,900 Active 23 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $321,900 Active 21 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $321,900 Active 20 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $321,900 Active 18 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $321,900 Active 17 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $321,900 Active 16 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $321,900 Active 15 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,998
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,520
• − Property taxes: −$4,959
• − Insurance: −$1,653
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,480
• − Management: −$2,480
• − Depreciation: −$9,618
• Taxable loss: −$8,713
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,091
• After-tax cash flow: $-839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 26 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern fixtures can make the bathrooms more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 21/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mayfield Elementary F TN #654/952 Nat'l #33,738/41,679 Middle Cleveland Middle F TN #147/333 Nat'l #10,204/14,009 High Cleveland High F TN #208/332 Nat'l #14,713/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland
• NCES district ID: 4700690
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,612
• Composite: 21.28/100
• National rank: #8394
• State rank: #85 of 139 in TN

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #7689

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleveland, TN
• County: Bradley County · 114,901 people
• City population: 99,337
• Metro: Cleveland, TN
• Population (ZIP): 31,948
• Household income: $68,768
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Bradley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,901 people
• By 2030: 120,137 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 130,125 · +13.2%
• By 2050: 139,257 · +21.2%
• By 2075: 161,664 · +40.7%
• By 2100: 179,767 · +56.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Subsaharan African 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bradley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.0% · R 78.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -49.7pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+55.3 2016: R+59.1 2012: R+53.9 2008: R+49.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.38%
• Current HPI: 287.3643
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cleveland, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address listed as Cleveland, TN (The McGinnis Plan)
• Financial info: List price provided but excluded from features
• HOA & community: HOA/community details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: Natural gasElectricCentral air (cooling)
• Home design: The McGinnis planNew construction plan
• Construction: Construction details not provided
• Exterior features: Living area listed as 2372 (square footage not displayed per instructions)

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heatingElectric heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan model home (The McGinnis)
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility appliance details provided