5500 Beach Dr #6 · Lower Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$232,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1981 $333/sqft · 37% below area Est $366k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If hearing the waves crash into the shore is what you want to hear when you open your windows. . THIS is the place you want to buy! This 2 bedroom 1 bath condo is freshly updated and ready for a new owner. Windows, HVAC and roof replaced 2019, water heater replaced 2023. HOA covers community pool, basic cable, garbage water/sewer and lawn service in this quiet beachside community. Location is ~900ft to the nearest beach entrance and complex is 1 block north of Thomas Drive. Close to Navy Base and many nearby restaurants and shopping centers. Washer and Dryer is included. Unit comes with an outside storage area and a small back yard that can be fenced with HOA permission. Call today and be living here in Summer 2026!!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Outside storage area
• Beach entrance

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• BEACH ENTRANCE
• OUTSIDE STORAGE AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $232k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-207 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (30.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.1% in Lower Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#518 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1022 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,982 (30.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.82%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $366,030
• List price: $232,000
• Delta: -36.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-51,549
• Equity at exit: $34,592

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-65,018
• Equity at exit: $20,059

Cash invested: $64,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1022
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,610 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,217
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,984/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,872

Max offer price $195,453

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,000
• Closing costs: $6,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4014 Irwin St Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	697	$1,250	$1.79	21d	1	0.19mi
5004 Thomas Dr Unit 1354961P Panama City, FL	1.0	1.5	731	$2,146	$2.94	13d	1	0.39mi
2617 Cypress St Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$1,300	$1.81	21d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $232,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $232,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $232,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $232,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $232,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $232,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $232,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $232,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $232,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $232,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $232,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $232,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $232,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $232,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $232,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $232,000 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $232,000 Active 78 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    price $233,000 729-char remark

    Show marketing remark (729 chars)

    If hearing the waves crash into the shore is what you want to hear when you open your windows. . THIS is the place you want to buy! This 2 bedroom 1 bath condo is freshly updated and ready for a new owner. Windows, HVAC and roof replaced 2019, water heater replaced 2023. HOA covers community pool, basic cable, garbage water/sewer and lawn service in this quiet beachside community. Location is ~900ft to the nearest beach entrance and complex is 1 block north of Thomas Drive. Close to Navy Base and many nearby restaurants and shopping centers. Washer and Dryer is included. Unit comes with an outside storage area and a small back yard that can be fenced with HOA permission. Call today and be living here in Summer 2026!!

19. 2026-05-04
    status Active 729-char remark

    Show marketing remark (729 chars)

    If hearing the waves crash into the shore is what you want to hear when you open your windows. . THIS is the place you want to buy! This 2 bedroom 1 bath condo is freshly updated and ready for a new owner. Windows, HVAC and roof replaced 2019, water heater replaced 2023. HOA covers community pool, basic cable, garbage water/sewer and lawn service in this quiet beachside community. Location is ~900ft to the nearest beach entrance and complex is 1 block north of Thomas Drive. Close to Navy Base and many nearby restaurants and shopping centers. Washer and Dryer is included. Unit comes with an outside storage area and a small back yard that can be fenced with HOA permission. Call today and be living here in Summer 2026!!

20. 2026-05-04
    price $234,000 729-char remark

    Show marketing remark (729 chars)

    If hearing the waves crash into the shore is what you want to hear when you open your windows. . THIS is the place you want to buy! This 2 bedroom 1 bath condo is freshly updated and ready for a new owner. Windows, HVAC and roof replaced 2019, water heater replaced 2023. HOA covers community pool, basic cable, garbage water/sewer and lawn service in this quiet beachside community. Location is ~900ft to the nearest beach entrance and complex is 1 block north of Thomas Drive. Close to Navy Base and many nearby restaurants and shopping centers. Washer and Dryer is included. Unit comes with an outside storage area and a small back yard that can be fenced with HOA permission. Call today and be living here in Summer 2026!!

21. 2026-05-01
    status Pending 729-char remark

    Show marketing remark (729 chars)

    If hearing the waves crash into the shore is what you want to hear when you open your windows. . THIS is the place you want to buy! This 2 bedroom 1 bath condo is freshly updated and ready for a new owner. Windows, HVAC and roof replaced 2019, water heater replaced 2023. HOA covers community pool, basic cable, garbage water/sewer and lawn service in this quiet beachside community. Location is ~900ft to the nearest beach entrance and complex is 1 block north of Thomas Drive. Close to Navy Base and many nearby restaurants and shopping centers. Washer and Dryer is included. Unit comes with an outside storage area and a small back yard that can be fenced with HOA permission. Call today and be living here in Summer 2026!!

