14522 Tobias Rd · Poplar-Cotton Center, CA 93257

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1951 5,183 sqft lot Est $192k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home being sold as-is. Great opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch or investment potential. Contact agent for more information.

Key facts

• 5,183 sq ft lot
• Built 1951

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Rockford Elementary (rural): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #877 of 1,400 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 320 active listings in the ZIP; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,208 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.04%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,520
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14524 Road 191	0.20mi	2/1.0	648 (-4%)	11mo	$185,000	$285	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-7,810
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $12,786
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93257

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,172 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $506/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $949

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-06
   listed $125,000
2. 2026-05-06
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $506 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$444/yr (+$37/mo · 87.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 63% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$506
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,125
• − Management: −$1,125
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $46
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11
• After-tax cash flow: $2,104/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0633270
• Math proficiency: 30% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,248
• Composite: 33.11/100
• National rank: #10633
• State rank: #877 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Poplar-Cotton Center

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poplar-Cotton Center, CA
• County: Tulare County · 323,826 people
• City population: 1,241
• Metro: Visalia, CA
• Population (ZIP): 80,467
• Household income: $59,704
• Rent vs Own: 44.4% rent · 55.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3028.0

Population outlook (Tulare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,681 people
• By 2030: 496,241 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 518,507 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 534,920 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 548,417 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 513,085 · +5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 23% White 21% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 69%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 52% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulare

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 38.5% · R 59.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+12.1 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -375.52%
• Current HPI: 362.656
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.07%
• Metro: Visalia, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Delisted — TCMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $125,000 TCMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $506 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.