3321 Shingle Oak Ter · Sarasota, FL 34237

$200,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · Manufactured public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1974 4,256 sqft lot $210/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

OAKWOOD MANOR WHERE FUN AND FRIENDSHIP HAPPEN UPDATED SARASOTA GEM MOVE IN READY MORE THAN A HOME ITS THE LIFESTYLE YOU HAVE EARNED!!! Discover resort-style living in this beautiful 55+ resident-owned community located within the Sarasota city limits. AFFORDABLE Spanning 90 lush acres, Oakwood Manor offers an incredible lifestyle for just $210/month. Enjoy the clubhouse with a commercial kitchen, event stage, fitness center, and library. Relax in the heated pool and spacious hot tub, or join friends for bocce ball, putt-putt game, ping pong or a pool game if you love playing pickleball like many of our residents brand-new courts conveniently located along the nearby Legacy Trail is just

Key facts

• Pickleball courts
• Bocce ball courts
• Spacious hot tub

Tags

• 55 RESIDENT OWNED COMMUNITY
• HEATED POOL
• SPACIOUS HOT TUB
• BOCCE BALL COURTS
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-550/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#121 in FL, #1,854 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: crime F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.0%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $169k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.98%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-40,657
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-59,738
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34237

• Rents YoY: -5.0%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,855 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,034/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$210
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,913

Max offer price $191,906

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $210 · $2,520/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-09
   status Active
3. 2026-02-09
   price $200,000
4. 2026-02-04
   historical
5. 2025-11-06
   price $209,900
6. 2025-11-05
   listed $204,900 Active
7. 2022-05-19
   soldstatus $169,000
8. 2022-03-04
   listed $169,000 Active
9. 2000-05-05
   soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,034 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,034 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,034
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,781
• − Management: −$1,781
• − HOA: −$2,520
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,872
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$929
• After-tax cash flow: $379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sarasota

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #121
• US rank: #1854

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sarasota, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 261,896
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,367
• Household income: $66,762
• Rent vs Own: 52.4% rent · 47.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 902.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 18% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.08%
• Current HPI: 370.7565
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.03%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+316.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $209,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Listed $204,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $169,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-04 Listed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,034 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.