22. 2026-04-14
    price $235,000 729-char remark

    Show marketing remark (729 chars)

    If hearing the waves crash into the shore is what you want to hear when you open your windows. . THIS is the place you want to buy! This 2 bedroom 1 bath condo is freshly updated and ready for a new owner. Windows, HVAC and roof replaced 2019, water heater replaced 2023. HOA covers community pool, basic cable, garbage water/sewer and lawn service in this quiet beachside community. Location is ~900ft to the nearest beach entrance and complex is 1 block north of Thomas Drive. Close to Navy Base and many nearby restaurants and shopping centers. Washer and Dryer is included. Unit comes with an outside storage area and a small back yard that can be fenced with HOA permission. Call today and be living here in Summer 2026!!

23. 2026-03-24
    price $238,000 729-char remark

    Show marketing remark (729 chars)

    If hearing the waves crash into the shore is what you want to hear when you open your windows. . THIS is the place you want to buy! This 2 bedroom 1 bath condo is freshly updated and ready for a new owner. Windows, HVAC and roof replaced 2019, water heater replaced 2023. HOA covers community pool, basic cable, garbage water/sewer and lawn service in this quiet beachside community. Location is ~900ft to the nearest beach entrance and complex is 1 block north of Thomas Drive. Close to Navy Base and many nearby restaurants and shopping centers. Washer and Dryer is included. Unit comes with an outside storage area and a small back yard that can be fenced with HOA permission. Call today and be living here in Summer 2026!!

24. 2026-03-10
    listed $239,000 Active 729-char remark

    Show marketing remark (729 chars)

    If hearing the waves crash into the shore is what you want to hear when you open your windows. . THIS is the place you want to buy! This 2 bedroom 1 bath condo is freshly updated and ready for a new owner. Windows, HVAC and roof replaced 2019, water heater replaced 2023. HOA covers community pool, basic cable, garbage water/sewer and lawn service in this quiet beachside community. Location is ~900ft to the nearest beach entrance and complex is 1 block north of Thomas Drive. Close to Navy Base and many nearby restaurants and shopping centers. Washer and Dryer is included. Unit comes with an outside storage area and a small back yard that can be fenced with HOA permission. Call today and be living here in Summer 2026!!

25. 2023-12-18
    soldstatus $229,900 Closed 837-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER WILL CONSIDER BACKUP OFFERS. Wonderfully maintained 2/1 townhome in quiet New Mexico-style community. This unit has an open concept floor plan and is immaculate with fresh paint, newer windows, ceramic tile floors throughout and newly updated kitchen w/ SS appliances, gorgeous remodeled bathroom, roof (2019), HVAC (2019), water heater (2023). Neighborhood that offers nearby amenities, restaurants and shopping, located only 900ft away from the nearest beach access. Minutes to college, Pier Park, Navy base and more! Backyard may be fenced-in for more privacy per HOA. The nicely manicured quiet community features beautiful landscape, a pool, and grill area. Low HOA only $130 per month covers pool, basic cable, water, garbage and yard work. Flood zone X which means flood insurance is not required.

26. 2023-12-18
    soldstatus $229,900

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER WILL CONSIDER BACKUP OFFERS. Wonderfully maintained 2/1 townhome in quiet New Mexico-style community. This unit has an open concept floor plan and is immaculate with fresh paint, newer windows, ceramic tile floors throughout and newly updated kitchen w/ SS appliances, gorgeous remodeled bathroom, roof (2019), HVAC (2019), water heater (2023). Neighborhood that offers nearby amenities, restaurants and shopping, located only 900ft away from the nearest beach access. Minutes to college, Pier Park, Navy base and more! Backyard may be fenced-in for more privacy per HOA. The nicely manicured quiet community features beautiful landscape, a pool, and grill area. Low HOA only $130 per month covers pool, basic cable, water, garbage and yard work. Flood zone X which means flood insurance is not required.

