14 Hamilton St · Sag Harbor, NY 11963

$2,300,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 227 Days on market

Built 1950 5,663 sqft lot Est $1691k · 36% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the heart of Sag Harbor's coveted Historical district, this pristine residence offers a blend of charm and modern comfort. Situated just a short distance away from the vibrant town center and the highly sought-after Havens Beach, this property provides an idyllic lifestyle in one of the Hamptons' most cherished enclaves. As you approach the front entrance, a covered screen porch welcomes you into a world of sophistication and elegance. The first floor presents a thoughtful layout that seamlessly integrates various living spaces. The formal living room, with its wood-burning fireplace, exudes a cozy ambiance that's perfect for gatherings, while an expansive den/library provides am

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 227 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $2.30M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($60k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($24k rent vs $2.30M).
• Recommended offer: $2.02M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#427 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sag Harbor Elementary School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 426 students, 22% FRL); Pierson Middle/High School (math 61% / reading 72%, grade B, #763 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 525 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 8% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,643/mo this rent would consume 222% of the median local household income ($128k/yr) (locally 95% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $227k of equity ($16k loan paydown + $211k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (9.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $644k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$365k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.02M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $495k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,024,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.38%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,690,800
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
63 Harbor Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-8%)	13mo	$1,550,000	$1,409	45
241 Hampton St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,045 (-13%)	8mo	$1,010,000	$967	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.19% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $1,570,138
• Equity at exit: $1,937,014

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.22×
• Total profit: $4,651,672
• Equity at exit: $4,041,455

Cash invested: $644,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11963

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,643 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,061
• Tax from tax record: −$626 /mo · $7,515/yr
• Insurance: −$958
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,965
• Net cashflow: $5,032

Break-even live

Break-even rent $17,273

Max offer price $2,300,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $575,000
• Closing costs: $69,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
95 Main St Unit 2 Sag Harbor, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$62,400	$62.40	22d	1	0.55mi
364 Main St Unit B Sag Harbor, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$35,000	$29.17	22d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2024-08-12
   soldstatus $2,195,000
2. 2024-05-24
   status Pending
3. 2024-04-19
   price $2,300,000
4. 2024-02-12
   status Active
5. 2023-10-24
   price $2,399,000
6. 2023-09-23
   price $2,595,000
7. 2023-08-24
   listed $2,795,000 Active
8. 1997-11-14
   soldstatus $212,500
9. 1995-08-10
   soldstatus $205,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,515 · $626/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $23,193 · $1,933/mo
• Expected delta: +$15,677/yr (+$1,306/mo · 208.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $283,715
• − Mortgage interest: −$128,836
• − Property taxes: −$7,515
• − Insurance: −$11,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,697
• − Management: −$22,697
• − Depreciation: −$66,909
• Taxable income: $23,561
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,655
• After-tax cash flow: $54,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sag Harbor Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3625380
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $81,547
• Composite: 55.69/100
• National rank: #1222
• State rank: #175 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sag Harbor

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #427
• US rank: #7428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sag Harbor, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 8,390
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,390
• Household income: $127,746
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 95.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.19%
• Current HPI: 499.3304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.76%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+970.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2024-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $2,195,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-24 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-19 Price Changed $2,300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-12 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-24 Price Changed $2,399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-23 Price Changed $2,595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-24 Listed $2,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $212,500 Public Records
• 1995-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,515 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.