27. 2023-12-01
    historical Active Under Contract 837-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER WILL CONSIDER BACKUP OFFERS. Wonderfully maintained 2/1 townhome in quiet New Mexico-style community. This unit has an open concept floor plan and is immaculate with fresh paint, newer windows, ceramic tile floors throughout and newly updated kitchen w/ SS appliances, gorgeous remodeled bathroom, roof (2019), HVAC (2019), water heater (2023). Neighborhood that offers nearby amenities, restaurants and shopping, located only 900ft away from the nearest beach access. Minutes to college, Pier Park, Navy base and more! Backyard may be fenced-in for more privacy per HOA. The nicely manicured quiet community features beautiful landscape, a pool, and grill area. Low HOA only $130 per month covers pool, basic cable, water, garbage and yard work. Flood zone X which means flood insurance is not required.

28. 2023-11-13
    price $229,900 837-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER WILL CONSIDER BACKUP OFFERS. Wonderfully maintained 2/1 townhome in quiet New Mexico-style community. This unit has an open concept floor plan and is immaculate with fresh paint, newer windows, ceramic tile floors throughout and newly updated kitchen w/ SS appliances, gorgeous remodeled bathroom, roof (2019), HVAC (2019), water heater (2023). Neighborhood that offers nearby amenities, restaurants and shopping, located only 900ft away from the nearest beach access. Minutes to college, Pier Park, Navy base and more! Backyard may be fenced-in for more privacy per HOA. The nicely manicured quiet community features beautiful landscape, a pool, and grill area. Low HOA only $130 per month covers pool, basic cable, water, garbage and yard work. Flood zone X which means flood insurance is not required.

29. 2023-11-07
    listed $234,900 Active 837-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER WILL CONSIDER BACKUP OFFERS. Wonderfully maintained 2/1 townhome in quiet New Mexico-style community. This unit has an open concept floor plan and is immaculate with fresh paint, newer windows, ceramic tile floors throughout and newly updated kitchen w/ SS appliances, gorgeous remodeled bathroom, roof (2019), HVAC (2019), water heater (2023). Neighborhood that offers nearby amenities, restaurants and shopping, located only 900ft away from the nearest beach access. Minutes to college, Pier Park, Navy base and more! Backyard may be fenced-in for more privacy per HOA. The nicely manicured quiet community features beautiful landscape, a pool, and grill area. Low HOA only $130 per month covers pool, basic cable, water, garbage and yard work. Flood zone X which means flood insurance is not required.

30. 2022-11-06
    price $234,900
31. 2022-11-01
    price $234,990
32. 2022-10-28
    price $235,000
33. 2022-10-25
    price $239,900
34. 2022-10-20
    price $240,000
35. 2022-10-18
    price $246,000
36. 2022-10-14
    price $248,900
37. 2022-10-07
    price $249,000
38. 2022-10-03
    price $250,000
39. 2022-09-15
    listed $279,000 Active
40. 2021-11-29
    soldstatus $183,000
41. 2021-11-22
    soldstatus $183,000
42. 2021-10-07
    listed $179,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,984 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,984 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,984
• − Insurance: −$1,160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,545
• − Management: −$1,545
• − Depreciation: −$6,749
• Taxable loss: −$6,662
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,599
• After-tax cash flow: $-884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lower Grand Lagoon

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #518
• US rank: #9567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lower Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+30.2% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $233,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $234,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $235,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $238,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $239,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $229,900 Public Records
• 2023-12-18 Sold (MLS) $229,900 CPARMLS
• 2023-12-01 Contingent — CPARMLS
• 2023-11-13 Price Changed $229,900 CPARMLS
• 2023-11-07 Listed $234,900 CPARMLS
• 2022-11-06 Price Changed $234,900 CPARMLS
• 2022-11-01 Price Changed $234,990 CPARMLS
• 2022-10-28 Price Changed $235,000 CPARMLS
• 2022-10-25 Price Changed $239,900 CPARMLS
• 2022-10-20 Price Changed $240,000 CPARMLS
• 2022-10-18 Price Changed $246,000 CPARMLS
• 2022-10-14 Price Changed $248,900 CPARMLS
• 2022-10-07 Price Changed $249,000 CPARMLS
• 2022-10-03 Price Changed $250,000 CPARMLS
• 2022-09-15 Listed $279,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $183,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-22 Sold (MLS) $183,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-10-07 Listed $179,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,984 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.